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BEIJING, Aug. 29 (Xinhuanet) -- Since the beginning of 2011, China has taken a series of measures to cool rising prices, such as introducing a prudent1 monetary2 policy, boosting supply and containing inrrational demand while establishing a price control mechanism3. However, it will be quite difficult to meet the government's annual inflation rate control target, which is around 4 percent for the year.
Zhang Ping, the head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China's top economic planner, called for all macro control policies in force to be fully4 implemented5, as "it could be difficult to keep the consumer price index (CPI) growth below the government's target this year."
He made the remarks at a bi-monthly legislative6 session of the Standing7 Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's top legislature.
He expected the country's price level to remain high due to the pressures of excessive global liquidity8, imported inflation, higher domestic production costs and temporary shortages of some kinds of farm products, as well as the consequences of natural disasters.
He said that the pressures and risks China faces could lift inflationary expectations, and make it hard to meet the price control target.
In the first seven months, the CPI gained 5.5 percent from a year earlier, well above the government's target ceiling of 4 percent for this year.
In July, CPI even jumped 6.5 percent year-on-year, reaching its highest level in 37 months, placing the government in a tough position with worsening global liquidity in sight.
The Producer Price Index, which is used to calculate inflation at the wholesale10 level, jumped 7.5 percent year-on-year in July.
The stubbornly high inflation rate has been driven by rising food costs, which jumped by 14.8 percent in July from a year ago.
Addressing a Forum12 on China's Macroeconomic Conditions and Macro Policies in Singapore, Zhang Liqun, an economist13 from the Development Research Center, said he expected the inflation pressure resulting from surging food prices to start easing as supply increases.
Grain and rice output in China has been growing steadily14 in recent eight years and the production capacity of vegetables has also increased as the government has put in place incentive15 programs.
"Generally speaking, the food supply situation has been improving, whereas the demand is basically stable," he said.
Tan Kong Yam, director of Asia Competitiveness Institute, the National University of Singapore, said pork prices accounted for as much as 3 percent of the total basket for the CPI in China.
"A surge of 50 to 60 percent in pork price would mean a contribution of 1.7 percentage points to the consumer price index, " he noted16.
The CPI in China would be 4.8 percent if the price of pork is excluded, meaning that the CPI has already started to ease, Tan said.
"I think the fall of CPI may be sharper than expected when the pork price falls in six to 12 months," he said.
The pork price began to surge in the second half of 2010, encouraging farmers to increase their stock. The number of pigs in stock has been increasing as of February, he said.
Easing the inflation pressure would be a long and slow process, and experts presume that in August, CPI would be still high.
High inflation is expected to stay for some time to come, most probably between 4 percent and 5.4 percent in 2011 and 2012, a team of economists17 from the Xiamen University in China and the National University of Singapore said in their latest forecasts on the China's economy released on Aug. 20 in Singapore.
点击收听单词发音
1 prudent | |
adj.谨慎的,有远见的,精打细算的 | |
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2 monetary | |
adj.货币的,钱的;通货的;金融的;财政的 | |
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3 mechanism | |
n.机械装置;机构,结构 | |
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4 fully | |
adv.完全地,全部地,彻底地;充分地 | |
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5 implemented | |
v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 );执行;贯彻;使生效 | |
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6 legislative | |
n.立法机构,立法权;adj.立法的,有立法权的 | |
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7 standing | |
n.持续,地位;adj.永久的,不动的,直立的,不流动的 | |
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8 liquidity | |
n.流动性,偿债能力,流动资产 | |
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9 remains | |
n.剩余物,残留物;遗体,遗迹 | |
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10 wholesale | |
n.批发;adv.以批发方式;vt.批发,成批出售 | |
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11 staple | |
n.主要产物,常用品,主要要素,原料,订书钉,钩环;adj.主要的,重要的;vt.分类 | |
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12 forum | |
n.论坛,讨论会 | |
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13 economist | |
n.经济学家,经济专家,节俭的人 | |
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14 steadily | |
adv.稳定地;不变地;持续地 | |
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15 incentive | |
n.刺激;动力;鼓励;诱因;动机 | |
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16 noted | |
adj.著名的,知名的 | |
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17 economists | |
n.经济学家,经济专家( economist的名词复数 ) | |
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