U.S. faces economic recession risk: research agency

 WASHINGTON, Aug. 22 (Xinhua) -- U.S. budget deficit¹ would surpass the 1 trillion-U.S.-dollar mark and fiscal² tightening³ next year would pose significant threat to the overall economy, according to a report released by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday.

In an update of U.S. budget and economic outlook report, the CBO, a non-partisan budgetary and economic research agency, estimated that the budget deficit in 2012 fiscal year ending September will total 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars.

This projection⁴ is marginally down from the 1.2 trillion dollars estimated in March, but still marking the fourth year in a row with a deficit of more than 1 trillion dollars.

At 7.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the 1.1 trillion budget deficit will be three-quarters as large as the deficit in 2009.

In 2009 fiscal year, U.S. federal government recorded an all time high fiscal imbalance of 1.41 trillion dollars and the shortfall fell slightly to 1.29 trillion dollars in 2010. In 2011 fiscal year, the budget gap amounted to 1.3 trillion dollars.

The U.S. federal government registered a budget deficit of about 69.6 billion U. S. dollars in July, bringing the total deficit for the first 10 months of this fiscal year to 973.8 billion dollars, near the 1-trillion-dollar level.

The CBO expected the economic recovery to continue at a modest pace for the remainder of 2012. For the year as a whole, the economy would grow by 2.1 percent and jobless rate would stand at 8.2 percent at the year's end.

"The future paths of federal deficits⁵ and debt are especially uncertain now because they will depend crucially on how lawmakers address looming⁶ tax and spending decisions," noted⁷ the report.

Under current law, the budget situation will change markedly next year because substantial changes to tax and spending policies are scheduled to take effect in January.

Incorporating such changes in its baseline projections⁸, the CBO said the budget deficit would shrink to 641 billion dollars, or 4 percent of GDP, in 2013 fiscal year.

However, sharp drop in the deficit, which amounts to 487 billion dollars, will have significant short-term economic consequences, the CBO warned.

The office expected that such fiscal tightening would lead to a recession, with growth in GDP declining by 0.5 percent and the unemployment rate staying above 9 percent in 2013.

In the alternative scenario⁹ - the policymakers act to change the law to avert¹⁰ tax increases and spending cuts - the budget deficit would hit 1 trillion dollars in 2013 fiscal year, but economic growth would reach 1.7 percent and the jobless rate would fall to around 8 percent by year end.

While facing a difficult job of striking a balance between controlling debt and boosting economy, the Congress so far has remained in a deadlock¹¹ as the political parties are divided over tax and spending policies. Analysts¹² say it is unlikely for Democrats¹³ and Republicans to reach a deal before the election.

"Today's Congressional Budget Office report only reinforces the urgent need for House Republicans to follow the Senate's lead and pass a bill that gives middle class families the confidence that they won't see their taxes go up at the beginning of next year," the White House said in a statement.

1 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

2 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

3 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

4 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。

5 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

6 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望

7 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

8 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

9 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

10 avert   

v.防止，避免；转移(目光、注意力等)

参考例句：

• He managed to avert suspicion.他设法避嫌。
• I would do what I could to avert it.我会尽力去避免发生这种情况。

11 deadlock   

n.僵局，僵持

参考例句：

• The negotiations reached a deadlock after two hours.两小时后，谈判陷入了僵局。
• The employers and strikers are at a deadlock over the wage.雇主和罢工者在工资问题上相持不下。

12 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

13 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》