2014年经济学人 莱克星顿 移民的数字游戏

Lexington

The immigrant numbers game

Why Barack Obama's partial amnesty won't be reversed

SOMETIMES the hardest questions come from friendly crowds. Barack Obama on December 9th made a foray into the heartland to promote his plan to shield millions of undocumented migrants from deportation¹. He chose to speak inNashville, a once-sleepy (if tuneful) city that has seen its foreign-born population roughly double in a decade. That reflects a broad trend: millions of migrants, most of them Hispanic, have moved to the South and Midwest in recent years, flocking to small towns and rural counties that last saw hefty in-migration in the days of crinolines, carpet-bags and spats².

After a thoughtful speech defending immigration (“It keeps us young, and it keeps us invigorated,” he said), Mr Obama took questions.Nashville's Hispanics love you, began his first questioner. Then came a tougher query³. If the next president scraps⁴ the new executive action, will those who use it to seek temporary work and residency papers be first in line for deportation? Mr Obama's answer, simplified, was: there's safety in numbers.

A permanent immigration law passed by Congress would be much better, the president said—but even temporary papers should be politically hard to reverse. He added an interesting caveat⁵, though. Local governments, churches and community groups need to sign up more than “just a few people in a few pockets”. Mr Obama's answer is revealing. Republicans inWashington,DCmay be enraged⁶ at being side-stepped by Mr Obama, and seem set to stall any congressional action on immigration until he is out of office in 2017. But for all that, the president is wagering⁷ that the country at large realises that something must be done to regularise a migrant population that they see all around them, at school gates in conservative small towns, cheering on youth soccer teams in suburban⁸ parks, and filling hard, low-paid jobs in states of every ideological⁹ hue¹⁰.

Go back just a few years, and the idea that migrants might find safety by showing their strength would have sounded risible¹¹.Nashvilleis a laid-back place: a tourist-friendly Democratic-voting dot in the middle of the conservative Bible Belt. Even so, its calm was tested when migrants began arriving in large numbers a generation ago, swelling¹³ a once-titchy foreign population centred on Kurdish refugees and Japanese car executives. City- and state-level politicians vied to restrict migrant access to public services. They tried to use everyone from police to schools to track unlawful residents, speeding their deportation. There were calls to “demagnetise”Tennesseeas a. In 2009 a referendum was held on makingNashville“English-only”, which would have barred the city from offering foreign-language information, services or even interpreters (it was voted down).

Activists¹⁴ remember a dark period. In 2008 the Tennessee Immigrant and Refugee Rights Coalition¹⁵ counted 65 anti-immigrant bills proposed in the state legislature. Migrants recall fear, too. Karla Ruiz, a Mexican caterer¹⁶, remembers driving her young (American-born) daughter in terror that even a burned-out brake light might trigger a police stop and immigration check leading to her deportation. Karl Dean, a Democrat¹² who has beenNashville's mayor since 2007, admits to a period when Latinos “felt they couldn't engage with the police or city government”.

Yet that period from 2009-11 now looks like a high-water mark for nativism. Local firms campaigned hard againstNashville's English-only proposal: with a global brand,Nashvillecannot be “narrow” in its thinking, explains Ralph Schulz, president of the chamber¹⁷ of commerce. This year the Republican governor, Bill Haslam, has declined to join 17 other states in suing Mr Obama over his executive action. The governor is no liberal squish: he just has other priorities, starting with inward investment and upping the number of Tennesseans who go to college.

Change can even be detected in the state legislature, where Republicans hold crushing, three-to-one super-majorities in both houses. The flow of kick-'em-out bills slowed in 2012 and 2013. In 2014 a Republican state senator fromChattanooga, Todd Gardenhire, easily passed a law clarifying thatTennessee's public universities can admit American-born children of undocumented parents at the same discounted rate as other local residents. He could not pass a more ambitious bill, offering in-state tuition rates to kids who came illegally as children and who do well at school, but Mr Gardenhire vows¹⁸ to try again. In the past five years some 18,000 Hispanic families have headed to his district, he reports, many after neighbouringAlabamaandGeorgiapassed “draconian” laws. Yes, they arrived illegally, but that is no reason to “punish kids”, argues the senator. “They are here, and they are trying to do their best.” To date, lots of his colleagues are “afraid” of challenges from the right in party primaries. But, hesays, th

ey know that educating youngsters makes “economic sense”.

Welcome to Nashville

City politicians, school officials and activists talk of a tipping point. With one-in-eightNashvilleresidents now foreign-born, and one-in-three local children living in a bilingual or non-English household, the city cannot simply wish newcomers away. Ms Ruiz reports that American friends may disapprove¹⁹ of Mr Obama's executive action, but they are happy for her that it will secure her legal papers. Mayor Dean goes further, drawing on the age-old traditions of American civic²⁰ boosterism. Thanks to its ethnic²¹ diversity, “Nashvilleis a much more interesting city,” he says, with a “buzz” and an “energy” that bodes²² well for the future. In a highly mobile country, if people pickNashville, that is “the highest compliment they can pay,” he adds.

That is a very American statement. It puts timid, grudging²³ politicians in other rich countries to shame. Mr Obama has taken a gamble that the nationwide spread of migrants helps the cause of immigration reform more than it harms it.Tennessee's example suggests he might be right.

1 deportation   

n.驱逐，放逐

参考例句：

• The government issued a deportation order against the four men.政府发出了对那4名男子的驱逐令。
• Years ago convicted criminals in England could face deportation to Australia.很多年以前，英国已定罪的犯人可能被驱逐到澳大利亚。

2 spats   

n.口角( spat的名词复数 )；小争吵；鞋罩；鞋套v.spit的过去式和过去分词( spat的第三人称单数 )；口角；小争吵；鞋罩

参考例句：

• Gasoline is a solvent liquid that removes grease spats. 汽油是一种能脱去油迹的有溶解能力的液体。 来自辞典例句
• Then spats took a catnap, and the bird looked out for dogs. 然后斯派茨小睡了一会儿。小鸟为它站岗放哨，防止狗跑过来。 来自互联网

3 query   

n.疑问，问号，质问；vt.询问，表示怀疑

参考例句：

• I query very much whether it is wise to act so hastily.我真怀疑如此操之过急地行动是否明智。
• They raised a query on his sincerity.他们对他是否真诚提出质疑。

4 scraps   

油渣

参考例句：

• Don't litter up the floor with scraps of paper. 不要在地板上乱扔纸屑。
• A patchwork quilt is a good way of using up scraps of material. 做杂拼花布棉被是利用零碎布料的好办法。

5 caveat   

n.警告； 防止误解的说明

参考例句：

• I would offer a caveat for those who want to join me in the dual calling.为防止发生误解，我想对那些想要步我后尘的人提出警告。
• As I have written before,that's quite a caveat.正如我以前所写，那确实是个警告。

6 enraged   

使暴怒( enrage的过去式和过去分词 )； 歜； 激愤

参考例句：

• I was enraged to find they had disobeyed my orders. 发现他们违抗了我的命令，我极为恼火。
• The judge was enraged and stroke the table for several times. 大法官被气得连连拍案。

7 wagering   

v.在（某物）上赌钱，打赌( wager的现在分词 )；保证，担保

参考例句：

• Generally, wagering contracts are illegal and will not be enforced. 通常情况下，赌博性合同是无效的并且不能执行。 来自互联网

8 suburban   

adj.城郊的，在郊区的

参考例句：

• Suburban shopping centers were springing up all over America. 效区的商业中心在美国如雨后春笋般地兴起。
• There's a lot of good things about suburban living.郊区生活是有许多优点。

9 ideological   

a.意识形态的

参考例句：

• He always tries to link his study with his ideological problems. 他总是把学习和自己的思想问题联系起来。
• He helped me enormously with advice on how to do ideological work. 他告诉我怎样做思想工作，对我有很大帮助。

10 hue   

n.色度；色调；样子

参考例句：

• The diamond shone with every hue under the sun.金刚石在阳光下放出五颜六色的光芒。
• The same hue will look different in different light.同一颜色在不同的光线下看起来会有所不同。

11 risible   

adj.能笑的；可笑的

参考例句：

• The entire proposal is risible.这个建议完全是荒唐可笑的。
• He drew a risible picture on the wall.他在墙上画了一张滑稽的画。

12 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

13 swelling   

n.肿胀

参考例句：

• Use ice to reduce the swelling. 用冰敷消肿。
• There is a marked swelling of the lymph nodes. 淋巴结处有明显的肿块。

14 activists   

n.（政治活动的）积极分子，活动家( activist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His research work was attacked by animal rights activists . 他的研究受到了动物权益维护者的抨击。
• Party activists with lower middle class pedigrees are numerous. 党的激进分子中有很多出身于中产阶级下层。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

16 caterer   

n. 备办食物者，备办宴席者

参考例句：

• My wife went to a lot of trouble; she called a caterer. 我太太花了很多心血，她找了专办派对的人来。
• The wedding reception has been organized by an outside caterer. 婚宴由外界的饮食公司承办。

17 chamber   

n.房间，寝室；会议厅；议院；会所

参考例句：

• For many,the dentist's surgery remains a torture chamber.对许多人来说，牙医的治疗室一直是间受刑室。
• The chamber was ablaze with light.会议厅里灯火辉煌。

18 vows   

誓言( vow的名词复数 )； 郑重宣布，许愿

参考例句：

• Matrimonial vows are to show the faithfulness of the new couple. 婚誓体现了新婚夫妇对婚姻的忠诚。
• The nun took strait vows. 那位修女立下严格的誓愿。

19 disapprove   

v.不赞成，不同意，不批准

参考例句：

• I quite disapprove of his behaviour.我很不赞同他的行为。
• She wants to train for the theatre but her parents disapprove.她想训练自己做戏剧演员，但她的父母不赞成。

20 civic   

adj.城市的，都市的，市民的，公民的

参考例句：

• I feel it is my civic duty to vote.我认为投票选举是我作为公民的义务。
• The civic leaders helped to forward the project.市政府领导者协助促进工程的进展。

21 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

22 bodes   

v.预示，预告，预言( bode的第三人称单数 )；等待，停留( bide的过去分词 )；居住；（过去式用bided）等待

参考例句：

• This bodes ill for the failure of the programme. 这是那项计划有凶兆。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• This bodes him no good. 这对他是不祥之兆。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

23 grudging   

adj.勉强的，吝啬的

参考例句：

• He felt a grudging respect for her talents as an organizer.他勉强地对她的组织才能表示尊重。
• After a pause he added"sir."in a dilatory,grudging way.停了一会他才慢吞吞地、勉勉强强地加了一声“先生”。