Japanese Quake Has Limited Effect on Southeast Asia Economie

    The disaster in Japan is expected to affect economies in Southeast Asia, but economists²（经济学者） say the damage is likely to be limited. They say the region may even see increased investments from Japan as companies seek to diversify³ away from areas at higher risk from natural disasters.
    Japan supplies Southeast Asia factories with components⁴ and parts put into cars, electronics, and other products for export, including back to Japan.
    That supply chain was disrupted when the earthquake and tsunami⁵ hit Japan's northeast, damaging a nuclear plant and forcing many factories to stop production.
    Many Southeast Asian countries export to Japan. The Japanese market accounts for about 20 percent of Indonesia’s exports and 17 percent of what the Philippines sends abroad, down to smaller amounts from countries including Cambodia, Laos, and Singapore.
    Regional economists say exports may suffer this year. But with Japanese damage assessments⁶ and the situation at the nuclear plant uncertain, estimates of the cost to trade are tentative.
    Tim Condon, the chief Asia economist¹ for ING Financial Markets in Singapore, said a worst-case scenario⁷ would be similar to the 2008 global financial crisis, when Japan’s imports dropped by nearly half.
    "If the earthquake damage is that severe we could see damage on the order of 0.7 percent of GDP in Indonesia, about half that in the case of Philippines, and then something even lower than that in the rest of the Southeast Asian economies. So, it ranges from a chunky number in the case of Indonesia, to kind of a negligible figure in the others."Condon said the best-case scenario would be damage similar to the 1995 Kobe earthquake, which cost Japan about 2 percent of its GDP but saw regional trade recover quickly.
    The World Bank said this week that earthquake and tsunami reconstruction⁸ could cost Japan up to $235 billion and take up to five years.
    But Japan’s economic growth is expected to pick up in the second half of this year as reconstruction gets underway.
    Lei Lei Song, a senior economist with the Asian Development Bank, said that barring any major nuclear contamination, Japan's economy should rebound⁹ relatively¹⁰ quickly, and along with it, the trade with Southeast Asia.
    "We're still assessing the impact in terms of the GDP growth. But, I guess it's very modest.  It would not change the robust¹¹ growth we are currently expecting for Southeast Asian economies," said Song.
    Southeast Asia's economies grew by about 7 percent last year.
    Song said Thailand is one of the countries in Southeast Asia most exposed to economic effects from Japan, partly because of its flourishing auto¹² industry. Thailand is referred to as the Detroit of Southeast Asia because major car companies have factories here.
    Condon said Thailand’s auto factories could have some short-term problems obtaining parts from Japan, but that the disaster would not seriously hurt the industry.
    "My thinking is that it will probably be the reverse," he said. "They will look to diversify their production sites and move things to cheaper and less earthquake-prone destinations."Thailand also is tied closely to Japan’s economy through debt. More than 60 percent of Thailand’s foreign debt is in Japanese yen¹³ and any appreciation¹⁴ raises the costs for paying it back.
    Economists say even if the yen appreciates, though, it will not be difficult for Thailand to deal with it because its external debt is not high.(本文由在线英语听力室整理编辑)

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 diversify   

v.（使）不同，（使）变得多样化

参考例句：

• Our company is trying to diversify.我们公司正力图往多样化方面发展。
• Hills and woods diversify the landscape.山陵和树木点缀景色。

4 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

5 tsunami   

n.海啸

参考例句：

• Powerful quake sparks tsunami warning in Japan.大地震触发了日本的海啸预警。
• Coastlines all around the Indian Ocean inundated by a huge tsunami.大海啸把印度洋沿岸地区都淹没了。

6 assessments   

n.评估( assessment的名词复数 )；评价；（应偿付金额的）估定；（为征税对财产所作的）估价

参考例句：

• He was shrewd in his personal assessments. 他总能对人作出精明的评价。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Surveys show about two-thirds use such assessments, while half employ personality tests. 调查表明，约有三分之二的公司采用了这种测评；而一半的公司则采用工作人员个人品质测试。 来自百科语句

7 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

8 reconstruction   

n.重建，再现，复原

参考例句：

• The country faces a huge task of national reconstruction following the war.战后，该国面临着重建家园的艰巨任务。
• In the period of reconstruction,technique decides everything.在重建时期，技术决定一切。

9 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

10 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

11 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

12 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

13 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

14 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。