2020年经济学人 欧洲的劳动力市场--已止痛

Labour markets in Europe

欧洲的劳动力市场

Pain relief

已止痛

The successes of furlough schemes—and their side effects

休假计划的成功及其负面影响

So impressive is Germany's trading prowess that when the coronavirus pandemic struck, it even found something new to export: its short-time working scheme, or Kurzarbeit. Most OECD countries deployed¹ such programmes this year, as they sought to avert² mass unemployment and support workers' incomes during lockdowns. Those that had never had them, such as Britain, imported the idea wholesale³. Others, such as Spain, drastically expanded access to existing programmes. America, however, went in another direction, preferring to increase the generosity⁴ of unemployment benefits.

德国的贸易能力十分惊人，在新冠肺炎袭击之时竟然还能挖掘新的出口商品：即它的“短时工作计划”，或者叫“缩时工作制”。为了防止封锁期间出现大规模的失业并支持工人的收入，今年多数经合组织成员国都部署了这一计划。而那些从未有过该计划的国家，比如英国，直接批发了这一计划。其它国家，比如西班牙，也极大地扩大了对现有计划的访问。只有美国另寻他路，它更喜欢大方地增加失业救济。

In April more than 26m workers in Britain, France, Germany and Spain were on furlough schemes, equivalent to a fifth of the workforce⁵. While America's unemployment rate swelled⁶ from just over 3% in February to 14.7% in April, in Europe it barely budged⁷.

4月，英国、法国、德国以及西班牙有2600多万名工人参与了休假计划，该数字相当于劳动力总数的五分之一。同时，该月美国的失业率已经从2月的3%暴涨到了14.7%，而欧洲的失业率几乎没有变动。

A few months on, how has the picture changed? In the big four countries nearly 11m workers were still on job-retention schemes in the summer, or 9% of the workforce. The numbers have fallen dramatically in France and Spain. By contrast, 15% of British workers were still furloughed in July, according to official data, a fifth of whom worked in the hospitality industry. A survey of employers suggests the share of furloughed workers fell to 11% in August.

几个月过去了，情况发生了怎样的变化？今年夏天，这四个大国中仍有1100万名工人（占劳动力总数的9%）处在“短时工作计划”中，而在法国和西班牙这一数字已经急剧下降。相比之下，根据官方统计，英国直至7月份仍有15%的工人在休假，其中有五分之一的人在服务行业工作。一项针对雇主的调查显示，8月休假工人的比例已降至11%。

The furlough schemes were intended to freeze the labour market in place, covering the cost of workers so that bosses facing a temporary cash crunch⁸ during shutdowns did not have to sack them, and allowing for seamless recovery once economies reopened. Most people coming off the schemes indeed seem to have resumed work. Unemployment rates have edged up only a little as the number on short-time working schemes has fallen. Workforce participation⁹ has so far fallen very slightly, suggesting few were discouraged enough to leave the labour market altogether.

休假计划的目的是冻结现有的劳动力市场，支付工人的成本，这样在停工期间面临暂时现金短缺的老板们就不必解雇他们，并能够在经济重新开放后实现无缝复苏。大多数退出该计划的人实际上似乎已经重新回到工作岗位。随着参与“短时工作计划”的人数的下降，失业率小幅上升。迄今为止，劳动参与度仅略有下降，这表明因受很大打击而彻底离开劳动力市场的人极少。

Despite these successes, though, about 11m workers are still waiting to resume their normal working hours. The longer they are furloughed, the more likely it is that normality is not restored. Yet they have little incentive¹⁰ to find other work. In June economists¹¹ at Allianz, an insurer, reckoned that up to 9m furloughed jobs in industries such as tourism and hospitality in Europe may be eventually culled¹².

然而，尽管取得了这些成功，仍有1100万名工人在等待恢复正常的工作时间。他们休假的时间越长，就越有可能无法恢复正常。而且他们也无意去找其它工作。6月，保险公司安联的经济学家估计，欧洲的旅游业和酒店业等行业将有高达900万个被迫休假的工作岗位最终会被淘汰。

This suggests that the true unemployment rate in Europe is probably higher than official figures suggest. As an upper bound, if you were to assume that all of those still on furlough schemes are in fact out of a job, unemployment rates in the big four would rise to 12-20%. America's rate, in contrast, has gone in the opposite direction, falling from its peak in April to just below 8% in September.

这表明，欧洲的真实失业率可能要高于官方显示的数据。作为上限，如果假设所有仍在休假计划中的人实际上都失业了，那么四大国家的失业率将上升到12-20%。与之相反，美国的失业率自4月达到峰值后9月已降至略低于8%。

1 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

2 avert   

v.防止，避免；转移(目光、注意力等)

参考例句：

• He managed to avert suspicion.他设法避嫌。
• I would do what I could to avert it.我会尽力去避免发生这种情况。

3 wholesale   

n.批发；adv.以批发方式；vt.批发，成批出售

参考例句：

• The retail dealer buys at wholesale and sells at retail.零售商批发购进货物，以零售价卖出。
• Such shoes usually wholesale for much less.这种鞋批发出售通常要便宜得多。

4 generosity   

n.大度，慷慨，慷慨的行为

参考例句：

• We should match their generosity with our own.我们应该像他们一样慷慨大方。
• We adore them for their generosity.我们钦佩他们的慷慨。

5 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

6 swelled   

增强( swell的过去式和过去分词 )； 肿胀； （使）凸出； 充满（激情）

参考例句：

• The infection swelled his hand. 由于感染，他的手肿了起来。
• After the heavy rain the river swelled. 大雨过后，河水猛涨。

7 budged   

v.（使）稍微移动( budge的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）改变主意，（使）让步

参考例句：

• Old Bosc had never budged an inch--he was totally indifferent. 老包斯克一直连动也没有动，他全然无所谓。 来自辞典例句
• Nobody budged you an inch. 别人一丁点儿都算计不了你。 来自辞典例句

8 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

9 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

10 incentive   

n.刺激；动力；鼓励；诱因；动机

参考例句：

• Money is still a major incentive in most occupations.在许多职业中，钱仍是主要的鼓励因素。
• He hasn't much incentive to work hard.他没有努力工作的动机。

11 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 culled   

v.挑选，剔除( cull的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The herd must be culled. 必须有选择地杀掉部分牧畜。 来自辞典例句
• The facts were culled from various sources. 这些事实是从各方收集到的。 来自辞典例句