美国国家公共电台 NPR--In Ukraine, trend lines point to escalation, not an endgame

In Ukraine, trend lines point to escalation¹, not an endgame

Transcript²

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, many predicted a short war. Eight months on, each new twist points toward escalation and the notion this conflict still has a long way to go.

"The Ukrainians are determined³ to take back all of Ukraine. Now, this is the real eye opener for me," said retired⁴ U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus. He said the ongoing⁵ offensive has Ukrainians thinking they might be able to drive out Russian troops altogether.

Until recently, this was seen as overly ambitious, or just plain unrealistic. But Ukrainians, he adds, are in no mood to compromise.

"Even if President (Volodymyr) Zelenskyy reached some conclusion that maybe we should, to stop the punishment, we should negotiate. I don't think he can do that anymore because of the conviction of the Ukrainian people."

Petraeus spoke⁶ at an annual conference in Sea Island, Ga., run by The Cipher⁷ Brief, which brings together members of the national security community — current and former — to stand back and look at the big picture on global security.

A year ago, this conference focused on China. No one was talking about Russia invading Ukraine. But this time the theme was the war in Ukraine — where it's headed, and how it might end.

A top Ukrainian official, Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff to President Zelenskyy, told the conference the conflict needs to end with a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield.

"It has been repeated many times that Russia must not win the war. It is time to edit the phrase. Ukraine must win the war," said Yermack. He spoke via teleconference from Ukraine's capital Kyiv on a day when Russian airstrikes pounded the city.

"Their goal is to entail⁸ humanitarian⁹ catastrophe¹⁰ in Ukrainian towns and cities," said Yermak. "They want to make living conditions too harsh to survive this winter. They want to provoke another wave of emigration and depopulate Ukraine."

There's periodic talk about the possibility of finding or creating an "off-ramp" for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The capital of Ukraine reels from second Russian attack this month 

THE PICTURE SHOW

The capital of Ukraine reels from second Russian attack this month

But Paul Kolbe, a former CIA officer who runs the Intelligence Project at Harvard's Kennedy School, says the Russian leader is not looking for a way out of the conflict. In fact, he says, just the opposite.

"Putin's muscle memory when he runs into an obstacle is to escalate," said Kolbe. "There's a lot of tricks he can still pull out to try to undermine morale¹¹ in Ukraine and in the West."

Over the past 10 days, Russia has effectively launched a new front with long-range missile and drone strikes directed at civilian¹³ targets in the capital Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.

Putin is also calling up 300,000 more troops, and he annexed¹⁴ a swathe of Ukrainian territory in the south and the east, claiming it's now part of Russia forever.

This annexation¹⁵ is a huge deal. Putin is effectively betting his presidency¹⁶ on staying in Ukraine, says Dmitri Alperovitch, who runs the think tank Silverado Policy Accelerator.

"That is essentially¹⁷ a metaphorical¹⁸ burning of bridges," said Alperovitch. "What this means is that this war is likely to continue for many, many months, potentially many years, as long as he's in power and as long as he has the resources to continue fighting."

Alperovitch says the likelihood of Putin using nuclear weapon is still low. But it can't be dismissed. He paints this possible scenario¹⁹: "If he does use it, I think he's going to do a demonstration²⁰ strike in a remote area, perhaps over the Black Sea, in the hopes that the West would somehow pressure Kyiv to come to the negotiations²¹."

Meanwhile, the fast approaching winter will likely slow the pace of the war, but is not expected to halt the fighting.

David Petraeus thinks the harsh weather favors the Ukrainians on the battlefield.

"The Ukrainians can knock on the door and be taken in and get warmed up and get a bowl of soup from their fellow citizens. And of course, they're welcomed as liberators, whereas the Russian occupiers, the Ukrainians are trying to kill them," he said.

However, Ukraine's civilians²² remain extremely vulnerable in the face of Russian air strikes.

Dmitri Alperovitch calls this "the blackmail²³ of energy by cutting off gas supplies, by shutting off electricity, by bombing electric substations all over Ukraine."

Putin's strategy will inflict²⁴ pain, he said. But he added, "when your kids are dying, you're going to keep fighting even if you don't have heat, even if your economy of your country is in dire¹² straits. And I think he's miscalculated on this front."

At the Georgia conference, in a ballroom²⁵ filled with experienced national security types, no one suggested the war was near an end.

"Most wars end with some sort of negotiated solution, whether that comes out of stalemate or defeat, but I don't see any prospects²⁶ of talks in the near term," said Paul Kolbe, the former CIA official.

This war began with a Russian invasion in 2014, he noted²⁷, and is now as intense as it's ever been.

1 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

4 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

5 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

6 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

7 cipher   

n.零；无影响力的人；密码

参考例句：

• All important plans were sent to the police in cipher.所有重要计划均以密码送往警方。
• He's a mere cipher in the company.他在公司里是个无足轻重的小人物。

8 entail   

vt.使承担，使成为必要，需要

参考例句：

• Such a decision would entail a huge political risk.这样的决定势必带来巨大的政治风险。
• This job would entail your learning how to use a computer.这工作将需要你学会怎样用计算机。

9 humanitarian   

n.人道主义者，博爱者，基督凡人论者

参考例句：

• She has many humanitarian interests and contributes a lot to them.她拥有很多慈善事业，并作了很大的贡献。
• The British government has now suspended humanitarian aid to the area.英国政府现已暂停对这一地区的人道主义援助。

10 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。

11 morale   

n.道德准则，士气，斗志

参考例句：

• The morale of the enemy troops is sinking lower every day.敌军的士气日益低落。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

12 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

13 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

14 annexed   

[法] 附加的，附属的

参考例句：

• Germany annexed Austria in 1938. 1938年德国吞并了奥地利。
• The outlying villages were formally annexed by the town last year. 那些偏远的村庄于去年正式被并入该镇。

15 annexation   

n.吞并，合并

参考例句：

• He mentioned the Japanese annexation of Korea in 1910 .他提及1910年日本对朝鲜的吞并。
• I regard the question of annexation as belonging exclusively to the United States and Texas.我认为合并的问题，完全属于德克萨斯和美国之间的事。

16 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

17 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

18 metaphorical   

a.隐喻的，比喻的

参考例句：

• Here, then, we have a metaphorical substitution on a metonymic axis. 这样，我们在换喻（者翻译为转喻，一种以部分代替整体的修辞方法）上就有了一个隐喻的替代。
• So, in a metaphorical sense, entropy is arrow of time. 所以说，我们可以这样作个比喻：熵像是时间之矢。

19 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

20 demonstration   

n.表明，示范，论证，示威

参考例句：

• His new book is a demonstration of his patriotism.他写的新书是他的爱国精神的证明。
• He gave a demonstration of the new technique then and there.他当场表演了这种新的操作方法。

21 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

22 civilians   

平民，百姓( civilian的名词复数 )； 老百姓

参考例句：

• the bloody massacre of innocent civilians 对无辜平民的血腥屠杀
• At least 300 civilians are unaccounted for after the bombing raids. 遭轰炸袭击之后，至少有300名平民下落不明。

23 blackmail   

n.讹诈，敲诈，勒索，胁迫，恫吓

参考例句：

• She demanded ＄1000 blackmail from him.她向他敲诈了1000美元。
• The journalist used blackmail to make the lawyer give him the documents.记者讹诈那名律师交给他文件。

24 inflict   

vt.(on)把…强加给，使遭受，使承担

参考例句：

• Don't inflict your ideas on me.不要把你的想法强加于我。
• Don't inflict damage on any person.不要伤害任何人。

25 ballroom   

n.舞厅

参考例句：

• The boss of the ballroom excused them the fee.舞厅老板给他们免费。
• I go ballroom dancing twice a week.我一个星期跳两次交际舞。

26 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

27 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。