2020年经济学人 全球经济(1)

Finance & economics

财经

The global economy

全球经济

A good kind of bubble

良好的圈

As some countries contain the virus more successfully than others, could travel zones offer a route to economic recovery?

一些国家比其他国家更成功地遏制了病毒，这能否让旅游业为经济复苏开辟一条道路?

It may be a painful fact to contemplate¹ during these locked-down days, but last year the world was more mobile than ever, with people taking 4.6bn flights.

在封锁期间，这个事实可能会让人感到痛苦，但去年，全世界的流动人口比任何时候都多，人们乘坐了46亿次航班。

In April this year, though, planes carried just 47m passengers; that level of mobility², annualised, would set the clocks back to 1978.

然而，今年4月，飞机载客量只有4700万人次；按年度计算，这样的流动性水平会让时光退回1978年。

The virtual halt to travel has exacerbated³ the global economy’s woes⁴, complicating⁵ trade ties, upending business and devastating⁶ the tourism industry.

实际上停摆的旅游业加剧了全球经济的困境，也让贸易关系更加复杂，它颠覆了商业，摧毁了旅游业。

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Little wonder that governments want to restore links.

难怪各国政府想要恢复联系。

An idea gaining favour is the creation of travel “bubbles”, binding⁷ together countries that have fared well against the coronavirus.

一个越来越受欢迎的想法是创造旅游“圈”，将在对抗新冠病毒方面表现良好的国家联结在一起。

A closer look yields some grounds for optimism.

仔细思考一下，我们是有理由感到乐观的。

The Economist⁸ has identified potential bubbles that account for around 35% of global GDP, 39% of all trade in goods and services and 42% of the world’s spending on tourism.

《经济学人》指出，潜在的旅游圈占全球GDP的35%，占商品和服务贸易的39%，以及世界旅游消费的42%。

But the challenge of connecting them also underscores how hard restarting the global economy will be.

但将它们联系起来是一项挑战，这突显了重启全球经济的难度。

Simply returning borders to pre-virus days is, for now, inconceivable.

就目前而言，连让边境恢复为病毒爆发前的样子都难以实现。

Many health experts, first critical of travel restrictions⁹, have come to view strict controls as useful, especially for places that have contained local infections.

许多起初对旅行限制持批评态度的卫生专家开始认为，严格的控制措施是有用的，尤其是在那些控制了本地疫情的地方。

“Every inbound case is a potential seed that can grow into an outbreak,” says Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at Hong Kong University.

香港大学流行病学家本·考林表示:“每一个传入的病例都是一粒可能导致疫情爆发的潜在种子。”

1 contemplate   

vt.盘算，计议；周密考虑；注视，凝视

参考例句：

• The possibility of war is too horrifying to contemplate.战争的可能性太可怕了，真不堪细想。
• The consequences would be too ghastly to contemplate.后果不堪设想。

2 mobility   

n.可动性，变动性，情感不定

参考例句：

• The difference in regional house prices acts as an obstacle to mobility of labour.不同地区房价的差异阻碍了劳动力的流动。
• Mobility is very important in guerrilla warfare.机动性在游击战中至关重要。

3 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

5 complicating   

使复杂化( complicate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• High spiking fever with chills is suggestive of a complicating pylephlebitis. 伴有寒战的高热，暗示合并门静脉炎。
• In America these actions become executive puberty rites, complicating relationships that are already complicated enough. 在美国，这些行动成了行政青春期的惯例，使本来已经够复杂的关系变得更复杂了。

6 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

7 binding   

有约束力的，有效的，应遵守的

参考例句：

• The contract was not signed and has no binding force. 合同没有签署因而没有约束力。
• Both sides have agreed that the arbitration will be binding. 双方都赞同仲裁具有约束力。

8 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

9 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制