美国国家公共电台 NPR--What the wild journey of a $100,000 watch can teach us about global markets

What the wild journey of a $100,000 watch can teach us about global markets

Transcript¹

The Swiss take their watches very seriously. Strolling around Geneva, Switzerland's watch-making capital, there are Rolex, Patek Phillippe, and Tag Heuer stores on nearly every block, usually with a little gathering² of people standing³ behind velvet⁴ ropes waiting to get in... like a club.

A very expensive club. These watches (or time pieces, as everyone in the industry calls them) traditionally appealed to older, wealthy collectors--connoisseur types who were willing to drop thousands of dollars on a watch.

This was a small, sleepy, very select industry.

But a couple of years ago, luxury watches got swept up in a strange combination of global events and market fads⁵ that took it on a wild ride. Fueling that wild ride — something one would probably never associate with an artisanal industry dating back more than four centuries: cryptocurrency. More on that later.

In the small Geneva-based workshop of luxury watch brand Maximilian Büsser & Friends or MB&F, a row of watchmakers is hunched⁷ over wooden desks, squinting⁸ through black jeweler's loupes at tiny networks of gears and springs.

Henri Porteboeuf, 36, is using a tiny vise to press yellow jewels the size of poppy seeds into a metal strip that will decorate a watch face. He says to do this kind of intricate work requires total focus.

"It's the flow," he explains. "I think that's how you say it in English. I like the flow."

To help get into the flow, Porteboeuf listens to jazz on his iPhone. Other than that, though, his job doesn't look much different than it would have more than 400 years ago, when the Swiss watch industry started.

Today he's working on a special watch, the Bulldog.

Henri Porteboeuf, 36, watchmaker at MB&F, likes to listen to music while he works.

The Bulldog is a wild looking watch–a colleague of mine said it looks a little like the Millennium⁹ Falcon¹⁰. The face is encased in a glass bubble, it has spinning domes¹¹ that glow in the dark, little metal "legs," and even a tiny set of metal jaws¹² that opens and closes.

However, there's nothing tiny about the bite the Bulldog will take out of your wallet. It retails¹⁴ for $100,000. It's one of the company's best-sellers and it almost never saw the light of day.

Is this good timing¹⁵?

Charris Yadigaroglou is head of marketing¹⁶ at MB&F. He says the Bulldog had been in development for years, and had long been set to launch in March 2020. Just as they were getting ready to release the watch, lockdown started shutting cities down all across the world.

"We debated endlessly whether we should launch it or not," said Yadigaroglou. "It's like, the world was collapsing¹⁷ and are we going to launch a crazy watch called the Bulldog that costs $100,000? Right now? Is this good timing?"

As it turns out, they couldn't have timed it better. The Bulldog sold out almost immediately. Even as COVID was shutting the world down, the luxury watch industry was having a renaissance¹⁸.

When the market really took off

For decades, luxury watches had been a shrinking market mostly catering¹⁹ to older, wealthy collectors. But in the early part of the pandemic, even as millions of people were losing their jobs, another group was coming into enormous wealth: cryptocurrency investors²⁰.

"They started to buy watches and that's when the market really took off," explained Oliver Müller, an analyst²¹ with LuxeConsult, who advises banks and collectors on luxury watches.

"I can tell you, never ever in the 25 years I have been in the watch industry, we have never experienced experienced such strong growth," said Müller. This is any industry's dream: an influx²² of young, wealthy customers sparking a global craze for your product.

Demand took off... and almost immediately hit a ceiling.

Watchmaking is slow

Here's the thing about luxury watchmaking: It's slow. Each watch has hundreds of parts, many sourced from different, independent makers⁶. Each part is meticulously²³ checked for quality by a special team before it goes to the watchmaker to be assembled by hand.

Demand for luxury watches was skyrocketing during the pandemic, but supply couldn't rise to meet it. The little artisanal industry was overwhelmed and couldn't meet the moment.

This seemed tragic²⁴: the luxury watch industry had this amazing growth opportunity but couldn't grab it because the very thing that made the watches valuable also made them difficult to mass produce.

12 year waiting lists

Even the big players like Rolex and Patek Phillippe started selling out of everything. A lot of the most desirable, classic watches (known as "Grail watches"... as in The Holy Grail) sold out many times over. "We had waiting lists of 5, 6, 7, 12 years," said Müller.

Sponsor Message

Waiting lists like that will often discourage would-be buyers. But in the case of luxury watches, the waiting lists drove them into a frenzy²⁵. "Rich people, if you tell them they can't get something, they're ready to pay any price to get it," said Müller.

The price goes up and up

When a lot of people want to spend a lot of money, you can bet the market finds a way to oblige.

"People get frustrated," said Müller. "They revert²⁶ to a secondary market where they think they might buy, easily and quickly, the watch of their dreams and..the price goes up and up."

An industry of watch-flippers was born. Speculators were snapping up watches as fast as they could and reselling them for mind-blowing mark-ups.

One of the most striking examples of this was a watch that Patek Philippe made in collaboration²⁷ with Tiffany. It retailed²⁸ for around $50,000 and sold at auction²⁹ shortly after its release for $6.5 million. Jay-Z was spotted³⁰ wearing one.

Luxury watches were no longer a niche³¹ product for ultra rich collectors. They were a cultural force and a lucrative³² investment.

For the Swiss watch industry, this was a bittersweet moment. Its product was suddenly wildly popular and highly valued, but watchmakers were also leaving billions of dollars on the table.

A lot of the money that could have been going to Swiss watch companies was going to speculators and middlemen. A demand increase like this will come along once a century, if you're lucky. It arrived! And the Swiss watch industry could take full advantage.

Or so it seemed...

The crypto crash...

And then crypto crashed, the markets crashed and the demand for luxury watches cratered³³ overnight.

But here's where things get truly interesting. The same thing that had held the watch industry back from expanding to meet the explosive new demand probably saved it.

If Swiss watchmakers had been able to ramp³⁴ up production to meet the booming new crypto-fueled demand the market would have been flooded with luxury watches with no buyers when that demand suddenly vanished.

Instead, when the crypto buyers vanished the waiting lists just got shorter, said Müller.

"Even if some watches lost 30- 40% of their peak value, they are still at a very high valuation: three, four times the normal retail¹³ price," he said. "Watches have demonstrated that they are quite resilient."

Swiss watch exports hit a record $22 billion last year (up more than 30% from before the pandemic) and they are on track to set another record this year.

Müller does admit he's worried what will happen if there's a global recession. Watch exports are already down sharply to the all-important Chinese market and exports to Russia have almost stopped entirely³⁵ since the war with Ukraine began.

Still, Müller says a new generation of people have discovered watches and he's hopeful that will pick up some of the shortfall.

At MB&F there's still a 6-to-18 month wait for the $100,000 Bulldog watch. But watchmaker Henri Porteboeuf is not rushing. He says finishing a watch is a very special moment. "It's like having a baby," he laughed. "Because the movement is like a heart beating. For me, it's like that."

That might sound overly sentimental³⁶, but the sentimentality and human-ness of watches is why MB&F's Charris Yadigaroglou thinks they have such a powerful appeal right now and why (I had to ask) people pay such astronomical³⁷ amounts of money for something that does what all of our phones are already doing.

"The fact it tells time is not essential at all," said Yadigaroglou. "It's an excuse. The time on your iPhone is infinitely³⁸ more precise. With a mechanical watch there are gears moving, it's analog³⁹. And this is something which I feel a human being needs to compensate⁴⁰ all this super high tech stuff we have around us."

Charris Yadigaroglou shows off the vault⁴¹ where MB&F keeps the various parts that go into its different watches. Some models have hundreds of discrete⁴² parts.

The last couple of years did not leave the company, or the industry, unchanged. MB&F is increasing production a bit to take advantage of the new demand. They will go from making 300 watches a year to about 350.

And prices do appear to be coming down. Recent reports say a lot of the opportunistic watch flippers are now unloading their supplies. That has pushed prices down as much as 20% for some of the most expensive models.

This is not to say luxury watches are approaching affordability⁴³.

I noticed as I was touring MB&F that nobody I met was wearing a watch. When I asked about this, the whole room erupted in laughter and everyone started talking over each other in French and English.

I finally realized people were saying they could never hope to buy the watches they spend all of this time and love creating, crafting, perfecting and selling.

"We cannot afford our own watches, honestly," laughed Yadigaroglou. "No, seriously. We're talking about watches that start at $50,000. We love the watches, but there's no way any of us could own them."

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

3 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

4 velvet   

n.丝绒，天鹅绒；adj.丝绒制的，柔软的

参考例句：

• This material feels like velvet.这料子摸起来像丝绒。
• The new settlers wore the finest silk and velvet clothing.新来的移民穿着最华丽的丝绸和天鹅绒衣服。

5 fads   

n.一时的流行，一时的风尚( fad的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• It was one of the many fads that sweep through mathematics regularly. 它是常见的贯穿在数学中的许多流行一时的风尚之一。 来自辞典例句
• Lady Busshe is nothing without her flights, fads, and fancies. 除浮躁、时髦和幻想外，巴歇夫人一无所有。 来自辞典例句

6 makers   

n.制造者，制造商（maker的复数形式）

参考例句：

• The makers of the product assured us that there had been no sacrifice of quality. 这一产品的制造商向我们保证说他们没有牺牲质量。
• The makers are about to launch out a new product. 制造商们马上要生产一种新产品。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 hunched   

（常指因寒冷、生病或愁苦）耸肩弓身的，伏首前倾的

参考例句：

• He sat with his shoulders hunched up. 他耸起双肩坐着。
• Stephen hunched down to light a cigarette. 斯蒂芬弓着身子点燃一支烟。

8 squinting   

斜视( squint的现在分词 )； 眯着眼睛； 瞟； 从小孔或缝隙里看

参考例句：

• "More company," he said, squinting in the sun. "那边来人了，"他在阳光中眨巴着眼睛说。
• Squinting against the morning sun, Faulcon examined the boy carefully. 对着早晨的太阳斜起眼睛，富尔康仔细地打量着那个年轻人。

9 millennium   

n.一千年，千禧年；太平盛世

参考例句：

• The whole world was counting down to the new millennium.全世界都在倒计时迎接新千年的到来。
• We waited as the clock ticked away the last few seconds of the old millennium.我们静候着时钟滴答走过千年的最后几秒钟。

10 falcon   

n.隼，猎鹰

参考例句：

• The falcon was twice his size with pouted feathers.鹰张开羽毛比两只鹰还大。
• The boys went hunting with their falcon.男孩子们带着猎鹰出去打猎了。

11 domes   

n.圆屋顶( dome的名词复数 )；像圆屋顶一样的东西；圆顶体育场

参考例句：

• The domes are circular or ovoid in cross-section. 穹丘的横断面为圆形或卵圆形。 来自辞典例句
• Parks. The facilities highlighted in text include sport complexes and fabric domes. 本书重点讲的设施包括运动场所和顶棚式结构。 来自互联网

12 jaws   

n.口部；嘴

参考例句：

• The antelope could not escape the crocodile's gaping jaws. 那只羚羊无法从鱷鱼张开的大口中逃脱。
• The scored jaws of a vise help it bite the work. 台钳上有刻痕的虎钳牙帮助它紧咬住工件。

13 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

14 retails   

n.零售( retail的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• This book retails at 10 dollars overseas. 这本书的海外零售价是十美元。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• This radio retails for ＄ 14.95. 这种收音机的零售价是14美元95美分。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

15 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

16 marketing   

n.行销，在市场的买卖，买东西

参考例句：

• They are developing marketing network.他们正在发展销售网络。
• He often goes marketing.他经常去市场做生意。

17 collapsing   

压扁[平]，毁坏，断裂

参考例句：

• Rescuers used props to stop the roof of the tunnel collapsing. 救援人员用支柱防止隧道顶塌陷。
• The rocks were folded by collapsing into the center of the trough. 岩石由于坍陷进入凹槽的中心而发生褶皱。

18 renaissance   

n.复活，复兴，文艺复兴

参考例句：

• The Renaissance was an epoch of unparalleled cultural achievement.文艺复兴是一个文化上取得空前成就的时代。
• The theme of the conference is renaissance Europe.大会的主题是文艺复兴时期的欧洲。

19 catering   

n. 给养

参考例句：

• Most of our work now involves catering for weddings. 我们现在的工作多半是承办婚宴。
• Who did the catering for your son's wedding? 你儿子的婚宴是由谁承办的？

20 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

21 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

22 influx   

n.流入，注入

参考例句：

• The country simply cannot absorb this influx of refugees.这个国家实在不能接纳这么多涌入的难民。
• Textile workers favoured protection because they feared an influx of cheap cloth.纺织工人拥护贸易保护措施，因为他们担心涌入廉价纺织品。

23 meticulously   

adv.过细地，异常细致地；无微不至；精心

参考例句：

• The hammer's silvery head was etched with holy runs and its haft was meticulously wrapped in blue leather. 锤子头是纯银制成的，雕刻着神圣符文，而握柄则被精心地包裹在蓝色的皮革中。 来自辞典例句
• She is always meticulously accurate in punctuation and spelling. 她的标点和拼写总是非常精确。 来自辞典例句

24 tragic   

adj.悲剧的，悲剧性的，悲惨的

参考例句：

• The effect of the pollution on the beaches is absolutely tragic.污染海滩后果可悲。
• Charles was a man doomed to tragic issues.查理是个注定不得善终的人。

25 frenzy   

n.疯狂，狂热，极度的激动

参考例句：

• He was able to work the young students up into a frenzy.他能激起青年学生的狂热。
• They were singing in a frenzy of joy.他们欣喜若狂地高声歌唱。

26 revert   

v.恢复，复归，回到

参考例句：

• Let us revert to the earlier part of the chapter.让我们回到本章的前面部分。
• Shall we revert to the matter we talked about yesterday?我们接着昨天谈过的问题谈，好吗？

27 collaboration   

n.合作，协作；勾结

参考例句：

• The two companies are working in close collaboration each other.这两家公司密切合作。
• He was shot for collaboration with the enemy.他因通敌而被枪毙了。

28 retailed   

vt.零售（retail的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• She retailed the neighbours' activities with relish. 她饶有兴趣地对邻居们的活动说三道四。
• The industrial secrets were retailed to a rival concern. 工业秘密被泄露给一家对立的公司。 来自《简明英汉词典》

29 auction   

n.拍卖；拍卖会；vt.拍卖

参考例句：

• They've put the contents of their house up for auction.他们把房子里的东西全都拿去拍卖了。
• They bought a new minibus with the proceeds from the auction.他们用拍卖得来的钱买了一辆新面包车。

30 spotted   

adj.有斑点的，斑纹的，弄污了的

参考例句：

• The milkman selected the spotted cows,from among a herd of two hundred.牛奶商从一群200头牛中选出有斑点的牛。
• Sam's shop stocks short spotted socks.山姆的商店屯积了有斑点的短袜。

31 niche   

n.壁龛；合适的职务(环境、位置等)

参考例句：

• Madeleine placed it carefully in the rocky niche. 玛德琳小心翼翼地把它放在岩石壁龛里。
• The really talented among women would always make their own niche.妇女中真正有才能的人总是各得其所。

32 lucrative   

adj.赚钱的，可获利的

参考例句：

• He decided to turn his hobby into a lucrative sideline.他决定把自己的爱好变成赚钱的副业。
• It was not a lucrative profession.那是一个没有多少油水的职业。

33 cratered   

adj.有坑洞的，多坑的v.火山口( crater的过去分词 )；弹坑等

参考例句：

• The surface cratered with the constant dropping of water. 表面因经常滴水而成坑。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• Artillery cratered the roads. 炮击后大路布满了弹坑。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

34 ramp   

n.暴怒，斜坡，坡道；vi.作恐吓姿势，暴怒，加速；vt.加速

参考例句：

• That driver drove the car up the ramp.那司机将车开上了斜坡。
• The factory don't have that capacity to ramp up.这家工厂没有能力加速生产。

35 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

36 sentimental   

adj.多愁善感的，感伤的

参考例句：

• She's a sentimental woman who believes marriage comes by destiny.她是多愁善感的人，她相信姻缘命中注定。
• We were deeply touched by the sentimental movie.我们深深被那感伤的电影所感动。

37 astronomical   

adj.天文学的，（数字）极大的

参考例句：

• He was an expert on ancient Chinese astronomical literature.他是研究中国古代天文学文献的专家。
• Houses in the village are selling for astronomical prices.乡村的房价正在飙升。

38 infinitely   

adv.无限地，无穷地

参考例句：

• There is an infinitely bright future ahead of us.我们有无限光明的前途。
• The universe is infinitely large.宇宙是无限大的。

39 analog   

n.类似物，模拟

参考例句：

• The analog signal contains high-frequency video information,which helps make up the picture.模拟信号包括有助于构成图像的高频视频信息。
• The analog computer measures continuously,without proceeding step by step.模拟计算机不是一步一步地进行，而是连续地进行量度。

40 compensate   

vt.补偿，赔偿；酬报 vi.弥补；补偿；抵消

参考例句：

• She used her good looks to compensate her lack of intelligence. 她利用她漂亮的外表来弥补智力的不足。
• Nothing can compensate for the loss of one's health. 一个人失去了键康是不可弥补的。

41 vault   

n.拱形圆顶，地窖，地下室

参考例句：

• The vault of this cathedral is very high.这座天主教堂的拱顶非常高。
• The old patrician was buried in the family vault.这位老贵族埋在家族的墓地里。

42 discrete   

adj.个别的，分离的，不连续的

参考例句：

• The picture consists of a lot of discrete spots of colour.这幅画由许多不相连的色点组成。
• Most staple fibers are discrete,individual entities.大多数短纤维是不联系的单独实体。

43 affordability   

可购性

参考例句：

• Performance-Based Logistics Affordability: Can We Afford Categorical Conversion to Performance-Based Acquisition? 基于性能的后期的可承受性：能否担负得起向基于性能的采办的无条件的转变？
• There would be no crisis of affordability, as't for food or clothing. 就想食物与服装一样，因为供给没有危机。