2020年经济学人 通货膨胀和股权收益(2)

There are competing theories for the inverse¹ relationship; many date from the late 1970s and early 1980s.

相反关系中存在各种竞争理论；其中很多要追溯到20世纪70年代末至20世纪80年代。

A paper written by Franco Modigliani and Richard Cohn in 1979 put it down to "money illusion":

1979年，Franco Modigliani和Richard Cohn的一篇论文将其归因于“货币幻觉”：

rising inflation leads to falling stock prices because investors² discount future earnings³ by reference to higher nominal⁴ bond yields.

通货膨胀上升导致股价下降，因为投资者根据较高名义债券收益率贴现未来收益。

The correct discount factor is a real yield (ie, excluding compensation for expected inflation).

正确的贴现因子是实际收益（例如，不包括预期通货膨胀的补偿）。

Other theories said that inflation is merely a reflection of deeper forces that hurt stock prices;

其他理论称，通货膨胀只不过是影响股价的更深层次因素的反应；

an overheating economy; rising uncertainty⁵; political instability.

一种过热的经济；不断增长的不确定性；政治不稳定性。

In the decades since then, inflation has steadily⁶ declined. Stocks have re-rated.

在此之后的几十年中，通货膨胀稳步下降。股票重新评估。

Investors have been willing to pay an ever-higher price for a given stream of future earnings.

投资者一直愿意支付更高的价格来换取既定的未来收益流。

You might put this down to the Modigliani-Cohn effect in reverse, since nominal bond yields have also fallen.

你或许会反过来将它归因于Modigliani-Cohn效应，因为名义债券收益率也下降了。

But so too have long-term real bond yields. The real rate of interest needed to keep inflation stable is lower.

但长期实际债券收益率也是如此。保持通货膨胀稳定所需的实际利率更低。

Now for the headache. For the most part, financial markets reflect the view that inflation will remain low.

现在来看看让他们头疼的问题。在很大程度上，金融市场反映了对通货膨胀将保持低位的观点。

Nominal bond yields are negative in much of Europe and barely positive in America. In stockmarkets, there has for a while been a sharp divide.

欧洲大部分地区的名义债券收益率为负，而美国的则勉强为正。在股票市场，有一段时间出现了一个巨大分歧。

Companies that do well in disinflationary environments (technology, branded goods) are expensive;

在反通胀环境下表现良好的公司（科技、品牌商品）价格昂贵；

businesses that might do better in inflationary ones (commodities, real-estate and banking) have generally lagged behind.

而在通胀环境中表现更好的公司（日用品、房地产以及银行）则普遍落后了。

The immediate⁷ prospect⁸ is indeed for an excess of supply. The unemployment rate in America is close to 15%. Inflation is already falling.

眼下的前景确实是供应过剩。美国失业率接近15%。通胀已然正在下降。

Further out, though, the outlook for inflation is murkier⁹. There is no shortage of pundits¹⁰ who say it is primed to pick up. They have a case.

然而从长远来看，通货膨胀的前景更加扑朔迷离。不乏有权威人士称，其已做好回升的准备。他们有一个证据。

Globalisation, a key reason for the secular¹¹ decline in inflation, is reversing. Big companies are likely to emerge from the crisis with more pricing power.

通货膨胀长期下降的一个关键因素——全球化，正在逆转。大公司更有可能通过其更大的定价权摆脱危机。

The rise of populism in rich countries is hard to square with endlessly low inflation. Fiscal¹² stimulus¹³ is in favour.

富裕国家民粹主义的崛起很难与无休止的低通胀相协调。财政刺激是有利的。

The more government debt piles up, the greater the temptation to try to inflate¹⁴ it away.

政府累积的负债越多，试图通过膨胀消除负债的诱惑就越大。

For all such speculation¹⁵, it is far from clear whether, how fast and by how much inflation might rise.

对于所有这类推测，我们对于通货膨胀是否会上升，上升的速度以及上升的额度还不得而知。

A modest pickup¹⁶ might even be good for stock prices especially in Europe, where bourses are tilted¹⁷ towards the cyclical stocks most hurt by unduly¹⁸ low inflation.

小幅回升甚至可能对股价有利，尤其是在欧洲，那里的交易所倾向于那些因通胀过低而受影响最严重的周期性股票。

But it is foolish to believe that inflation will leave your stock portfolio¹⁹ unharmed--and too easy to forget the damage it can do.

但相信通胀不会对你的股票投资组合造成伤害是很愚蠢的，而且很容易就忘记了通胀所能造成的影响。

1 inverse   

adj.相反的，倒转的，反转的；n.相反之物；v.倒转

参考例句：

• Evil is the inverse of good.恶是善的反面。
• When the direct approach failed he tried the inverse.当直接方法失败时，他尝试相反的做法。

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

4 nominal   

adj.名义上的；(金额、租金)微不足道的

参考例句：

• The king was only the nominal head of the state. 国王只是这个国家名义上的元首。
• The charge of the box lunch was nominal.午餐盒饭收费很少。

5 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

6 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

7 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

8 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

9 murkier   

adj.阴暗的( murky的比较级 )；昏暗的；（指水）脏的；混浊的

参考例句：

• If not, the outcome may be a lot murkier. 而如不然，结果可能就会更加含糊不清。 来自互联网
• This leads us into the murkier areas of human behaviour. 这让我们看到了人类行为较阴暗的领域。 来自互联网

10 pundits   

n.某一学科的权威，专家( pundit的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The pundits disagree on the best way of dealing with the problem. 如何妥善处理这一问题，专家众说纷纭。 来自辞典例句
• That did not stop Chinese pundits from making a fuss over it. 这并没有阻止中国的博学之士对此大惊小怪。 来自互联网

11 secular   

n.牧师，凡人；adj.世俗的，现世的，不朽的

参考例句：

• We live in an increasingly secular society.我们生活在一个日益非宗教的社会。
• Britain is a plural society in which the secular predominates.英国是个世俗主导的多元社会。

12 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

13 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

14 inflate   

vt.使膨胀，使骄傲，抬高（物价）

参考例句：

• The buyers bid against each other and often inflate the prices they pay.买主们竞相投标，往往人为地提高价钱。
• Stuart jumped into the sea and inflated the liferaft.斯图尔特跳到海里给救生艇充气。

15 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

16 pickup   

n.拾起，获得

参考例句：

• I would love to trade this car for a pickup truck.我愿意用这辆汽车换一辆小型轻便卡车。||The luck guy is a choice pickup for the girls.那位幸运的男孩是女孩子们想勾搭上的人。

17 tilted   

v. 倾斜的

参考例句：

• Suddenly the boat tilted to one side. 小船突然倾向一侧。
• She tilted her chin at him defiantly. 她向他翘起下巴表示挑衅。

18 unduly   

adv.过度地，不适当地

参考例句：

• He did not sound unduly worried at the prospect.他的口气听上去对前景并不十分担忧。
• He argued that the law was unduly restrictive.他辩称法律的约束性有些过分了。

19 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。