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Can the Russia-Ukraine crisis still be resolved diplomatically?

Transcript¹

NPR's Debbie Elliott speaks with Max Boot, a senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, about Russia's military buildup along the Ukrainian border.

DEBBIE ELLIOTT, HOST:

Russia has positioned around 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine. As Michele Kelemen just indicated, Vladimir Putin's government has issued a list of demands that the United States and European allies are highly unlikely to agree to. And President Biden said this week that he expects Putin to send troops over the border. Max Boot is a military historian and authority on armed conflict and joins us to talk about the situation. Good morning.

MAX BOOT: Good morning.

ELLIOTT: As we just heard from Michele, Secretary Blinken is meeting this morning with his Russian counterpart. Do you have hopes that this meeting can produce some common ground? Can this crisis still be resolved diplomatically?

BOOT: I don't have a lot of hope for this meeting. I mean, you saw last week that there were negotiations² all last week with Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman in Europe meeting with the Russians and various European envoys³ meeting with the Russians. And it really produced very little because the Russian demands are ones that the West really cannot meet. Essentially⁴, Russia is asking for Ukraine to be returned to its sphere of influence. Putin is essentially trying to revive the old Soviet⁵ empire and to kick NATO out of Eastern Europe. Those are not demands that the U.S. and NATO are going to be able to grant. And so the question is, what is Putin's next move going to be?

ELLIOTT: So what is his next move? And what is he actually trying to gain by invading Ukraine?

BOOT: I think it's pretty clear what he's trying to gain because he has spoken about the collapse⁶ of the Soviet Union as the greatest catastrophe⁷ of the 20th century. That is what he is seeking to undo⁸. He wants to essentially revive the Soviet empire with himself at its head. And he wants to dominate Ukraine. In fact, he has repeatedly denied that Ukraine is even an actual country. So he doesn't really recognize Ukraine's sovereignty. But that's a general, broad, long-term overarching objective. Nobody really knows what he's going to do in the short term or how far he is willing to take this current crisis, whether he wants to actually invade and occupy all of Ukraine or if there is a military option short of that that is likely to be implemented⁹ or if this is all just a bluff¹⁰ designed to get concessions¹¹ without actually having to go to war. The only person who really knows that is Putin himself.

ELLIOTT: So given that uncertainty¹², what would you advise the Biden administration to do to deter¹³ Russia from an invasion?

BOOT: You know, I think a lot of the things that they're doing are the right things - talking about severe sanctions and severe consequences. President Biden muddied that message a little bit at his press conference by saying that if it were only a minor¹⁴ incursion, that might be a different thing. But I think they've, you know, tried to clean that up. I think we should certainly be doing more to deliver military aid to the Ukrainians in the way that the British government is doing. They've been airlifting anti-armor weapons to Kyiv in the last few days. And I think it's also important for the U.S. and its allies to lay out a clear menu of sanctions right now instead of simply talking vaguely¹⁵ about, there will be severe consequences. Say, these are what the consequences will be - one, two, three, four. And that not only has clear signaling to Russia, but it also locks in the U.S. and its allies so that it'll be less likely that they will equivocate¹⁶ if the worst should happen.

ELLIOTT: So the U.S. and European allies, you know, have been warning time and time again of these crippling sanctions. Do you think that the threat of sanctions is enough to dissuade¹⁷ Putin?

BOOT: So far, it hasn't been. I mean, we imposed sanctions after the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine. And here we are again because Putin has survived. You know, the price of oil has gone up. The Russian Treasury¹⁸ is doing fine, even if the ordinary Russian people are not doing so well. So I don't think there's much indication so far that economic sanctions, per se, are enough to dissuade Putin. And I think they have to be - the threats have to be ramped¹⁹ up, including kicking Russia out of the SWIFT system if interbank transfers and going after Putin's own ill-gotten money, which is lodged²⁰ in the West to one extent or another.

ELLIOTT: We have just a few moments here, but we've had another analyst²¹ refer to this moment as something like the Cuban Missile Crisis. Do you agree?

BOOT: It's not a Cuban missile crisis because there is no real threat of a nuclear war between the United States and Russia. But it's still a very dangerous moment and potentially the worst conflict in Europe since 1945.

ELLIOTT: Thank you. Max Boot is a senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Thanks very much.

BOOT: Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

3 envoys   

使节( envoy的名词复数 )； 公使； 谈判代表； 使节身份

参考例句：

• the routine tit for tat when countries expel each other's envoys 国家相互驱逐对方使节这种惯常的报复行动
• Marco Polo's travelogue mentions that Kublai Khan sent envoys to Malgache. 马可波罗游记中提到忽必烈曾派使节到马尔加什。

4 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

5 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

6 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

7 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。

8 undo   

vt.解开，松开；取消，撤销

参考例句：

• His pride will undo him some day.他的傲慢总有一天会毁了他。
• I managed secretly to undo a corner of the parcel.我悄悄地设法解开了包裹的一角。

9 implemented   

v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• This agreement, if not implemented, is a mere scrap of paper. 这个协定如不执行只不过是一纸空文。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The economy is in danger of collapse unless far-reaching reforms are implemented. 如果不实施影响深远的改革，经济就面临崩溃的危险。 来自辞典例句

10 bluff   

v.虚张声势，用假象骗人；n.虚张声势，欺骗

参考例句：

• His threats are merely bluff.他的威胁仅仅是虚张声势。
• John is a deep card.No one can bluff him easily.约翰是个机灵鬼。谁也不容易欺骗他。

11 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

12 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

13 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。

14 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。

15 vaguely   

adv.含糊地，暖昧地

参考例句：

• He had talked vaguely of going to work abroad.他含糊其词地说了到国外工作的事。
• He looked vaguely before him with unseeing eyes.他迷迷糊糊的望着前面，对一切都视而不见。

16 equivocate   

v.模棱两可地，支吾其词

参考例句：

• Don't equivocate with me I want a straight answer to a straight question!别跟我绕弯子--我问的问题直截了当，回答也要直截了当！
• He is equivocating a lot about what is going to happen if and when there are elections.他支支吾吾地说着很多万一进行选举会发生的状况。

17 dissuade   

v.劝阻，阻止

参考例句：

• You'd better dissuade him from doing that.你最好劝阻他别那样干。
• I tried to dissuade her from investing her money in stocks and shares.我曾设法劝她不要投资于股票交易。

18 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

19 ramped   

土堤斜坡( ramp的过去式和过去分词 )； 斜道； 斜路； （装车或上下飞机的）活动梯

参考例句：

• With the arrival of George Lucas, the pace has ramped up. 随着乔治·卢卡斯的到来，速度大大加快。
• They also sold corporate bonds as the global financial crisis ramped up. 在全球金融危机加剧之际，他们还抛售了公司债券。

20 lodged   

v.存放( lodge的过去式和过去分词 )；暂住；埋入；（权利、权威等）归属

参考例句：

• The certificate will have to be lodged at the registry. 证书必须存放在登记处。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Our neighbours lodged a complaint against us with the police. 我们的邻居向警方控告我们。 来自《简明英汉词典》

21 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。