美国国家公共电台 NPR--CEOs no longer question if there will be a recession. The question now is when?

CEOs no longer question if there will be a recession. The question now is when?

Transcript¹

As the Federal Reserve maintains it can get high inflation under control without triggering a recession, 98% of CEOs surveyed say they're preparing for a recession in the next 12 to 18 months.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

The fight against high inflation is getting tougher, fueling fears the United States is heading for a recession. For many top executives, the question is no longer if there will be a recession, it's when. NPR's David Gura reports.

DAVID GURA, BYLINE²: It's hard to find a CEO anywhere who doesn't worry there will be a recession in the next year or year and a half. Steve Odland is the head of the Conference Board, a group of business leaders.

STEVE ODLAND: We're finding that our CEOs are overwhelmingly bracing³ for a recession both in the U.S. and in Europe, but also a slowdown virtually everywhere else.

GURA: Today, the Conference Board has released the results of its latest CEO survey. And 98% of respondents said they're preparing for recession in the United States. And 99% of them said they're getting ready for one in Europe. Jamie Dimon is in charge of the largest bank in the U.S., which means he pays very close attention to the global economy. And these days, a lot's got him worried. There's high inflation worldwide. The cost of borrowing is going up. There have been wild swings in stocks and bonds and currencies. And then, there's the war in Ukraine, which is already hurting Europe's economy.

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JAMIE DIMON: These are very, very serious things, which I think are likely to push the U.S. and, you know, the world - I mean, Europe is already in recession. And they're likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six or nine months from now.

GURA: Dimon said that on CNBC this week. And once again, he startled Wall Street. Back in June, Dimon forecasted an economic hurricane on the horizon. What's changed since then is how many CEOs agree with him and have started to prepare for a downturn. Steve Odland ran Office Depot⁴ before he got to the Conference Board.

ODLAND: You know, as a CEO, if you are going into a recession, what you want to do is you want to batten down the hatches.

GURA: And companies are starting to do that. Meta's Mark Zuckerberg recently told staff to expect layoffs⁵. FedEx is closing stores and cutting back on delivery as its CEO warns of a global recession. Executives say they feel less certain about the future. Odland notes.

ODLAND: So we're down to a level now that is the lowest level of CEO confidence since the Great Recession.

GURA: But the factors that led to that downturn were different. What started as a real estate slowdown infected the whole economy. Balance sheets were in tatters from households to companies, to banks. Today, it all goes back to high inflation and how the Federal Reserve is fighting it. And that is shaping how the heads of companies think about what the next recession will be like. David Rubenstein is the co-chairman of the Carlyle Group, one of the world's largest private equity⁶ firms. And as he decides where to invest billions, Rubenstein keeps a close eye on the economy.

DAVID RUBENSTEIN: I don't see a great recession. I see, if we have a recession, a modest recession - a two-quarter type of recession, not a one-year type of recession.

GURA: That's in line with the Conference Board's results. Eighty-five percent of CEOs expect a brief and shallow recession. And that's because this economy is so unique. People are still spending, but most of them are not overextended. Companies have strong balance sheets, and people have jobs. Steve Odland says almost half the CEOs surveyed plan to hire more workers over the next 12 months. And 85% of them expect to boost pay by 3% or more.

ODLAND: That's unheard of from this group going into a recession. Typically, you would hear that they're cutting back, that they are not going to increase wages.

GURA: Executives caution no one can predict what a recession will be like. And Federal Reserve officials continue to say it's not inevitable⁷. They argue there is a way for them to nail a so-called soft landing, whereby they get inflation under control without triggering a recession. But that path has gotten so narrow, most business leaders expect the landing will be a little rocky at least.

David Gura, NPR News, New York.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 bracing   

adj.令人振奋的

参考例句：

• The country is bracing itself for the threatened enemy invasion. 这个国家正准备奋起抵抗敌人的入侵威胁。
• The atmosphere in the new government was bracing. 新政府的气氛是令人振奋的。

4 depot   

n.仓库，储藏处；公共汽车站；火车站

参考例句：

• The depot is only a few blocks from here.公共汽车站离这儿只有几个街区。
• They leased the building as a depot.他们租用这栋大楼作仓库。

5 layoffs   

临时解雇( layoff的名词复数 )； 停工，停止活动

参考例句：

• Textile companies announced 2000 fresh layoffs last week. 各纺织公司上周宣布再次裁员两千人。
• Stock prices broke when the firm suddenly announced layoffs. 当公司突然宣布裁员时，股票价格便大跌

6 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

7 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。