华尔街将成为特朗普上台的赢家

 　　In a ranking of global financial centres last month, published by Z/Yen, London topped the think-tank’s league, a whisker above New York.

　　在智库Z/Yen上月公布的全球金融中心排行榜中，伦敦位居榜首，略微领先于纽约。

　　Little surprise there: London has led several league tables in recent years.

　　这没有什么奇怪的：近些年，伦敦一直在多项类似榜单上占据榜首。

　　But when Z/Yen publishes its index in a couple of years’ time — in a Trumpian world — there is a good chance those rankings will have changed.

　　但当Z/Yen几年后（在特朗普时代）发布这一排行榜时，排名顺序很可能将已发生改变。

　　For one point about last week’s US presidential election result is that Donald Trump¹’s policies are likely to make New York more attractive as a financial centre.

　　美国大选结果的前景之一是，唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)的政策可能会让纽约成为更有吸引力的金融中心。

　　And that could make London a relative loser — unless British authorities are ready to fight back.

　　这可能让伦敦成为相对的输家——除非英国当局做好还击的准备。

　　Why? The reason is not necessarily any deliberate plan Mr Trump holds for Wall Street; he does not seem to have one.

　　为何如此？原因不一定是他有任何刻意支持华尔街的计划；他似乎没有这样的计划。

　　He barely mentioned the financial sector² on the campaign trail — and most bankers ignored him back.

　　他在竞选过程中几乎没有提到过金融行业——反过来，大多数银行家也忽略了他。

　　Indeed, the industry donated only $737,000 to him this year, compared with $78m for Hillary Clinton and $33m for Jeb Bush.

　　实际上，今年金融业对他的捐款仅为73.7万美元，对希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和杰布.布什(Jeb Bush)的捐款则分别为7800万美元和3300万美元。

　　But what could raise New York’s status is a confluence³ of four crucial factors.

　　但是，可能提高纽约地位的是四个关键因素的共同作用。

　　The first is obvious: London’s future is being undermined by uncertainties⁴ unleashed⁶ by Brexit.

　　第一个是显而易见的：英国脱欧引发的不确定性将损及伦敦的未来。

　　In public, international bankers insist London remains⁷ highly attractive.

　　在公开场合，国际银行家们坚称，伦敦仍具有很大的吸引力。

　　This week, for example, Jes Staley, Barclays chief executive, pointed⁸ to its gravitational pull.

　　比如在最近，巴克莱(Barclays)首席执行官杰斯.斯特利(Jes Staley)指出了伦敦的引力。

　　But in private, senior bankers are preparing to move at least some of their activities when Brexit hits.

　　但在私下里，资深银行家们正准备在英国正式脱欧时迁走至少部分业务。

　　And, while continental⁹ European centres such as Frankfurt and Paris are pitching to grab business, many senior bankers say America looks more attractive, given its infrastructure¹⁰, talent pool and flexible labour laws.

　　此外，尽管法兰克福和巴黎等欧洲大陆的金融中心正在招揽业务，但许多资深银行家表示，鉴于美国的基础设施、人才库和灵活的劳动法规，它看来吸引力更大。

　　It is pretty unlikely anything like what we call ‘London’ could be replicated¹¹ in the foreseeable future in one place in the EU, Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor of the Bank of England, told the House of Lords last month.

　　在可以预见的未来，欧盟(EU)某个地方复制出我们所称的‘伦敦’的可能性很低，英国央行副行长乔恩.坎里夫(Jon Cunliffe)上月在英国国会上院(House of Lords)表示。

　　But it already exists in New York.

　　但是，纽约已具备伦敦的特点。

　　Or as Mark Boleat, policy chairman of the City of London Corporation, observes: The biggest beneficiary of any job losses in the UK will be New York.

　　或者，正如伦敦金融城管理当局(City of London Corporation)政策主席包墨凯(Mark Boleat)所评述：只要英国出现岗位流失，纽约就将成为最大受益者。

　　However, Brexit is not the only factor here; a second is the regulatory and political climate.

　　然而，脱欧并非唯一因素；第二个是监管和政治环境。

　　A decade ago Michael Bloomberg, then New York mayor, commissioned a McKinsey report that concluded London was grabbing business from New York because it had a more welcoming regulatory climate.

　　十年前，时任纽约市长迈克尔.布隆伯格(Michael Bloomberg)委托麦肯锡(McKinsey)做了一份报告，报告称，由于监管环境更友好，伦敦正从纽约那里抢走业务。

　　No longer.

　　如今情况不同了。

　　Since the 2008 crisis British regulators have, quite rightly, implemented¹² reform.

　　自从2008年危机以来，英国监管机构已非常正确地执行了改革。

　　Bank levies¹³ have been imposed amid a political backlash.

　　银行税在政治反弹中出台了。

　　Of course, regulation has been tightened¹⁴ in America too; look at the hefty Dodd-Frank rules.

　　当然，美国的监管也收紧了；看看长篇累牍的《多德-弗兰克法》(Dodd-Frank)吧。

　　But in America the bank-bashing has waned¹⁵.

　　但在美国，对银行的抨击已逐渐消失了。

　　And now Mr Trump’s policy team are not only muttering about rolling back some reforms; they are also considering bringing bankers into the administration.

　　现在，特朗普政策团队不但正在私下讨论着撤销部分改革措施，而且也在考虑让银行家进入政府任职。

　　Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, has been mooted¹⁶ as possible Treasury¹⁷ secretary.

　　摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席执行官杰米.戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)已成为潜在财长的讨论人选。

　　The symbolism is profound.

　　其中的象征意义非常深远。

　　A third factor is the health of banks.

　　第三个因素是银行的健康状况。

　　In recent years American banks have cleaned up their balance sheets and recapitalised themselves.

　　近年来，美国的银行已清理了资产负债表，并注入了新资本。

　　The Europeans have lagged behind, which means American banks are resurgent on the world stage.

　　欧洲同行已落在后面，这意味着，美国的银行在世界舞台上重新崛起了。

　　This is likely to be magnified if Mr Trump loosens regulations.

　　如果特朗普放松管制，这一点还可能放大。

　　If the Federal Reserve raises rates next month — and Janet Yellen, Fed chair, hinted on Thursday that it would — that would bolster¹⁸ US banks’ fee income.

　　如果美联储(Fed)下月加息——美联储主席珍妮特.耶伦(Janet Yellen)上周四暗示将加息——那将提振美国银行业的费用收入。

　　The US economy is likely to grow, partly as a result of Mr Trump’s reflation plans, which could in itself provide a fourth supportive factor.

　　部分得益于特朗普的刺激计划，美国经济可能会增长。该计划本身可能产生第四个支撑因素。

　　After all, rising business confidence and activity typically boosts demand for financial services.

　　毕竟，企业信心增强、企业活动增多通常会增加对于金融服务的需求。

　　In Europe, by contrast, economic gloom and intractable political splits have undermined confidence.

　　形成对照的是，在欧洲，经济低迷和顽固的政治分裂已损害了信心。

　　Anything which can move to the US in the coming years will move — the US is ultimately going to be a huge beneficiary, Gary Cohn, Goldman Sachs president, said this week.

　　任何可以迁到美国的业务，都会在未来几年里迁到美国——美国最终将成为很大的受益者，高盛(Goldman Sachs)总裁盖瑞.柯恩(Gary Cohn)上周说。

　　As far as [financial and business] investment in Europe is concerned, that is going to be on hold.

　　至于在欧洲的（金融和商业）投资，将会暂缓。

　　Of course, some European observers will dismiss this as a self-interested sales pitch.

　　当然，有些欧洲观察者将对此不予理会，认为这是自利的推销说辞。

　　If Trumpian policies spark US social unrest or geopolitical uncertainty¹⁹, or if Mr Trump unleashes²⁰ a debt binge that goes bust²¹, that will not create stability.

　　如果特朗普的政策引发美国社会动荡或地缘政治方面的不确定性，或者如果特朗普释放出的债务泡沫后来破灭的话，这将不会带来稳定。

　　But, while those risks are real, the crucial point now is this: whatever Europeans think of Mr Trump, they need to recognise that animal spirits are rising in New York, and this is likely to boost finance and the standing²² of Wall Street.

　　但是，尽管这些风险是实实在在的，如今的关键点是：无论欧洲人如何看待特朗普，他们都需要承认，在纽约，动物精神正在上升，这可能会提振华尔街的金融业和地位。

　　If London wants to fight back, the British authorities need to find a way to unleash⁵ some animal spirits of their own.

　　如果伦敦想要回击，那么英国当局需要找到一条释放自己的动物精神的途径。

　　Bickering²³ about Brexit is not a good place to start.

　　为英国脱欧而争吵不是好的起点。

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

3 confluence   

n.汇合，聚集

参考例句：

• They built the city at the confluence of two rivers.他们建造了城市的汇合两条河流。
• The whole DV movements actually was a confluence of several trends.整个当时的DV运动，实际上是几股潮流的同谋。

4 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

5 unleash   

vt.发泄，发出；解带子放开

参考例句：

• They hope to create allies to unleash against diseases,pests,and invasive species.他们希望创造出一些新群体来对付疾病、害虫和一些有侵害性的物种。
• Changing water levels now at times unleash a miasma of disease from exposed sewage.如今，大坝不时地改变水位，从暴露的污水释放出了疾病瘴气。

6 unleashed   

v.把（感情、力量等）释放出来，发泄( unleash的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The government's proposals unleashed a storm of protest in the press. 政府的提案引发了新闻界的抗议浪潮。
• The full force of his rage was unleashed against me. 他把所有的怒气都发泄在我身上。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

8 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

9 continental   

adj.大陆的，大陆性的，欧洲大陆的

参考例句：

• A continental climate is different from an insular one.大陆性气候不同于岛屿气候。
• The most ancient parts of the continental crust are 4000 million years old.大陆地壳最古老的部分有40亿年历史。

10 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

11 replicated   

复制( replicate的过去式和过去分词 )； 重复； 再造； 再生

参考例句：

• Later outplant the seedlings in a replicated permanent test plantation. 以后苗木出圃栽植成重复的永久性试验林。
• The phage has replicated and the donor cells have lysed. 噬菌体已复制和给体细胞已发生裂解。

12 implemented   

v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• This agreement, if not implemented, is a mere scrap of paper. 这个协定如不执行只不过是一纸空文。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The economy is in danger of collapse unless far-reaching reforms are implemented. 如果不实施影响深远的改革，经济就面临崩溃的危险。 来自辞典例句

13 levies   

（部队）征兵( levy的名词复数 )； 募捐； 被征募的军队

参考例句：

• At that time, taxes and levies were as many as the hairs on an ox. 那时，苛捐杂税多如牛毛。
• Variable levies can insulate farmers and consumers from world markets. 差价进口税可以把农民和消费者与世界市场隔离开来。

14 tightened   

收紧( tighten的过去式和过去分词 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• The rope holding the boat suddenly tightened and broke. 系船的绳子突然绷断了。
• His index finger tightened on the trigger but then relaxed again. 他的食指扣住扳机，然后又松开了。

15 waned   

v.衰落( wane的过去式和过去分词 )；（月）亏；变小；变暗淡

参考例句：

• However,my enthusiasm waned.The time I spent at exercises gradually diminished. 然而，我的热情减退了。我在做操上花的时间逐渐减少了。 来自《用法词典》
• The bicycle craze has waned. 自行车热已冷下去了。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

16 mooted   

adj.未决定的，有争议的，有疑问的v.提出…供讨论( moot的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The is sue was mooted on the Senate floor. 该问题在参院被提出讨论。 来自辞典例句
• The question mooted in the board meeting is still a moot point. 那个在董事会上（提出讨论）的问题仍（未决的）。 来自互联网

17 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

18 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

19 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

20 unleashes   

v.把（感情、力量等）释放出来，发泄( unleash的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• These findings qualify the common view that economic growth unleashes myriad discontents. 这些发现，纠正了一个普遍观点，即经济发展使人们尽情宣泄不满。 来自互联网
• This caster unleashes a storm of electric discharge on the enemy. 法师向敌人释放出一片电火花的风暴。 来自互联网

21 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

22 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

23 bickering   

v.争吵( bicker的现在分词 )；口角；（水等）作潺潺声；闪烁

参考例句：

• The children are always bickering about something or other. 孩子们有事没事总是在争吵。
• The two children were always bickering with each other over small matters. 这两个孩子总是为些小事斗嘴。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》