美国国家公共电台 NPR--Monkeypox cases in the U.S. have been falling since a peak in early August

Monkeypox cases in the U.S. have been falling since a peak in early August

Transcript¹

New daily monkeypox cases have been falling, and the CDC says cases are probably going to plateau or decline over the next few weeks.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

Just a few months ago, it looked like the U.S. had lost its chance to get monkeypox under control. Cases were soaring, and vaccines³ were in short supply. But now the story has taken a turn and this time in a good direction. In fact, some disease experts are even raising the idea that the U.S. could nearly eliminate the virus. Here to talk about the news are NPR health correspondents Pien Huang and Michaeleen Doucleff. Hi.

MICHAELEEN DOUCLEFF, BYLINE⁴: Good morning.

PIEN HUANG, BYLINE: Good morning.

FADEL: Good morning. So, Pien, it doesn't seem like we're hearing the same alarm bells about monkeypox anymore. Why is that?

HUANG: Well, that's because the outbreak has legitimately⁵ simmered down. Yes, the U.S. has had more than 26,000 confirmed cases since May, and unfortunately, two people have died from monkeypox in the U.S. But if you look at the trends, new cases have been falling since the peak in early August, and it's the lowest that it's been since June. Dr. Boghuma Titanji, an infectious disease doctor at Emory University, says that's a huge accomplishment⁶.

BOGHUMA TITANJI: I think that where we are now is certainly, I would say, the best-case scenario⁷ in terms of really showing the reflection of what can happen when you actually commit the tools that you have to fight an outbreak.

HUANG: Given the way that things look, the CDC says cases are probably going to plateau or decline over the next few weeks and fall significantly over the next few months. That's because the data shows that cases are still mostly concentrated among people with multiple sex partners and primarily gay and bisexual men and trans women. So as people within these populations get immunity⁸ from the virus, either by recovering from infections or getting vaccinated⁹, the virus is finding fewer and fewer new people that it can spread to.

FADEL: So, Michaeleen, this wasn't always a given, right? There was a lot of concern initially¹⁰ that monkeypox could start spreading widely, especially places like daycares or in schools. Have we seen that at all?

DOUCLEFF: You know, we haven't seen that. There has been very little spread to children just across the board. I was looking at the data from the CDC the other day. And right now, only about 0.2% of cases have been in kids below age 16, so very few cases. And there has been no evidence the virus has spread in schools or daycare centers. If a person comes to school sick with monkeypox, there's no evidence they caught it there or that the virus has spread to anyone else.

FADEL: So Pien mentioned most cases are still among men who have sex with men. Do scientists have an understanding for why this might be the case and why monkeypox hasn't spread much among cisgender women or children?

DOUCLEFF: Yes. So several studies actually recently are starting to answer this question. One of those studies was published in the journal Science. And what they found was that monkeypox spreads at very different rates in different groups of people, and that rate depends on people's sexual activity. Remember, monkeypox spreads primarily through contact during sex. In this study, scientists created a mathematical model of the current outbreak and found that outbreaks are very likely in sexual networks where a small number of people have a high number of sexual partners. Outside these kinds of networks, outbreaks of monkeypox are actually really rare because the virus just doesn't spread very well between people.

FADEL: So it isn't a virus that spreads all that well outside of sex.

DOUCLEFF: Absolutely. You know, a big concern with schools and daycares was largely because the virus can in some instances - very rare instances - spread through saliva¹¹. So you can get it by being up close in somebody's face while they're talking or coughing. But another study that came out recently showed that there isn't very much virus found in people's upper respiratory tracts¹². Instead, the virus particles are primarily located on the skin and in the anus, where the lesions are. Otherwise, there isn't much virus elsewhere.

FADEL: OK, I'm going to turn back to you, Pien. Given the way things are going, is monkeypox still a public health emergency in the U.S.?

HUANG: Yeah, it's still officially a public health emergency, and there's still work to be done. You know, the gains that we've been talking about, the cases coming down - while they're heading in the right direction, they're happening unevenly¹³. And, you know, the most recent CDC data shows that monkeypox cases are down dramatically in white men, but nearly 70% of cases are now being found in Black or Latino men. All of this means that the outbreak could still use the national resources, the national coordination¹⁴ that comes with being a public health crisis.

FADEL: Do we know why the numbers are much higher among Black and Latino men? Is this access to health care or...?

HUANG: You know, we've seen the same thing with COVID, where the people with the education, the resources, the networks get access to the resources and the vaccines first, and then you're sort of left with a more diffused¹⁵ group of people who are harder to reach, who aren't necessarily connected in the same way to all the resources. So I think that's what we're seeing now. I think that's what I've heard from other experts as well.

FADEL: So at this point, with enough time, does the U.S. have a shot at getting rid of monkeypox?

HUANG: There are a lot of different opinions on this. Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, for one - he's an infectious disease doctor at the University of Southern California - he's super optimistic.

JEFFREY KLAUSNER: I think we can expect to see, you know, certainly, you know, regional elimination¹⁶, potentially national elimination, where we would not see a sustained number of cases.

DOUCLEFF: So this is Michaeleen. I want to jump in here and push back a little bit, because I think there are several reasons why eliminating this virus is going to be really hard, perhaps impossible. For starters, there's good evidence now that the virus spreads cryptically¹⁷. That is, some people have monkeypox but don't know it. They're either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, but they are still contagious¹⁸. And when a disease spreads this way - so hiddenly (ph), kind of hidden transmissions - it can be extremely difficult to eliminate, as you can imagine. On top of that, you know, monkeypox cases are still rising in many countries around the world. Outside North America and Europe, people have had very little access to the vaccine². Over in Nigeria, monkeypox has been spreading in people for seven years and, for most of that time, almost completely under the radar¹⁹. And yet the country still hasn't been offered any vaccine. You know, as long as monkeypox in these other countries spreads this way, it is likely going to be a problem here in the U.S., at least at some level.

FADEL: And Pien, is that your sense as well?

HUANG: Yeah, I think that viruses can be really, really hard to predict. And we're now hearing of some evidence that the monkeypox virus is going through huge changes as it spreads, and we don't really know what those implications are yet. So a lot of the people that I've talked with said they can certainly see how the U.S. can get to a place where monkeypox is not necessarily a public health emergency of national concern but is still a problematic disease that looks like a lot of other STDs.

FADEL: NPR health correspondents Pien Huang and Michaeleen Doucleff, thank you so much.

DOUCLEFF: You're welcome.

HUANG: You're welcome.

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1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 vaccine   

n.牛痘苗，疫苗；adj.牛痘的，疫苗的

参考例句：

• The polio vaccine has saved millions of lives.脊髓灰质炎疫苗挽救了数以百万计的生命。
• She takes a vaccine against influenza every fall.她每年秋季接种流感疫苗。

3 vaccines   

疫苗，痘苗( vaccine的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His team are at the forefront of scientific research into vaccines. 他的小组处于疫苗科研的最前沿。
• The vaccines were kept cool in refrigerators. 疫苗放在冰箱中冷藏。

4 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

5 legitimately   

ad.合法地；正当地，合理地

参考例句：

• The radio is legitimately owned by the company. 该电台为这家公司所合法拥有。
• She looked for nothing save what might come legitimately and without the appearance of special favour. 她要的并不是男人们的额外恩赐，而是合法正当地得到的工作。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

6 accomplishment   

n.完成，成就，（pl.）造诣，技能

参考例句：

• The series of paintings is quite an accomplishment.这一系列的绘画真是了不起的成就。
• Money will be crucial to the accomplishment of our objectives.要实现我们的目标，钱是至关重要的。

7 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

8 immunity   

n.优惠；免除；豁免，豁免权

参考例句：

• The law gives public schools immunity from taxation.法律免除公立学校的纳税义务。
• He claims diplomatic immunity to avoid being arrested.他要求外交豁免以便避免被捕。

9 vaccinated   

[医]已接种的，种痘的，接种过疫菌的

参考例句：

• I was vaccinated against tetanus. 我接种了破伤风疫苗。
• Were you vaccinated against smallpox as a child? 你小时候打过天花疫苗吗？

10 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

11 saliva   

n.唾液，口水

参考例句：

• He wiped a dribble of saliva from his chin.他擦掉了下巴上的几滴口水。
• Saliva dribbled from the baby's mouth.唾液从婴儿的嘴里流了出来。

12 tracts   

大片土地( tract的名词复数 )； 地带； （体内的）道； （尤指宣扬宗教、伦理或政治的）短文

参考例句：

• vast tracts of forest 大片大片的森林
• There are tracts of desert in Australia. 澳大利亚有大片沙漠。

13 unevenly   

adv.不均匀的

参考例句：

• Fuel resources are very unevenly distributed. 燃料资源分布很不均匀。
• The cloth is dyed unevenly. 布染花了。

14 coordination   

n.协调，协作

参考例句：

• Gymnastics is a sport that requires a considerable level of coordination.体操是一项需要高协调性的运动。
• The perfect coordination of the dancers and singers added a rhythmic charm to the performance.舞蹈演员和歌手们配合得很好，使演出更具魅力。

15 diffused   

散布的，普及的，扩散的

参考例句：

• A drop of milk diffused in the water. 一滴牛奶在水中扩散开来。
• Gases and liquids diffused. 气体和液体慢慢混合了。

16 elimination   

n.排除，消除，消灭

参考例句：

• Their elimination from the competition was a great surprise.他们在比赛中遭到淘汰是个很大的意外。
• I was eliminated from the 400 metres in the semi-finals.我在400米半决赛中被淘汰。

17 cryptically   

参考例句：

• Less cryptically, he said the arms race was still on. 他又说，军备竞赛仍然在继续。 来自互联网
• The amending of A-Key must be processed cryptically in OTA authentication. 在OTA鉴权中，A-Key的修改必须以保密的方式进行。 来自互联网

18 contagious   

adj.传染性的，有感染力的

参考例句：

• It's a highly contagious infection.这种病极易传染。
• He's got a contagious laugh.他的笑富有感染力。

19 radar   

n.雷达，无线电探测器

参考例句：

• They are following the flight of an aircraft by radar.他们正在用雷达追踪一架飞机的飞行。
• Enemy ships were detected on the radar.敌舰的影像已显现在雷达上。