2020年经济学人 大宗商品--买方注意(2)

大宗商品--买方注意(2)

A grand supply agreement between America, Saudi Arabia and Russia might boost the oil price, but only temporarily.

美国、沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间的一项重大供应协议可能会推高油价，但只是暂时的。

"The price war has become largely irrelevant," says Ben Luckock of Trafigura, a trading company.

贸易公司托克集团的Ben Luckock表示：“价格战基本上已无关紧要。”

Saudi production now seems far less important, he argues, than the pandemic's historic destruction of oil demand.

他认为，现在沙特的石油生产似乎远不如流行病对石油需求的历史性破坏重要。

Covid-19 is obliterating¹ this at such an astonishing rate that analysts² cannot adjust their models quickly enough.

Covid-19正以如此惊人的速度抹去这一切，以至于分析师们无法快速地调整他们的模型。

Bernstein, a research firm, estimates that demand in the first half of the year may be 10%, or even 20%, below what it was in 2019.

研究公司Bernstein估计，今年上半年的需求可能会比2019年低10%，甚至20%。

In the past 35 years demand has only twice been lower than in the preceding year—in 2008 and 2009.

在过去35年中，需求只比前一年——2008年和2009年，低了两倍。

Yet production has been slow to respond. That is only in part because of the price war.

但生产对此的反应一直都很慢。这只是价格战的部分原因。

Once a shale³ well is drilled, there are only marginal savings⁴ from stopping production.

一旦页岩井开钻，停产只会带来很少的边际储蓄。

Many oil companies are hedged and continue pumping in the hope prices will rise.

很多石油公司都进行了对冲，并继续开采，以期油价上涨。

Even when firms slash⁵ spending, output may not drop quickly. On March 24th Chevron⁶, an American supermajor,

即使公司削减支出，产量可能也不会迅速下降。3月24日，全球六大石油化工公司之一的美国雪佛龙

said that it would cut capital spending by 20% this year, but that production in 2020 would roughly match that in 2019.

称其今年将削减20%的资本支出，但2020年的产量将与2019年大致相当。

It looks possible that supply will not just exceed demand for oil now but fill the capacity to store it.

现在看来，石油供应可能不仅会超过需求，而且还会填补储存石油的能力。

Bernstein reckons that there could be over 735m barrels of extra crude this year,

Bernstein认为，今年可能会有超过7.35亿桶的额外原油，

and only about 500m barrels of storage available in the OECD, a club of mainly rich countries, and oil tankers⁷.

而在主要由富国和油轮组成的OECD中，仅有约5亿桶的储油可用。

In the face of such a demand shock, "a production cut that takes a month or two to implement⁸ won't do much,"

面对这样的需求冲击，“需要一两个月才能实施的减产措施不会起多大作用，”

argues Damien Courvalin of Goldman Sachs, a bank.

高盛投资公司的Damien Courvalin说到。

He contends that a production limit in Texas would slow the consolidation⁹ that America's shale industry needs to be competitive in the long term.

他认为，德克萨斯州的产量限制将减缓美国页岩气行业需要形成长期竞争力的整合。

Government stimulus¹⁰ might help to boost demand.

政府的刺激措施可能有助于刺激需求。

But the essential fix to bring the market back into balance, reckons Mr Luckock, is a painful one: even lower oil prices.

但Luckock认为，让市场恢复平衡的关键措施是痛苦的：更低的油价。

1 obliterating   

v.除去( obliterate的现在分词 )；涂去；擦掉；彻底破坏或毁灭

参考例句：

• Michael smoked the competition, obliterating field in most of his events. 迈克尔让比赛放光，几乎淹没了他所参加的大多数项目。 来自互联网
• He heard Pam screaming.The noise became obliterating.Then solid darkness descended. 在一片混乱中，他听到了帕姆的尖叫。接下来，噪音消失了，黑暗降临了。 来自互联网

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 shale   

n.页岩，泥板岩

参考例句：

• We can extract oil from shale.我们可以从页岩中提取石油。
• Most of the rock in this mountain is shale.这座山上大部分的岩石都是页岩。

4 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

5 slash   

vi.大幅度削减；vt.猛砍，尖锐抨击，大幅减少；n.猛砍，斜线，长切口，衣衩

参考例句：

• The shop plans to slash fur prices after Spring Festival.该店计划在春节之后把皮货降价。
• Don't slash your horse in that cruel way.不要那样残忍地鞭打你的马。

6 chevron   

n.V形臂章；V形图案

参考例句：

• He wore shoulderstrap rank slides with sergeant's chevrons.他佩戴标示级别的肩章，上面有中士的V形标志。
• The chevron or arrow road sign indicates a sharp bend to the left or right.V形或箭头路标表示有向左或向右的急转弯。

7 tankers   

运送大量液体或气体的轮船[卡车]( tanker的名词复数 )； 油轮； 罐车； 油槽车

参考例句：

• They should stop offloading waste from oil tankers into the sea. 他们应当停止从油轮上往海里倾倒废弃物。
• The harbour admits large tankers and freighters. 这个港口容得下巨型油船和货轮。

8 implement   

n.(pl.)工具，器具；vt.实行，实施，执行

参考例句：

• Don't undertake a project unless you can implement it.不要承担一项计划，除非你能完成这项计划。
• The best implement for digging a garden is a spade.在花园里挖土的最好工具是铁锹。

9 consolidation   

n.合并,巩固

参考例句：

• The denser population necessitates closer consolidation both for internal and external action. 住得日益稠密的居民，对内和对外都不得不更紧密地团结起来。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• The state ensures the consolidation and growth of the state economy. 国家保障国营经济的巩固和发展。 来自汉英非文学 - 中国宪法

10 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。