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The European Union has responded with a shrug1 to Iran's threat to cut off oil exports to some EU members several months before an EU embargo2 on Iranian oil takes effect. At the same time, Iran has floated an offer to resume talks on its nuclear program. Does this mean sanctions by the EU and other nations are working - or is Tehran simply playing for time?
In recent days, Iran has been sending what some see as mixed messages to Europe - and to the world - related to its controversial nuclear program.
On Wednesday, Iranian television showed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad overseeing what was described as Iran's first home-made fuel rod being loaded into a research reactor3. Iran also announced advances in its uranium enrichment program. But this week also brought news that Iran is willing to resume negotiations5 on its nuclear program with Europe and other Western powers.
Despite Iranian denials, many nations believe Iran is secretly using its civilian6 nuclear program to develop nuclear weapons. The United Nations, United States and EU have imposed a variety of sanctions in a bid to stop that.
So how should Tehran's apparently7 conflicting signals be read? With difficulty, says Nick Witney, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
"If you're an optimist8, you can say that the Iranians are actually seriously worried - as they ought to be - about what is going to happen progressively as the year goes on, as the sanctions tighten9 - and are looking for a way to at least explore some sort of accommodation," said Witney.
Iran's worries not only include EU and U.S. sanctions, but also repeated reports that Israel is considering a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Under this scenario10, Witney says, Iranian threats could be a way to coax11 world powers to return to the negotiating table.
Alternatively, Witney says Iran may be determined12 to acquire a nuclear bomb - and negotiation4 offers may simply be its way to bide13 time.
The European Union has been pushing the diplomatic route to end the standoff on the nuclear issue. It has been steadily14 tightening15 sanctions against Tehran - aimed to cripple its financial and oil lifelines. The EU embargo of Iranian oil is due to begin July 1. Even if Iran cuts off supplies now, this EU spokeswoman told reporters that Europe isn't worried.
"If you're talking about security of supply, we say in this market that oil is something that you can get on international markets," she said. "I know that Saudi Arabia has already said that they would increase the production. So what we hear from member states is that they will switch to the other suppliers and that will be the case."
Meanwhile, media reports suggest that as its coffers dwindle16, Iran is resorting to bartering17 to import basic foods. So are EU and other Western sanctions working? Again, analyst18 Nick Witney:
"I think so. I do agree the sanctions are encouraging Iran back toward the negotiating table," he said. "Now, whether they have any intention when they get back to the negotiating table to negotiate realistically is anybody's guess."
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1 shrug | |
v.耸肩(表示怀疑、冷漠、不知等) | |
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2 embargo | |
n.禁运(令);vt.对...实行禁运,禁止(通商) | |
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3 reactor | |
n.反应器;反应堆 | |
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4 negotiation | |
n.谈判,协商 | |
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5 negotiations | |
协商( negotiation的名词复数 ); 谈判; 完成(难事); 通过 | |
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6 civilian | |
adj.平民的,民用的,民众的 | |
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7 apparently | |
adv.显然地;表面上,似乎 | |
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8 optimist | |
n.乐观的人,乐观主义者 | |
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9 tighten | |
v.(使)变紧;(使)绷紧 | |
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10 scenario | |
n.剧本,脚本;概要 | |
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11 coax | |
v.哄诱,劝诱,用诱哄得到,诱取 | |
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12 determined | |
adj.坚定的;有决心的 | |
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13 bide | |
v.忍耐;等候;住 | |
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14 steadily | |
adv.稳定地;不变地;持续地 | |
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15 tightening | |
上紧,固定,紧密 | |
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16 dwindle | |
v.逐渐变小(或减少) | |
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17 bartering | |
v.作物物交换,以货换货( barter的现在分词 ) | |
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18 analyst | |
n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家 | |
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19 overture | |
n.前奏曲、序曲,提议,提案,初步交涉 | |
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