经济学人 美国陷经济寒冬,春天还有多远?(2)

Other real-time measures capture economic activity more broadly. The share of small firms which have temporarily closed is probably rising. Consumer spending in the week ending November 22nd was down by 5% compared with the one before, according to Cardify, a data provider. Using mobility¹ data from Google, The Economist² has constructed an economic-activity index measuring visits to workplaces, transport hubs and places of retail³ and recreation. After rising steadily⁴ during the autumn, the index has fallen back—though America still looks better than Europe, where the economic-activity index has crashed as governments have imposed another round of lockdowns. JPMorgan Chase, a bank, produces an estimate of monthly American GDP growth from a range of real-time data. In a report published on December 2nd, it suggests that output stopped growing in November.

其他实时指标能够更广泛地捕捉经济活动。暂时关闭的小公司所占比例可能正在上升。数据提供方Cardify称，截至11月22日的一周内，消费者支出较前一周下降了5%。《经济学人》利用谷歌提供的移动数据，构建了一个经济活动指数，该指数可用来衡量对工作场所、交通枢纽以及零售和娱乐场所的访问量。该指数在秋季稳步上升之后已经回落。不过美国的情况看起来仍然比欧洲好，由于欧洲各国政府实施了新一轮的封锁，欧洲的经济活动指数已经崩溃。摩根大通银行根据一系列实时数据对美国月度国内生产总值增长进行了估算。12月2日发表的一份报告显示美国11月份的产出已经停止增长。

Three factors explain the slowdown. To some extent it was inevitable⁵. Loosening lockdowns had allowed millions of people to return to work and start spending again. But there was no comparable loosening of coronavirus restrictions⁶ after that. So it was never realistic for America to repeat the 7.4% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth that it saw in July to September.

三个因素解释了美国经济放缓的原因。在某种程度上，这是不可避免的。放松封锁使数百万人重返工作岗位，重新开始消费。但是在那之后再没有出现类似放松冠状病毒限制的情况。因此，对美国来说，GDP季度环比增长重新达到7月至9月的7.4%是不现实的。

Fiscal⁷ policy is the second factor. Another reason the economy bounced back so quickly in the summer was the enormous generosity⁸ of the stimulus⁹ packages agreed by Congress in the spring, worth some $3trn (or 14% of GDP). Yet Congress has so far failed to agree to another one, even though the most bullish forecasters still reckon a package worth over $500bn is required to help the economy back to some semblance¹⁰ of normality. A programme set up by President Donald Trump¹¹ to raise unemployment- insurance (UI) payments by $300 a week, which had boosted aggregate¹² household incomes by 1.5%, wound down in October. States and local governments, facing a severe budget crunch¹³, cut over 1m jobs in the first six months of the pandemic, more than they lost even during the financial crisis of 2007 to 09.

财政政策是第二个因素。美国经济在夏季如此迅速反弹的另一个原因是国会在春季通过的慷慨的一揽子经济刺激方案，价值约30万亿美元（相当于GDP的14%）。然而国会迄今仍未通过另一项经济刺激方案，尽管最乐观的预测人士仍认为，要帮助美国经济恢复正常状态，需要一个价值5000多亿美元的一揽子经济刺激方案。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普设立了一项每周提供额外300美元失业救济金的计划，该计划曾使美国家庭总收入增加了1.5%，但在10月份结束。美国各州和地方政府面临严重的预算紧缩危机，他们在大流行的前六个月削减了100多万个工作岗位，甚至超过了2007-09年金融危机期间的职位损失。

The third and most important reason for the slowdown is the virus itself. Until recently many Americans, especially in Republican- leaning areas, seemed oddly happy to go about their business as normal. In South Dakota in September and October, for instance, visitors to sites of retail and recreation were 1.5% higher than usual for that time of year, even as coronavirus infections surged. Analysis by The Economist, drawing on Google data and work by Mark Muro and colleagues at the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, found that in the summer and autumn people in pro-Trump areas were half as likely to avoid public places as people living in areas that had voted for Joe Biden.

美国经济放缓的第三个也是最重要的原因就是病毒本身。直到最近，奇怪的是，许多美国人似乎乐于像往常一样忙活自己的事情，特别是在倾向于共和党的地区。例如，在南达科他州的9月和10月，尽管冠状病毒感染激增，但零售和娱乐场所的游客比往年同一时间段增加了1.5%。《经济学人》利用谷歌数据和智库布鲁金斯学会的马克·穆罗及其同事的研究成果分析发现，在夏季和秋季，支持特朗普的地区的民众避开公共场所的可能性是投票支持乔·拜登的地区的民众的一半。

1 mobility   

n.可动性，变动性，情感不定

参考例句：

• The difference in regional house prices acts as an obstacle to mobility of labour.不同地区房价的差异阻碍了劳动力的流动。
• Mobility is very important in guerrilla warfare.机动性在游击战中至关重要。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

4 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

5 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

6 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

7 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

8 generosity   

n.大度，慷慨，慷慨的行为

参考例句：

• We should match their generosity with our own.我们应该像他们一样慷慨大方。
• We adore them for their generosity.我们钦佩他们的慷慨。

9 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

10 semblance   

n.外貌，外表

参考例句：

• Her semblance of anger frightened the children.她生气的样子使孩子们感到害怕。
• Those clouds have the semblance of a large head.那些云的形状像一个巨大的人头。

11 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

12 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。

13 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。