India's Slowing Economy Unlikely to Stage Quick Recovery

 　　Economists² in India say the nation's economy is growing at its slowest pace in three years.  From New Delhi, Economic growth is not expected to pick up significant pace anytime soon.

　　Government estimates have confirmed what economists have been saying for several months.  India’s economy will grow by 6.9 percent in the financial year that ends in March. That figure is sharply down from the 9 percent growth the government had forecast at the start of 2011.  It is also the slowest pace since the economy was hit by the 2008 global financial crisis.

　　At that time, India’s economy had staged a swift recovery.  But most economists say this time, that will not happen.

　　A. Prasanna, an economist¹ at ICICI Securities in Mumbai, says global economic turbulence³ and domestic problems have contributed significantly to the slackening pace this time.

　　“Investment demand has really slowed down in India because business sentiment has turned weak," explained Prasanna.  "On top of that we had the Reserve Bank hiking interest rates quite aggressively though the whole of last year to contain inflation, so the higher rates have had further dampening impact on investment.”

　　The government is being blamed for the reduction in investment demand.  It put pro-business policies on hold to deal with a series of corruption⁴ scandals and a lack of political consensus⁵.

　　Moreover, its own finances are also not as healthy as they were in 2008.  Then, the government injected billions of dollars to boost consumer demand.  It cannot do this again because it is grappling with a high fiscal⁶ deficit⁷.

　　Economist Prasanna says all eyes are on the federal budget to be announced next month because the government’s response could be critical in determining the pace of recovery.

　　“If the government does send out a signal that they will work hard to bring down the deficit, that and take up an opportunity to proceed with some reforms in key sectors⁸, it will help in bringing down interest rates," Prasanna said.  "It will also help in improving business sentiment.  That may not help much in the current year, but it's important down the line.”

　　However, there is some cause for cheer.  After losing 25 percent of their value last year, stock markets are recovering as more foreign funds begin to flow in.  The local currency, the rupee, has also recovered some value after falling to an all time low against the dollar last year.

　　But economists caution that the government cannot take high growth for granted as it has done for years.  They say it will have to work harder to give fresh momentum⁹ to the economy.

　　Most forecasts put growth at around 7 percent in the coming year.  That is high compared to developed countries, but not high enough for an emerging economy that hopes to be one of the engines of a global economic recovery this decade.

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 turbulence   

n.喧嚣，狂暴，骚乱，湍流

参考例句：

• The turbulence caused the plane to turn over.空气的激流导致飞机翻转。
• The world advances amidst turbulence.世界在动荡中前进。

4 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

5 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

6 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

7 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

8 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

9 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。