美国国家公共电台 NPR--A new U.K. leader could ease political chaos, but economic fixes will be harder

A new U.K. leader could ease political chaos¹, but economic fixes will be harder

Transcript²

NPR's Leila Fadel talks to Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics about what a new U.K. prime minister may mean for Britain's economy and beyond.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

While a new prime minister in the U.K. could ease political instability, economic upheaval³ will be harder to calm. Outgoing Prime Minister Liz Truss' financial policy spooked the markets. And persistent⁴ inflation is hurting household budgets. For insight into what's next, we're joined now by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Good morning, Adam. Thanks for being on the program.

ADAM POSEN: Good morning, Leila. Thank you.

FADEL: OK. So what does the next prime minister have to do to try to protect Britain from a deep recession?

POSEN: There's not much they can do right now to protect them from a deep recession. But you can do things to protect households from the worst of it. And you can do things to protect the pound and the longer-term course of the British economy. What Truss and the previous chancellor⁵, Kwarteng, got so wrong is that it matters what you spend money on. And it matters how you determine (laughter) the amount spent. And they violated norms on both of those. If the new prime minister and the current new chancellor, Mr. Hunt, come in and say, here's a path where we are going to spend on protecting low-income households but not spend willy-nilly, here's a path where we are going to raise some taxes, things should stabilize⁶.

FADEL: So is Britain's former finance minister, Rishi Sunak, the right pick to help calm some of this economic turbulence⁷ in the U.K.?

POSEN: I think it's less about personalities⁸...

FADEL: Right.

POSEN: ...Than about behavior. He is clearly committed to the institutions, which is - they have something called the Office of Budget Responsibility, which is analogous⁹ to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. Liz Truss tried to end run that. He's going to have them review the package. He's committed to the independence of the Bank of England, their Federal Reserve, and letting them raise rates if they see it necessary. He's committed to actually saying how they're going to supposedly pay for things. Finance ministers, just as in the U.S., never fully¹⁰ pay for things, but some notion of paying for it and having to cost it out. So it's about how he respects the institutions, as well as just showing some limitation.

FADEL: So more respect for the expertise¹¹ around this. How much of this economic turmoil¹² was about Truss' economic policies? And how much of it is really the legacy¹³ of Brexit? I mean, the U.K. had one of the strongest economies in Europe before leaving the European Union.

POSEN: Yeah. I am - I think Brexit was a major factor in two ways, Leila. First is that Brexit divided the society, divided the politics...

FADEL: Yeah.

POSEN: ...And let extremists in the British Conservative Party essentially¹⁴ run the show. And that's part of when markets react badly. It's like with Italy or Argentina in the past. If you have unstable¹⁵ governments, people don't believe that you're going to stick to whatever fiscal¹⁶ policy you declare. And Brexit contributed to that. But also, economically, Brexit, by cutting off the U.K. from its largest trading partner - overwhelmingly largest trading partner, Europe, making things more expensive for people in the U.K., making shortages of certain kinds of workers and goods and services in the U.K., made inflation worse, made income worse. So it took what was a general, global problem and made it worse for the U.K.

FADEL: You know, so much about what you're describing sounds familiar - a divided public, concern about people ignoring expertise. And the U.S. is about to have midterms, which could shift power in Congress to Republicans. Is there something that conservatives in the U.S. could learn from the mistakes of conservatives in the U.K.?

POSEN: I think they should, Leila. I think it's a fair thing. It's less about expertise and more about institutions, that you don't just trivially throw aside basic, common-sense norms just for the sake of a quick political point. We hear House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy talking about playing games with the debt ceiling, which, in a time where we've spent trillions of dollars in the last few years to deal with COVID and to deal with energy, that's irresponsible.

FADEL: Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Thank you so much.

POSEN: Thank you for having me.

1 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 upheaval   

n.胀起，(地壳)的隆起；剧变，动乱

参考例句：

• It was faced with the greatest social upheaval since World War Ⅱ.它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。
• The country has been thrown into an upheaval.这个国家已经陷入动乱之中。

4 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

5 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

6 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

7 turbulence   

n.喧嚣，狂暴，骚乱，湍流

参考例句：

• The turbulence caused the plane to turn over.空气的激流导致飞机翻转。
• The world advances amidst turbulence.世界在动荡中前进。

8 personalities   

n. 诽谤，（对某人容貌、性格等所进行的）人身攻击； 人身攻击；人格, 个性, 名人( personality的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• There seemed to be a degree of personalities in her remarks.她话里有些人身攻击的成分。
• Personalities are not in good taste in general conversation.在一般的谈话中诽谤他人是不高尚的。

9 analogous   

adj.相似的；类似的

参考例句：

• The two situations are roughly analogous.两种情況大致相似。
• The company is in a position closely analogous to that of its main rival.该公司与主要竞争对手的处境极为相似。

10 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

11 expertise   

n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长

参考例句：

• We were amazed at his expertise on the ski slopes.他斜坡滑雪的技能使我们赞叹不已。
• You really have the technical expertise in a new breakthrough.让你真正在专业技术上有一个全新的突破。

12 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

13 legacy   

n.遗产，遗赠；先人(或过去)留下的东西

参考例句：

• They are the most precious cultural legacy our forefathers left.它们是我们祖先留下来的最宝贵的文化遗产。
• He thinks the legacy is a gift from the Gods.他认为这笔遗产是天赐之物。

14 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

15 unstable   

adj.不稳定的，易变的

参考例句：

• This bookcase is too unstable to hold so many books.这书橱很不结实，装不了这么多书。
• The patient's condition was unstable.那患者的病情不稳定。

16 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。