美国国家公共电台 NPR--Examining the importance of the only bridge connecting Crimea to Russia

Examining the importance of the only bridge connecting Crimea to Russia

Transcript¹

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to Andrew Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and NPR's Jason Beaubien about the implications of the explosion on the bridge.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Andrew Weiss, who directs research on Russia and Eurasia at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is also the author of a forthcoming biography of Vladimir Putin called "Accidental Czar." Welcome to the program, sir.

ANDREW WEISS: Great to be here.

INSKEEP: Let's talk about the bridge that was struck over the weekend that seems to have led up to the Russian apparent retaliation² or response on Ukrainian cities. How much does that bridge to Crimea mean to Vladimir Putin?

WEISS: Well, in practical terms, right now, it means a great deal because one of the most important pieces of Ukrainian territory that Vladimir Putin's mind has to be focused on right now is Crimea. And that bridge was both a symbolic³ gesture to connect mother Russia to Crimea, which was seized from and illegally annexed⁴ in 2014 from Ukraine. But right now, the Russians are in need of good military infrastructure⁵ and supply and logistics routes. And that bridge was a key part of the plan.

INSKEEP: And just to emphasize that this is a bridge that's used by civilians⁷, used by civilian⁶ traffic. But it sounds like it would count as a military target for that purpose.

WEISS: Well, the U.S. government, during the earlier phases of this war, had been at pains to stress that it was counseling the Ukrainians to avoid targeting Russian territory proper and to avoid attacks that could provoke a cycle of escalation⁸ against Ukraine. So the bridge has been important symbolic issue throughout the war. People were always wondering what, if anything, might prompt the Ukrainians to attack it. We know it was Putin's 70th birthday. And that provided an important psychological boost to the Ukrainians and to their supporters, to show that no targets are off limits. The question now is, are we in an escalatory spiral? Today's attacks on civilians across Ukraine indicates that we very much are.

INSKEEP: Well, let's follow up on that. But first, let's bring Jason Beaubien back into the conversation. He's in Kyiv. And he's got a question for you. Jason, Go.

JASON BEAUBIEN, BYLINE⁹: Yeah. I mean, I think one of the big questions that I keep hearing from Ukrainians is, what is it that President Putin really wants? And I wonder whether you have some insight on that.

WEISS: So that is the $64,000 question, Jason. In the first phase of this war in 2014, 2015, people were asking the same questions. The Russians have always done a lousy job of defining their strategic objectives, which, in theory, leaves them plenty of flexibility¹⁰. But it also denies people on their side a real sense of what they're fighting for. In the most recent instance, both President Putin and former president, now adviser¹¹ Dmitry Medvedev have emphasized that they want regime change in Kyiv.

And President Putin, when he met today with his top security cabinet, basically once again labeled the government in Kyiv an international terrorist organization, effectively. And he compared Ukrainian attacks on the Kerch bridge, as well as other what he claims are terrorist attacks, as indicating that Ukraine is up there now in the ranks of major international terrorist organizations. So we're seeing the Russian government try to delegitimize the government of Ukraine. They're not going to succeed in that. But it definitely demonstrates that they still want President Zelenskyy out. And they want a structurally¹² deferential¹³ Ukraine to replace the current government of Ukraine, which is obviously independent.

INSKEEP: I guess it also emphasizes - doesn't it? - that there's no inclination¹⁴ from Putin to negotiate or back down or retreat from Ukraine. You can't give up against an enemy that you define the way that Putin is defining Ukraine.

WEISS: No. And at no point in this war, starting in 2014, have the Russians ever negotiated in good faith. So there are calls from various Western leaders and others around the world saying, oh, let's talk to Putin. Let's find out what he wants, maybe give him something, and he'll back off. I think that's a fallacious idea.

INSKEEP: Well, let me just ask, though, about this Russian retaliation. This is deadly. It's destructive. Civilians are dead. People are living amid destruction and in fear once again in Kyiv. So I don't want to say it has no effect. And yet, on some level, does it not indicate a degree of Russian impotence that all they can do is fling missiles from a distance into cities that they thought they were going to conquer months ago? And they're getting farther away. Their troops are even farther away rather than the reverse.

WEISS: Well, it's an interesting point, Steve. Russia, at the beginning phase of this war, had used precision-guided weapons like cruise missiles to attack various targets around Ukraine. And they had launched about 2,000 of those attacks. And then, at some point, they held off. And that was because they were running short of those kinds of precision-guided munitions¹⁵. We're seeing today an indication that Russia is prepared to dip into its arsenal¹⁶ to attack what they claim are military targets. And as we see from Jason's reporting, they're not military targets. But at the same time, we need to be prepared for this war to go on for considerably¹⁷ longer than any of us would like. And for the Russians, what they have at their disposal right now is the ability to escalate¹⁸ the war either by attacking civilian infrastructure, critical infrastructure like dams or power plants, and to make life absolutely miserable¹⁹ for civilians who are in Ukraine today.

INSKEEP: Well, let's talk about further escalation. There is, of course, always the fear and the threat, the open threat by Russia, to use nuclear weapons. I want to try to think about that responsibly, if we can. What is a way to think about the risk here and how we can tell if the risk is getting greater?

WEISS: So if there's one thing the Russians are really good at, it's getting in our heads. And so when Vladimir Putin spoke²⁰ on September 21 about mobilizing and calling up reservists, what he was doing there at the same time was a very loud set of saber-rattling and saying that all possible weapons are potentially at his disposal, including nuclear weapons. And we've seen that Western leaders, including President Biden in recent days, are quite worried about that possibility. The possibility may be low. I think he's definitely trying to get Western governments to try to put pressure on the Ukrainians to back off. And he's using this threat to intimidate²¹ Ukraine and its Western supporters. The scenarios²² for Russia to use nuclear weapons, though, I think, are much more tied to something related to his personal survival or the survival of the Russian government, rather than a way to kind of flip²³ the script on the battlefield.

INSKEEP: Meaning that you think Putin would only use nuclear weapons if he thought the alternative was his own death?

WEISS: Or the destruction of the Russian state, yeah. I think those are the main scenarios that would require, in Putin's mind, the use of nuclear weapons. But he wants to create as much doubt and panic among Western leaders right now to put pressure for Ukraine to come to the bargaining table with him.

INSKEEP: Andrew Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thanks very much. Really appreciate your insights.

WEISS: Thanks for having me, Steve.

INSKEEP: And we also heard from NPR's Jason Beaubien, who's in Kyiv today.

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1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 retaliation   

n.报复，反击

参考例句：

• retaliation against UN workers 对联合国工作人员的报复
• He never said a single word in retaliation. 他从未说过一句反击的话。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 symbolic   

adj.象征性的，符号的，象征主义的

参考例句：

• It is symbolic of the fighting spirit of modern womanhood.它象征着现代妇女的战斗精神。
• The Christian ceremony of baptism is a symbolic act.基督教的洗礼仪式是一种象征性的做法。

4 annexed   

[法] 附加的，附属的

参考例句：

• Germany annexed Austria in 1938. 1938年德国吞并了奥地利。
• The outlying villages were formally annexed by the town last year. 那些偏远的村庄于去年正式被并入该镇。

5 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

6 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

7 civilians   

平民，百姓( civilian的名词复数 )； 老百姓

参考例句：

• the bloody massacre of innocent civilians 对无辜平民的血腥屠杀
• At least 300 civilians are unaccounted for after the bombing raids. 遭轰炸袭击之后，至少有300名平民下落不明。

8 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

9 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

10 flexibility   

n.柔韧性，弹性，（光的）折射性，灵活性

参考例句：

• Her great strength lies in her flexibility.她的优势在于她灵活变通。
• The flexibility of a man's muscles will lessen as he becomes old.人老了肌肉的柔韧性将降低。

11 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

12 structurally   

在结构上

参考例句：

• The house roof was (structurally) unsound. 这屋顶（结构）不牢固。
• Pinhole on shot-hole damage is never structurally significant. 针孔和蛀洞所造成的危害对结构的影响不大。

13 deferential   

adj. 敬意的，恭敬的

参考例句：

• They like five-star hotels and deferential treatment.他们喜欢五星级的宾馆和毕恭毕敬的接待。
• I am deferential and respectful in the presence of artists.我一向恭敬、尊重艺术家。

14 inclination   

n.倾斜；点头；弯腰；斜坡；倾度；倾向；爱好

参考例句：

• She greeted us with a slight inclination of the head.她微微点头向我们致意。
• I did not feel the slightest inclination to hurry.我没有丝毫着急的意思。

15 munitions   

n.军火，弹药；v.供应…军需品

参考例句：

• The army used precision-guided munitions to blow up enemy targets.军队用精确瞄准的枪炮炸掉敌方目标。
• He rose [made a career for himself] by dealing in munitions.他是靠贩卖军火发迹的。

16 arsenal   

n.兵工厂，军械库

参考例句：

• Even the workers at the arsenal have got a secret organization.兵工厂工人暗中也有组织。
• We must be the great arsenal of democracy.我们必须成为民主的大军火库。

17 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

18 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

19 miserable   

adj.悲惨的，痛苦的；可怜的，糟糕的

参考例句：

• It was miserable of you to make fun of him.你取笑他，这是可耻的。
• Her past life was miserable.她过去的生活很苦。

20 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

21 intimidate   

vt.恐吓，威胁

参考例句：

• You think you can intimidate people into doing what you want?你以为你可以威胁别人做任何事？
• The first strike capacity is intended mainly to intimidate adversary.第一次攻击的武力主要是用来吓阻敌方的。

22 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

23 flip   

vt.快速翻动；轻抛；轻拍；n.轻抛；adj.轻浮的

参考例句：

• I had a quick flip through the book and it looked very interesting.我很快翻阅了一下那本书，看来似乎很有趣。
• Let's flip a coin to see who pays the bill.咱们来抛硬币决定谁付钱。