美国国家公共电台 NPR--Multiple issues cast clouds over China, the world's second biggest economy

Multiple issues cast clouds over China, the world's second biggest economy

Transcript¹

Chinese stocks slumped² after last week's Communist Party congress reinforced leader Xi Jinping's dominance. But investment sentiment already had been weak for months.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Chinese leader Xi Jinping orchestrated exactly the outcome he intended at last week's Communist Party Congress. He was confirmed for a third term in office. Yet, as we've been reporting, investors⁴ were unimpressed, and Chinese stocks fell. NPR's John Ruwitch has been asking what unsettles people in business.

JOHN RUWITCH, BYLINE⁵: For clues about why investor³ sentiment has soured in China, look no further than the central city of Wuhan, where the COVID-19 pandemic got its start nearly three years ago.

RONG REBALA: (Through interpreter) The streets are really empty today. The situation in Wuhan is getting worse.

RUWITCH: Rong Rebala runs a company that imports French wine and a wine bar. This week she's getting nervous, though. The city has been reporting a couple dozen COVID cases each day. And some parts of town are already sealed off thanks to the zero-COVID policy.

REBALA: (Through interpreter) The whole city may be locked down tomorrow or the day after. So I'm just doing the deliveries myself immediately, on the same day the orders come in.

RUWITCH: Lockdowns have been unrelenting in China, and they're taking a toll⁶ on businesses like Rebala's across the country. Her sales are already down 40- to 50% this year.

REBALA: (Through interpreter) My wine bar is closed already. I'm not allowed to open it. So if I can't do delivery, I'll have a big problem.

RUWITCH: Zero COVID is just one of many policies prompting investors and businesses to rethink their plans in China. There's also the crackdown on internet firms, a wobbly real estate market and a growing focus in policy pronouncements on equality that has put some of the country's wealthy on edge. All are seen as having one thing in common, according to Christopher Beddor, a political economy expert at the research firm Gavekal Dragonomics in Hong Kong. They're driven by Xi Jinping, now China's unrivaled leader.

CHRISTOPHER BEDDOR: Many of his core policies that he's promoted are just - they're clearly negative for markets. There's just no escaping that.

RUWITCH: The leadership lineup announced last weekend was seen to be short on people with economic reformist credentials⁷ and long on Xi loyalists.

BEDDOR: The outcome clearly, from a market perspective, meant just less scope for anything that opposes Xi's convictions on economic policy.

RUWITCH: But Chinese markets were falling, and investor sentiment was already wavering before the party congress. A survey published this week by the American Chamber⁸ of Commerce in Shanghai highlights some of the reasons.

Sean Stein is chairman of AmCham Shanghai.

SEAN STEIN: If we look at the level of optimism, it's the lowest level we have on record.

RUWITCH: Lockdowns and COVID policies are a big part of it, he says. There's also less transparency now and more regulatory hurdles⁹. On top of it all is the growing antagonism¹⁰ between the United States and China.

STEIN: I think as technological¹¹ competition, other aspects of economic competition between the United States and China continue to increase, it's going to become more difficult for many of our companies to operate and more costly¹² to comply.

RUWITCH: And that reality has been sinking in. Only 30% of the companies AmCham surveyed are increasing investment in China this year. One in six companies said they're considering moving some or all of their operations elsewhere.

Alicia Garcia-Herrero is chief economist¹³ for Asia Pacific at the French bank Natixis. She says she was kind of amused by the market reaction to the leadership lineup this week because, in her view, it almost doesn't matter which bureaucrats¹⁴ Xi Jinping surrounds himself with at this point.

ALICIA GARCIA-HERRERO: China's economy is decelerating rapidly. I mean, no Superman team - OK? - can stop this.

RUWITCH: She says that's because of structural¹⁵ problems - a shrinking and aging population, an oversupply¹⁶ of infrastructure¹⁷ and capacity, high debt and falling return on investment. And those things, she says, are like forces of gravity - hard to overcome.

John Ruwitch, NPR News, Shanghai.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 slumped   

大幅度下降，暴跌( slump的过去式和过去分词 )； 沉重或突然地落下[倒下]

参考例句：

• Sales have slumped this year. 今年销售量锐减。
• The driver was slumped exhausted over the wheel. 司机伏在方向盘上，疲惫得睡着了。

3 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

6 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

7 credentials   

n.证明，资格，证明书，证件

参考例句：

• He has long credentials of diplomatic service.他的外交工作资历很深。
• Both candidates for the job have excellent credentials.此项工作的两个求职者都非常符合资格。

8 chamber   

n.房间，寝室；会议厅；议院；会所

参考例句：

• For many,the dentist's surgery remains a torture chamber.对许多人来说，牙医的治疗室一直是间受刑室。
• The chamber was ablaze with light.会议厅里灯火辉煌。

9 hurdles   

n.障碍( hurdle的名词复数 )；跳栏；（供人或马跳跃的）栏架；跨栏赛

参考例句：

• In starting a new company, many hurdles must be crossed. 刚开办一个公司时，必须克服许多障碍。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• There are several hurdles to be got over in this project. 在这项工程中有一些困难要克服。 来自辞典例句

10 antagonism   

n.对抗，敌对，对立

参考例句：

• People did not feel a strong antagonism for established policy.人们没有对既定方针产生强烈反应。
• There is still much antagonism between trades unions and the oil companies.工会和石油公司之间仍然存在着相当大的敌意。

11 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

12 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

13 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

14 bureaucrats   

n.官僚( bureaucrat的名词复数 )；官僚主义；官僚主义者；官僚语言

参考例句：

• That is the fate of the bureaucrats, not the inspiration of statesmen. 那是官僚主义者的命运，而不是政治家的灵感。 来自辞典例句
• Big business and dozens of anonymous bureaucrats have as much power as Japan's top elected leaders. 大企业和许多不知名的官僚同日本选举出来的最高层领导者们的权力一样大。 来自辞典例句

15 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

16 oversupply   

n.供应过量；v.过度供给

参考例句：

• The market softened because of oversupply.市场因供过于求而疲软。
• Overexpansion of tea fields has led to oversupply.茶园过度扩张，使得市场上逐渐供过于求。

17 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。