美国国家公共电台 NPR--Under threat from China, Taiwan monitors the Chinese Communist Party's Congress

Under threat from China, Taiwan monitors the Chinese Communist Party's Congress

Transcript¹

NPR's A Martínez speaks to Taiwan expert Shelley Rigger about the potential danger for the island — with China's Xi Jinping about to assume a third term in power.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

No one will be watching the Chinese Communist Party's Congress this week more closely than people in Taiwan. The island has lived with the threat of invasion by the People's Republic of China, or PRC, for decades. And China's leader, Xi Jinping, didn't rule out military intervention² in Taiwan at the opening of the Congress. Beijing is offering a one country, two systems policy to Taiwan, something Taiwan rejects, with the leadership in Taipei keen to bolster³ the island's defenses. So with Xi poised⁵ for a third term as China's leader, I asked Shelley Rigger, a professor of East Asian studies at Davidson College and an expert on relations between the U.S., China and Taiwan, if there are any signs that China is preparing for war.

SHELLEY RIGGER: The PRC is always preparing in the sense that they are always trying to improve the quality and capability⁶ of their military. But we don't have any signs that they are actually getting ready for a full deployment⁷ of military resources to, you know, sort of ultimately resolve the tension between the two sides.

MART?NEZ: All right, well, that's good news. But I'm wondering, could China afford a war, given the level of trade with Taiwan and China's own economic problems during this pandemic?

RIGGER: Yeah, I think that's one of the reasons why I'm relatively⁸ comfortable at this moment that the PRC is not going to pursue a military option in the next few years because not only are the costs really high, just the cost of a war, but also the economic costs to the PRC are extremely high. Even if they got what they wanted - they achieve their goals - they would certainly experience enormous economic costs, both in terms of the loss of opportunities with Taiwan - which is the major investor⁹ and a leading trade partner for mainland China - and also in terms of the rest of the world, where China would certainly suffer significant economic sanctions, at least in the near term.

MART?NEZ: When it comes to one country, two systems rule, the way it is with Hong Kong, why is that so problematic for Taipei?

RIGGER: The idea that Taiwan would be able to continue its own political, social and economic systems into the future under a single flag with mainland China is something that I think a lot of Taiwanese just have a really hard time believing. They don't think that it is Beijing's goal to kind of symbolically¹¹ unify¹² but not actually seek to control Taiwan. And if you look at how things have gone in Hong Kong, I think there's evidence to suggest that from China's point of view, what they really want is control, not that kind of symbolic¹⁰ unification.

MART?NEZ: What other ways, other than military options, does Xi have to exert pressure on Taipei?

RIGGER: Lots of ways, right? So there's lots of what we call grey zone tactics. Some of them are more on the military side - so making it hard for people to move around, you know, coming into Taiwan's air defense⁴ identification zone so that the Taiwanese military is on higher alert. But then also cyber measures - there's also a huge amount of disinformation and misinformation sponsored by Beijing that's designed to destabilize Taiwan's domestic politics. And then there are also economic things that Beijing has done in the past. The problem is that all of those options tend just to make Taiwanese people more convinced than ever that they don't want to be under the Beijing government.

MART?NEZ: How do you think the U.S. fits in here? I know Taiwan produces over 90% of the world's advanced semiconductors¹³. That's really critical to all kinds of technology. Given that dependency, how critical is it for the U.S. to maintain stability in the region?

RIGGER: Well, I think it's really critical for the U.S. to maintain stability for many reasons. But I also think the U.S. is actually right now the primary target of Beijing's messaging. So in his speech to the 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping alluded¹⁴ to the fact that it is what he calls external forces who are really driving most of the tension in the Taiwan Strait. And here he means the U.S. So I think U.S. policymakers need to be really thoughtful about how they can unwind this tension in a way that doesn't undermine U.S. substantive¹⁵ support for Taiwan but that also doesn't create unnecessary tension that is not helpful to Taiwan or to the U.S. in the Taiwan Strait.

MART?NEZ: That's Shelley Rigger, professor of East Asian studies at Davidson College. Professor, thanks.

RIGGER: You're very welcome. My pleasure.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

3 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

4 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

5 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

6 capability   

n.能力；才能；(pl)可发展的能力或特性等

参考例句：

• She has the capability to become a very fine actress.她有潜力成为杰出演员。
• Organizing a whole department is beyond his capability.组织整个部门是他能力以外的事。

7 deployment   

n. 部署,展开

参考例句：

• He has inquired out the deployment of the enemy troops. 他已查出敌军的兵力部署情况。
• Quality function deployment (QFD) is a widely used customer-driven quality, design and manufacturing management tool. 质量功能展开(quality function deployment,QFD)是一个广泛应用的顾客需求驱动的设计、制造和质量管理工具。

8 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

9 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

10 symbolic   

adj.象征性的，符号的，象征主义的

参考例句：

• It is symbolic of the fighting spirit of modern womanhood.它象征着现代妇女的战斗精神。
• The Christian ceremony of baptism is a symbolic act.基督教的洗礼仪式是一种象征性的做法。

11 symbolically   

ad.象征地，象征性地

参考例句：

• By wearing the ring on the third finger of the left hand, a married couple symbolically declares their eternal love for each other. 将婚戒戴在左手的第三只手指上，意味着夫妻双方象征性地宣告他们的爱情天长地久，他们定能白头偕老。
• Symbolically, he coughed to clear his throat. 周经理象征地咳一声无谓的嗽，清清嗓子。

12 unify   

vt.使联合，统一；使相同，使一致

参考例句：

• How can we unify such scattered islands into a nation?我们怎么才能把如此分散的岛屿统一成一个国家呢？
• It is difficult to imagine how the North and South could ever agree on a formula to unify the divided peninsula.很难想象南北双方在统一半岛的方案上究竟怎样才能达成一致。

13 semiconductors   

n.半导体( semiconductor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Crystals may be insulators, semiconductors, or conductors. 晶体可以是绝缘体，半导体，或导体。 来自辞典例句
• Semiconductors containing such impurities are called p-type semiconductors. 含有这类杂质的半导体叫做P型半导体。 来自辞典例句

14 alluded   

提及，暗指( allude的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• In your remarks you alluded to a certain sinister design. 在你的谈话中，你提到了某个阴谋。
• She also alluded to her rival's past marital troubles. 她还影射了对手过去的婚姻问题。

15 substantive   

adj.表示实在的；本质的、实质性的；独立的；n.实词，实名词；独立存在的实体

参考例句：

• They plan to meet again in Rome very soon to begin substantive negotiations.他们计划不久在罗马再次会晤以开始实质性的谈判。
• A president needs substantive advice,but he also requires emotional succor. 一个总统需要实质性的建议，但也需要感情上的支持。