2013年经济学人 西班牙及市场 Spain and the markets

 

Finance and Economics；Spain and the markets；The Spanish patient；

财经；西班牙及市场；西班牙患者；

A full bail-out of the euro area's fourth-largest economy is looming¹；

对欧元区第四大经济体的全面纾困正在逼近；

If Spain were a patient, the mood in the hospital ward² would be tense. Every attempt by local specialists advised by renowned³ European consultants⁴ to treat the sickness brings no more than temporary relief. Even more worrying, the relapses after each dose are happening sooner and sooner. Spain's chances of avoiding intensive care—a full bail-out—are receding⁵ to near vanishing-point.

如果西班牙是一名患者，那么在医院病房里的气氛是非常紧张的。由欧洲著名顾问建议，并由当地专家所实施的为治疗疾病所做的每个努力都只带来了短暂的缓解。更令人担忧的是，每次服药后病情的复发一次比一次提前。如此看来，西班牙想要避免重病特别护理——一次全面的纾困——的希望开始变得遥不可及。

The symptoms of Spanish sickness are manifest in ten-year government bond yields touching⁶ 7.75% on July 25th; previous bail-outs of Greece, Ireland and Portugal occurred not long after rates had surpassed 7%. Even more perturbing⁷, two-year yields also briefly⁸ went above 7%, in effect foreclosing the government's ability to borrow at anything but short maturities⁹.

西班牙的症状主要表现为10年期的政府债券收益率在7月25日达到了7.75%；而先前对希腊，爱尔兰和葡萄牙的的纾困正是在债券收益率超过了7%后不久发生的。更令人感到不安的是，2年期的收益率也曾在短时期内突破了7%，这就实际上排除了政府有能力发行长期债券的可能而只能发行短期债券。

No isolation¹⁰ ward is possible in the financially integrated euro area and Spain's sickness quickly infected other countries. The Italian ten-year bond yield went above 6.5%, its highest since January. European stockmarkets retreated and Italy's fell to a euro-era low. Sentiment was further soured by a report from Moody's, a ratings agency, saying that Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands might lose their cherished triple-A status. The prognosis was based in part on fears about the public-debt burden that northern countries might have to assume if bail-outs spread.

在金融一体化的欧元区是没有隔离病房的，于是西班牙的病情很快就感染了其它国家。意大利10年期的债券收益权超过了6.5%，为1月以来最高。欧洲股市回落，意大利股市降到了欧元区的最低点。一份来自穆迪公司——一家评级机构的报告说，德国、卢森堡和荷兰有可能会失去它们宝贵的AAA评级地位，这就使得股市更加敏感。这种预测部分是根据人们对于公共债务负担的恐惧——人们担心一旦纾困蔓延开来，北欧国家可能需要承担责任。

The market funk was the more troubling since a Spanish government with a lot going for it had appeared to be getting a grip. Public debt is rising fast, but at 69% of GDP last year was far lower than Italy's 120%—and less even than Germany's 81%. The budget deficit¹¹ is high (8.9% of GDP in 2011), but only a week before the market panic Mariano Rajoy, the prime minister, announced more tough austerity measures. And on July 20th European finance ministers sanctioned the first tranche of a partial bail-out worth up to EURO100 billion (Dollor121 billion) for Spanish banks.

由于仍需努力的西班牙政府似乎开始掌控局面，这种市场恐惧就更令人感到不安了。公共债务快速上升，但去年西班牙公共债务占GDP的69%这一比例远远低于意大利的120%——甚至还低于德国的81%。预算赤字居高不下（2011年占GDP的8.9%），但就在市场恐慌一周前，西班牙总理马里亚诺.拉霍伊还宣布了更多严厉的紧缩措施。7月20日，欧洲财政部长批准为西班牙银行提供价值1000亿欧元（1210亿美元）的第一批纾困资金。

So why are investors¹² in such a cold sweat about Spain? One reason is that Mr Rajoy flunked¹³ hard choices at the outset, notably¹⁴ the cleansing¹⁵ of the banks. Despite a low starting-point for public debt, deficit overshoots have revealed insufficient¹⁶ central control over the 17 regions that are responsible for a big chunk¹⁷ of spending. Investors fret¹⁸ that more regions may follow Valencia, which applied¹⁹ for aid on July 20th. They are in any case sceptical that Spain can meet its targets for cutting the deficit in the teeth of a recession that is harsher than expected.

那为什么投资者对西班牙市场感到如此惶恐不安？原因之一是拉霍伊总理在一开始的艰难抉择中就失败了，尤其是在清理银行方面。尽管公共债务一开始很低，但赤字的快速上升表明了中央政府对17个地区的管理不足，这些地区占据了支出的很大一部分。巴伦西亚于7月20日申请了救助，而投资者担心会有更多的地区跟随巴伦西亚的步伐。他们怀疑西班牙能否面对超出想象的经济衰退，达成削减赤字的目标。

The biggest worry is Spain's external debt. Spain ran hefty current-account deficits²⁰ in the first decade of the euro. As a result, its liabilities to foreign investors exceeded the assets that its residents own abroad by 92% of GDP last year, among the highest in the euro area. The problem for Spain is that foreign capital has been fleeing over the past year. That has weakened the banks and the economy and left the Spanish government shunned²¹ by foreign investors for its own financing needs.

人们最大的担忧是西班牙的外债。西班牙进入欧元区的第一个十年就背负了大量的往来账户赤字，其结果是去年西班牙的外债超过其居民在国外拥有的资产，其差额相当于GDP的92%，这位于欧元区前列。西班牙的问题是在过去的一年中，外国资本在不断外流，这就使得银行和经济情况不断恶化，并使得西班牙政府在融资方面吸引不了外国投资者。

The European summit in late June offered a flicker²² of hope but it is guttering²³. Euro-area leaders agreed that the European Stability Mechanism²⁴ (ESM), their new permanent rescue fund, would be able to inject funds directly into banks rather than via loans to the government. That perked²⁵ markets up since it promised to sever²⁶ the link between weak banks and weak sovereigns. But before long the deal looked less solid: the ESM cannot come into force until September, when Germany's constitutional court will rule on its legality. Assuming it passes that test, the ESM cannot be used for direct bank recapitalisation until a European supervisor²⁷ is put in charge.

六月底的欧洲峰会为人们带来了一丝希望，但这个希望却正在逐渐破灭。欧元区领导人同意欧洲稳定机制（ESM）—— 新的永久救助基金，可以直接为各银行注入资金而无需通过政府。这个消息让市场振奋不已，因为它承诺断开脆弱的银行和脆弱的国家之间的联系。但没过多久这个协议便看起来不那么可靠：欧洲稳定机制直到九月才生效，到时德国宪法法庭会对其合法性进行裁决。即使这个机制通过了考验，在欧洲监督机构成立之前，它依然不能直接用来对银行进行资金重组。

Spain may yet be able to fend²⁸ off a bail-out for some time. It has some cash reserves and can still borrow at short maturities. The euro area also has its temporary rescue fund, which will lend the Spanish government the initial sum of money for the banks. But even if Spain survives a hot summer, the markets are signalling that it will need a full bail-out later this year.

西班牙可能仍可抵挡纾困计划一段时间，它还有一些现金并能发行短期债券。欧元区也有临时救助资金，它可以把首批贷款借给西班牙政府以对其银行进行重组。但即使西班牙能安然度过这个夏天，市场表明其在年底依然需要一次全面纾困。

That would be a nightmare, and not just for Spain. The Spanish government must borrow EURO385 billion until the end of 2014 to cover its budget deficit and other needs such as bond redemptions, according to economists²⁹ at Credit Suisse. Even if the IMF chips in a third as in previous bail-outs, European lenders would have to find EURO250 billion or so. They have already committed EURO100 billion to rescuing Spanish banks, so for other emergencies they would have only EURO150 billion of the EURO500 billion now in their rescue kitties.

这将是一场噩梦，不仅仅对于西班牙来说。瑞士信贷的经济学家们称，在2014年底之前，西班牙政府必须借入3850亿欧元来填补其预算赤字以及满足其它一些需要，如债务偿还。即使国际货币基金组织能和之前的纾困中一样提供三分之一救助资金，欧洲领导人也依然需要筹集2500亿欧元左右。他们已经承诺用1000亿欧元来拯救西班牙银行，那么一旦出现其它状况，5000亿欧元的救助资金中他们便只剩1500亿欧元来应对。

The course of events is eerily³⁰ similar to what happened a year ago. Then European leaders appeared to have secured their summer holidays with a “breakthrough” summit. But things soon fell apart. Nerves about Italy and Spain were calmed only when the European Central Bank (ECB) started buying their bonds. The central bank was never keen on this and it has not been buying bonds for several months. Even if the ECB were to resume purchases they might be less effective than before, because its refusal to share in the pain of the Greek debt restructuring in March frightened bondholders elsewhere.

事件的发展过程和去年的极为诡异地相似。欧洲领导人似乎以“突破性”的峰会保住了他们的暑期，但事情很快又分崩离析。只有在欧洲中央银行开始购买意大利和西班牙的债券后人们的紧张情绪才得以缓解。中央银行从未对此如此热情并且已多月未购买债券。但即使欧洲中央银行重新开始购买债券，效果也大不如从前了，因为3月份希腊债务进行重组时，欧洲中央银行拒绝承担其债务，这让其它国家的许多债券持有人感到恐慌。

The awkward truth is that the Spanish government is not alone in flunking³¹ hard choices. The plight³² of Spain and the danger of its sickness spreading to Italy call for a decisive countermove by Germany and the ECB. One being discussed would be to give the ESM a banking³³ licence, which would magnify its resources by allowing it to borrow from the central bank. The graver the euro crisis gets, the bigger the response has to be—and the harder it is to sell to sceptical northern electorates³⁴.

令人尴尬的事实是，西班牙政府并不是唯一一个在艰难抉择中不及格的政府，西班牙的困境及病情已扩散到意大利，这就需要德国和欧洲中央银行采取果断应对措施。已经讨论过的措施之一是给欧洲稳定机制发一个银行执照，允许它从中央银行贷款，从而扩大其资源。欧元危机一旦变得更加严重，所需做出的回应也更大—— 想要说服持怀疑态度的北欧选民也就更加困难。

1 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望

2 ward   

n.守卫，监护，病房，行政区，由监护人或法院保护的人（尤指儿童）；vt.守护，躲开

参考例句：

• The hospital has a medical ward and a surgical ward.这家医院有内科病房和外科病房。
• During the evening picnic,I'll carry a torch to ward off the bugs.傍晚野餐时，我要点根火把，抵挡蚊虫。

3 renowned   

adj.著名的，有名望的，声誉鹊起的

参考例句：

• He is one of the world's renowned writers.他是世界上知名的作家之一。
• She is renowned for her advocacy of human rights.她以提倡人权而闻名。

4 consultants   

顾问( consultant的名词复数 )； 高级顾问医生，会诊医生

参考例句：

• a firm of management consultants 管理咨询公司
• There're many consultants in hospital. 医院里有很多会诊医生。

5 receding   

v.逐渐远离( recede的现在分词 )；向后倾斜；自原处后退或避开别人的注视；尤指问题

参考例句：

• Desperately he struck out after the receding lights of the yacht. 游艇的灯光渐去渐远，他拼命划水追赶。 来自辞典例句
• Sounds produced by vehicles receding from us seem lower-pitched than usual. 渐渐远离我们的运载工具发出的声似乎比平常的音调低。 来自辞典例句

6 touching   

adj.动人的，使人感伤的

参考例句：

• It was a touching sight.这是一幅动人的景象。
• His letter was touching.他的信很感人。

7 perturbing   

v.使（某人）烦恼，不安( perturb的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• There had been an incident which was perturbing. 曾经出了一点令人不安的事故。 来自辞典例句

8 briefly   

adv.简单地，简短地

参考例句：

• I want to touch briefly on another aspect of the problem.我想简单地谈一下这个问题的另一方面。
• He was kidnapped and briefly detained by a terrorist group.他被一个恐怖组织绑架并短暂拘禁。

9 maturities   

n.成熟（maturity的复数形式）

参考例句：

• Maturities of commercial paper range from three days to nine months. 商业票据的期限从3天到9个月不等。 来自互联网
• German federal government bonds issued with maturities of up to 30 years. 指期限可长达30年的德国联邦政府债券。 来自互联网

10 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

11 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

12 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

13 flunked   

v.( flunk的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）（考试、某学科的成绩等）不及格；评定（某人）不及格；（因不及格而） 退学

参考例句：

• I flunked math in second grade. 我二年级时数学不及格。
• He flunked out (of college) last year. 他去年（从大学）退学了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

15 cleansing   

n. 净化(垃圾) adj. 清洁用的 动词cleanse的现在分词

参考例句：

• medicated cleansing pads for sensitive skin 敏感皮肤药物清洗棉
• Soap is not the only cleansing agent. 肥皂并不是唯一的清洁剂。

16 insufficient   

adj.(for，of)不足的，不够的

参考例句：

• There was insufficient evidence to convict him.没有足够证据给他定罪。
• In their day scientific knowledge was insufficient to settle the matter.在他们的时代，科学知识还不能足以解决这些问题。

17 chunk   

n.厚片，大块，相当大的部分（数量）

参考例句：

• They had to be careful of floating chunks of ice.他们必须当心大块浮冰。
• The company owns a chunk of farmland near Gatwick Airport.该公司拥有盖特威克机场周边的大片农田。

18 fret   

v.(使)烦恼；(使)焦急；(使)腐蚀，(使)磨损

参考例句：

• Don't fret.We'll get there on time.别着急，我们能准时到那里。
• She'll fret herself to death one of these days.她总有一天会愁死的.

19 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

20 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

21 shunned   

v.避开，回避，避免( shun的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• She was shunned by her family when she remarried. 她再婚后家里人都躲着她。
• He was a shy man who shunned all publicity. 他是个怕羞的人，总是避开一切引人注目的活动。 来自《简明英汉词典》

22 flicker   

vi./n.闪烁，摇曳，闪现

参考例句：

• There was a flicker of lights coming from the abandoned house.这所废弃的房屋中有灯光闪烁。
• At first,the flame may be a small flicker,barely shining.开始时，光辉可能是微弱地忽隐忽现，几乎并不灿烂。

23 guttering   

n.用于建排水系统的材料；沟状切除术；开沟

参考例句：

• a length of guttering 一节沟槽
• The candle was guttering in the candlestick. 蜡烛在烛台上淌着蜡。 来自辞典例句

24 mechanism   

n.机械装置；机构，结构

参考例句：

• The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
• The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。

25 perked   

（使）活跃( perk的过去式和过去分词 )； （使）增值； 使更有趣

参考例句：

• The recent demand for houses has perked up the prices. 最近对住房的需求使房价上涨了。
• You've perked up since this morning. 你今天上午精神就好多了。

26 sever   

v.切开，割开；断绝，中断

参考例句：

• She wanted to sever all her connections with the firm.她想断绝和那家公司的所有联系。
• We must never sever the cultural vein of our nation.我们不能割断民族的文化血脉。

27 supervisor   

n.监督人，管理人，检查员，督学，主管，导师

参考例句：

• Between you and me I think that new supervisor is a twit.我们私下说，我认为新来的主管人是一个傻瓜。
• He said I was too flighty to be a good supervisor.他说我太轻浮不能成为一名好的管理员。

28 fend   

v.照料（自己），（自己）谋生，挡开，避开

参考例句：

• I've had to fend for myself since I was 14.我从十四岁时起就不得不照料自己。
• He raised his arm up to fend branches from his eyes.他举手将树枝从他眼前挡开。

29 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

30 eerily   

adv.引起神秘感或害怕地

参考例句：

• It was nearly mid-night and eerily dark all around her. 夜深了，到处是一片黑黝黝的怪影。 来自汉英文学 - 散文英译
• The vast volcanic slope was eerily reminiscent of a lunar landscape. 开阔的火山坡让人心生怪异地联想起月球的地貌。 来自辞典例句

31 flunking   

v.( flunk的现在分词 )；（使）（考试、某学科的成绩等）不及格；评定（某人）不及格；（因不及格而） 退学

参考例句：

• Is there some school of the ear I'm flunking out off right now? 我是不是被什么听力学校淘汰了？ 来自电影对白
• Twelve freshman footballers were flunking classes and had to leave. 当时有12名高中一年级的美式足球（即橄榄球）队员没有通过考试而不得不离开。 来自互联网

32 plight   

n.困境，境况，誓约，艰难；vt.宣誓，保证，约定

参考例句：

• The leader was much concerned over the plight of the refugees.那位领袖对难民的困境很担忧。
• She was in a most helpless plight.她真不知如何是好。

33 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

34 electorates   

全体选民( electorate的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The assembly's 15 seats have electorates as small as 190. 大会的15个议席只有很少的190选民参加。
• Restricting hedge funds is something they can sell to their electorates. 限制对冲基金是他们能够向选民兜售的东西。