走运比优秀更好 光大证券的运气

 　　In few arenas¹ is the cliché “it is better to be lucky than good” as apt as in financial markets.

　　几乎没有哪个领域比金融市场更适用“走运比优秀更好”这句陈词滥调了。

　　Everbright Securities, which prices its Hong Kong listing today, may just have got lucky.

　　光大证券(Everbright Securities)或许就是走了运。它正在香港发行H股，预期定价日不晚于本周日。

　　Yesterday, shares in Hong Kong listed brokerages rose as much as a tenth, with Guotai Junan leading the way. The cause was reports that Shenzhen Connect, a scheme allowing overseas investors² to buy shares in Shenzhen-listed stocks through Hong Kong, might soon launch. Everbright should benefit from this — and its Hong-Kong share offering already looks attractively priced.

　　昨日，在港上市券商的股价上涨高达十分之一，国泰君安(Guotai Junan)的涨幅最高。原因是有报道称，让海外投资者能够通过香港买入深市股票的“深港通”(Shenzhen Connect)机制可能很快就要推出。光大证券应该能够从中获益，而且其H股的发行价本身就已经很诱人了。

　　The company already has a mainland-listed A share against which the H’s looks attractive. The proposed price range in Hong Kong of HK$11.80 to HK$13.26 puts it at a discount of at least a third. The dual-listing average is 20 per cent.

　　和光大证券已在内地上市的A股相比，其H股看起来很有吸引力。光大证券H股的发行价区间在每股11.8到13.26港元之间，相对A股折价至少三分之一。在内地和香港同时上市的公司的两地股价差平均为20%。

　　At the high end, the price multiple of 12 times 2017 consensus³ forecast earnings⁴ is reasonable, given earnings growth of 20 per cent. Between a half and three-quarters of the issue has been pre-sold.

　　按照最高发行价，光大证券H股以2017年普遍预期盈利（假设盈利增长率为20%）计算的市盈率为12倍，处于合理水平。此次发行有二分之一到四分之三的股份已被预先认购。

　　As China opens its capital markets, there is a lot of potential for growth in the financial services sector⁵. Greenwich Associates notes that half of institutional commissions in Asia are paid for trading China and Hong Kong securities. Yet competition is fierce.

　　随着中国开放资本市场，金融服务行业有很大的增长潜力。Greenwich Associates指出，亚洲的机构佣金中有一半都是为交易中国和香港的证券支付的。然而竞争非常激烈。

　　Hong Kong has more than 100 firms offering brokerage services — both bulge⁶ bracket and local players — looking to benefit from the trend.

　　包括国际大投行和本土参与者在内，香港有超过100家机构提供券商服务，它们都希望从这一趋势中得益。

　　The field is also crowded on the mainland. Everbright Securities is one of 125 local players. Activity is disbursed⁷: the top 10 account for only half of Shanghai and Shenzhen trading volumes, Everbright says.

　　在内地，这个领域也同样拥挤。光大证券是125家内地券商之一。这个市场非常分散：光大证券表示，前十大券商只占沪深两市交易量的一半。

　　Industry revenues, meanwhile, are still heavily dependent on equity⁸ markets. In the first half of this year, the top line halved⁹. Most of that was due to commissions and proprietary¹⁰ trading, both of which plunged¹¹. Fee-generation services such as custody¹² and advisory¹³ grew strongly, but even against shrunken equity market business, such divisions accounted for less than a third of the total.

　　同时，这个行业的收入仍非常依赖股市。今年上半年，行业收入减半，这在很大程度上要归咎于佣金和自营交易——两者都出现了暴跌。收取服务费的业务（如托管和咨询）增长强劲，但即使是和缩水后的股市业务相比，这些业务在总收入中的占比仍少于三分之一。

　　There is consolidation¹⁴ ahead, if the US is any guide. There, the top five banks earn two-fifths of trading commissions. Everbright, just outside China’s top 10 by revenue, ought to be an attractive morsel¹⁵. But state-owned Everbright Group owns half of the company. It will not be for sale.

　　如果认为美国的经验有参照性，那么可以说中国券商行业将迎来整合。在美国，排名前五的银行赚取了五分之二的交易佣金。以收入计刚好排在中国券商前十以外的光大证券理应是一个诱人的整合对象。但国有的光大集团(Everbright Group)拥有光大证券一半的股份。光大证券是不会出售的。

 

1 arenas   

表演场地( arena的名词复数 )； 竞技场； 活动或斗争的场所或场面； 圆形运动场

参考例句：

• Demolition derbies are large-scale automobile rodeos that take place in big arenas. 撞车比赛指的是在很大的竞技场上举行的大型汽车驾驶技术表演。
• Are there areas of privacy in the most public of arenas? 在绝大部分公开的场合中存在需要保护隐私的领域吗？

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

4 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

5 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

6 bulge   

n.突出，膨胀，激增；vt.突出，膨胀

参考例句：

• The apple made a bulge in his pocket.苹果把他口袋塞得鼓了起来。
• What's that awkward bulge in your pocket?你口袋里那块鼓鼓囊囊的东西是什么？

7 disbursed   

v.支出，付出( disburse的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• In the 2000—2008 school year, $426.5 million was disbursed to 349085 students. 2000至2008学年，共有349085名学生获发津贴，总额达4.265亿元。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The bank has disbursed over $350m for the project. 银行已经为这个项目支付了超过3.5亿美元。 来自辞典例句

8 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

9 halved   

v.把…分成两半( halve的过去式和过去分词 )；把…减半；对分；平摊

参考例句：

• The shares have halved in value . 股价已经跌了一半。
• Overall operating profits halved to $24 million. 总的营业利润减少了一半，降至2，400 万元。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 proprietary   

n.所有权，所有的；独占的；业主

参考例句：

• We had to take action to protect the proprietary technology.我们必须采取措施保护专利技术。
• Proprietary right is the foundation of jus rerem.所有权是物权法之根基。

11 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

12 custody   

n.监护，照看，羁押，拘留

参考例句：

• He spent a week in custody on remand awaiting sentence.等候判决期间他被还押候审一个星期。
• He was taken into custody immediately after the robbery.抢劫案发生后，他立即被押了起来。

13 advisory   

adj.劝告的，忠告的，顾问的，提供咨询

参考例句：

• I have worked in an advisory capacity with many hospitals.我曾在多家医院做过顾问工作。
• He was appointed to the advisory committee last month.他上个月获任命为顾问委员会委员。

14 consolidation   

n.合并,巩固

参考例句：

• The denser population necessitates closer consolidation both for internal and external action. 住得日益稠密的居民，对内和对外都不得不更紧密地团结起来。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• The state ensures the consolidation and growth of the state economy. 国家保障国营经济的巩固和发展。 来自汉英非文学 - 中国宪法

15 morsel   

n.一口，一点点

参考例句：

• He refused to touch a morsel of the food they had brought.他们拿来的东西他一口也不吃。
• The patient has not had a morsel of food since the morning.从早上起病人一直没有进食。