2020年经济学人 新型冠状病毒和市场动荡(2)

Start with the first, volatility¹. Equity² market instability might feed on itself.

首先是波动性。股市的不稳定可能会自食其果。

The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index,

衡量标准普尔500指数期权价格隐含预期波动率的VIX指数

vaulted³ from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it.

在几天内从15左右升至27以上。一些投资策略对它特别敏感。

For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities⁴ in portfolios⁵.

例如，当波动性较低时，它们允许在投资组合中赋予股票更大的权重。

But when it rises and stays high, some investors⁶ are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility.

但当它上升并保持在高位时，一些投资者被迫抛售他们持有的一些股票，这就造成了更大的波动。

Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows.

一些价值与VIX挂钩的交易所交易基金出现了资金外流。

It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility.

至少有一些投资者可能一直押注持续接近隐匿的波动性。

The resilience of such strategies could be tested.

这些策略的弹性是可以检验的。

A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate⁷ debt, which has soared over the past decade.

更令人担忧的是信贷市场，尤其是过去10年飙升的公司债务。

A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds

借贷成本的急剧上升将会伤害那些需要对到期债券进行展期的公司，

and would also rattle⁸ America's huge private-credit markets.

同时也会使美国庞大的私人信贷市场陷入混乱。

The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly⁹ threatened to become a credit-crunch.

上一次全球经济增长恐慌发生在2018年末，当时引发了恐慌性抛售，并一度有演变成信贷紧缩的危险。

So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries¹⁰ demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper

到目前为止，投资者持有高收益公司债券所需的国债息差

has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm.

已扩大至4.3个百分点，其中大部分影响来自能源板块的债券。这值得担心，但不必恐慌。

But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg.

根据彭博社报道，新的发行已经停止——到2月26日，华尔街已经三天没有任何高等级债券发行。

If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity¹¹ squeeze.

如果这种情况持续下去，将出现企业流动性紧缩。

Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe¹² credit markets.

降息并不能弥补这种混乱。但它们可以帮助稳定信贷市场。

Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998—

过去，美联储早期较为宽松的政策——尤其是在1998年——

been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds.

曾推动风险资产在面临可怕逆风的情况下在晚周期出现反弹。

A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets,

法国兴业银行的Kit¹³ Juckes表示两周前，

says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are.

市场已经消化了美联储一次降息的影响。现在是两次。

"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there's a dramatic change in the covid-19 news."

“除非关于Covid-19的新闻出现戏剧性变化，否则在几周内， 市场可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。”

1 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

2 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

3 vaulted   

adj.拱状的

参考例句：

• She vaulted over the gate and ran up the path. 她用手一撑跃过栅栏门沿着小路跑去。
• The formal living room has a fireplace and vaulted ceilings. 正式的客厅有一个壁炉和拱形天花板。

4 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

5 portfolios   

n.投资组合( portfolio的名词复数 )；（保险）业务量；（公司或机构提供的）系列产品；纸夹

参考例句：

• Price risk arises in non-trading portfolios, as well as in trading portfolios. 价格风险中出现的非贸易投资，以及在贸易投资组合。 来自互联网
• How do we fatten our portfolios and stay financially healthy? 我们怎样育肥我们的投资结构和维持财政健康呢？ 来自互联网

6 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

7 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

8 rattle   

v.飞奔，碰响；激怒；n.碰撞声；拨浪鼓

参考例句：

• The baby only shook the rattle and laughed and crowed.孩子只是摇着拨浪鼓，笑着叫着。
• She could hear the rattle of the teacups.她听见茶具叮当响。

9 briefly   

adv.简单地，简短地

参考例句：

• I want to touch briefly on another aspect of the problem.我想简单地谈一下这个问题的另一方面。
• He was kidnapped and briefly detained by a terrorist group.他被一个恐怖组织绑架并短暂拘禁。

10 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

11 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

12 soothe   

v.安慰；使平静；使减轻；缓和；奉承

参考例句：

• I've managed to soothe him down a bit.我想方设法使他平静了一点。
• This medicine should soothe your sore throat.这种药会减轻你的喉痛。

13 kit   

n.用具包，成套工具；随身携带物

参考例句：

• The kit consisted of about twenty cosmetic items.整套工具包括大约20种化妆用品。
• The captain wants to inspect your kit.船长想检查你的行装。