美国国家公共电台 NPR--Early signs a new U.S. COVID surge could be on its way

Early signs a new U.S. COVID surge could be on its way

Transcript¹

As the U.S. heads into a third pandemic winter, the first hints are emerging that another possible surge of COVID-19 infections could be on its way.

So far, no national surge has started yet. The number of people getting infected, hospitalized and dying from COVID in the U.S. has been gently declining from a fairly high plateau.

But as the weather cools and people start spending more time inside, where the virus spreads more easily, the risks of a resurgence² increase.

The first hint of what could be in store is what's happening in Europe. Infections have been rising in many European countries, including the U.K., France, and Italy.

"In the past, what's happened in Europe often has been a harbinger for what's about to happen in the United States," says Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "So I think the bottom line message for us in this country is: We have to be prepared for what they are beginning to see in Europe."

Several computer models are projecting that COVID infections will continue to recede³ at least through the end of the year. But researchers stress there are many uncertainties⁴ that could change that, such as whether more infectious variants⁶ start to spread fast in the U.S.

In fact, scientists are watching a menagerie of new omicron subvariants that have emerged recently that appear to be even better at dodging⁷ immunity⁸.

"We look around the world and see countries such as Germany and France are seeing increases as we speak," says Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin. "That gives me pause. It adds uncertainty⁹ about what we can expect in the coming weeks and the coming months."

However, it's not certain the U.S. experience will echo Europe's, says Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina who helps run the COVID-19 Scenario¹⁰ Modeling Hub.

That's because it's not clear whether Europe's rising cases are related to people's greater susceptibility to new subvariants they've not yet been exposed to. In addition, different countries have different levels of immunity.

"If it is mostly just behavioral changes and climate, we might be able to avoid similar upticks if there is broad uptake of the bivalent vaccine," Lessler says. "If it is immune escape across several variants with convergent¹¹ evolution, the outlook for the U.S. may be more concerning."

In fact, some researchers say the U.S. is already starting to see early signs of that. For example, the levels of virus being detected in wastewater are up in some parts of the country, such in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Vermont and other parts of the Northeast. That could an early-warning sign of what's coming, though overall the virus is declining nationally.

"It's really too early to say something big is happening, but it's something that we're keeping an eye on," says Amy Kirby, national wastewater surveillance program lead at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

But infections and even hospitalizations have started rising in some of the same parts of New England, as well as some other northern areas, such as the Pacific Northwest, according to Dr. David Rubin, the director of the PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, which tracks the pandemic.

"We're seeing the northern rim¹² of the country beginning to show some evidence of increasing transmission," Rubin says. "The winter resurgence is beginning."

Assuming no dramatically different new variant⁵ emerges, it appears highly unlikely this year's surge would get as severe as the last two years in terms of severe disease and deaths.

"We have a lot more immunity in the population than we did last winter," says Jennifer Nuzzo, who runs the Pandemic Center at the Brown University School of Public Health.

"Not only have people gotten vaccinated¹³, but a lot of people have now gotten this virus. In fact, some people have gotten it multiple times. And that does build up [immunity] in the population and reduce overall our risk of severe illness," Nuzzo says.

Another crucial variable that could affect how the impact of a rise of infections is how many people get one of the new bivalent omicron boosters to shore up their waning¹⁴ immunity.

But booster uptake in the U.S. was already sluggish¹⁵. "Nearly 50% of people who are eligible¹⁶ for a booster have not gotten one," says William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. "It's wild. It's really crazy."

And the demand for the newest boosters is pretty lethargic¹⁷ so far. Fewer than 8 million people have gotten one of the new boosters since they became available over the Labor¹⁸ Day weekend, even though more than 200 million are eligible.

Given the likelihood of a surge, it's critical that people be up to date on vaccines¹⁹, says Nuzzo. "The most important thing that we could do is to take off the table that this virus can cause severe illness and death," she says.

"There are a lot of people who could really benefit from getting boosted but have not done so."

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 resurgence   

n.再起，复活，再现

参考例句：

• A resurgence of his grief swept over Nim.悲痛又涌上了尼姆的心头。
• Police say drugs traffickers are behind the resurgence of violence.警方说毒贩是暴力活动重新抬头的罪魁祸首。

3 recede   

vi.退(去)，渐渐远去；向后倾斜，缩进

参考例句：

• The colleges would recede in importance.大学的重要性会降低。
• He saw that the dirty water had begun to recede.他发现那污浊的水开始往下退了。

4 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

5 variant   

adj.不同的，变异的；n.变体，异体

参考例句：

• We give professional suggestions according to variant tanning stages for each customer.我们针对每位顾客不同的日晒阶段，提供强度适合的晒黑建议。
• In a variant of this approach,the tests are data- driven.这个方法的一个变种，是数据驱动的测试。

6 variants   

n.变体( variant的名词复数 )；变种；变型；（词等的）变体

参考例句：

• Those variants will be preserved in the'struggle for existence". 这些变异将在“生存竞争”中被保留下来。 来自辞典例句
• Like organisms, viruses have variants, generally called strains. 与其他生物一样，病毒也有变种，一般称之为株系。 来自辞典例句

7 dodging   

n.避开，闪过，音调改变v.闪躲( dodge的现在分词 )；回避

参考例句：

• He ran across the road, dodging the traffic. 他躲开来往的车辆跑过马路。
• I crossed the highway, dodging the traffic. 我避开车流穿过了公路。 来自辞典例句

8 immunity   

n.优惠；免除；豁免，豁免权

参考例句：

• The law gives public schools immunity from taxation.法律免除公立学校的纳税义务。
• He claims diplomatic immunity to avoid being arrested.他要求外交豁免以便避免被捕。

9 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

10 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

11 convergent   

adj.会聚的

参考例句：

• A curved-inwards wall has a convergent effect on wall spray.凹型壁面对碰壁喷雾有聚集作用。
• If a sequence is not convergent,it is divergent.如果一个序列不收敛，我们称它发散。

12 rim   

n.(圆物的)边，轮缘；边界

参考例句：

• The water was even with the rim of the basin.盆里的水与盆边平齐了。
• She looked at him over the rim of her glass.她的目光越过玻璃杯的边沿看着他。

13 vaccinated   

[医]已接种的，种痘的，接种过疫菌的

参考例句：

• I was vaccinated against tetanus. 我接种了破伤风疫苗。
• Were you vaccinated against smallpox as a child? 你小时候打过天花疫苗吗？

14 waning   

adj.（月亮）渐亏的，逐渐减弱或变小的n.月亏v.衰落( wane的现在分词 )；（月）亏；变小；变暗淡

参考例句：

• Her enthusiasm for the whole idea was waning rapidly. 她对整个想法的热情迅速冷淡了下来。
• The day is waning and the road is ending. 日暮途穷。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

15 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

16 eligible   

adj.有条件被选中的；(尤指婚姻等)合适(意)的

参考例句：

• He is an eligible young man.他是一个合格的年轻人。
• Helen married an eligible bachelor.海伦嫁给了一个中意的单身汉。

17 lethargic   

adj.昏睡的，懒洋洋的

参考例句：

• He felt too miserable and lethargic to get dressed.他心情低落无精打采，完全没有心思穿衣整装。
• The hot weather made me feel lethargic.炎热的天气使我昏昏欲睡。

18 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

19 vaccines   

疫苗，痘苗( vaccine的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His team are at the forefront of scientific research into vaccines. 他的小组处于疫苗科研的最前沿。
• The vaccines were kept cool in refrigerators. 疫苗放在冰箱中冷藏。