美国国家公共电台 NPR--What to expect during the last week of primaries

What to expect during the last week of primaries

Transcript¹

As voters continue to head to the polls and mail in or drop off ballots² during early voting, the final week before Election Day gives a sense of the national headwinds in politics.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

A little more than a week from the end of voting in midterm elections and Democrats³ are fighting an uphill battle to retain control of Congress. Republicans need a net pickup⁴ of just five seats to take back the House. The race for the Senate is closer. But Republicans are growing more hopeful there, as well. NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro is here with us this morning. Domenico, historically, the president's party loses ground in that first midterm. Supreme⁵ Court's decision, though, this summer overturning Roe⁶ v. Wade⁷ seemed to swing things back toward Democrats. But how has that changed the past few weeks?

DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE⁸: Yeah. I mean, look; undoubtedly⁹, Dobbs - the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe was a political earthquake in these elections that sent Democratic enthusiasm way up. But, you know, partially¹⁰ what we're seeing here is kind of part of the natural ebb¹¹ and flow of an election cycle. You know, with about three weeks to go is when people start really paying attention. And the question, you know, is really going to be whether Democrats can keep that enthusiasm up to keep pace with Republicans. What we've seen in polling in many places is that it's not so much that Democrats are not gaining enthusiasm - they are as we get closer to crunch¹² time - but that Republicans really are pulling further ahead with their levels of enthusiasm.

And a big thing, you know, helping¹³ Republicans with that is that we've seen over the last few weeks a truckload of money dumped in by Republican outside groups to boost Republican candidates on the airwaves in states that have key Senate races. You know, for example, a group tied to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, the Senate Leadership Fund, has dropped more than $50 million in just a couple of weeks and overall spent almost a quarter-billion dollars to boost some struggling Trump-backed Republican candidates in places like Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio.

MART?NEZ: OK. Right now, the Senate is a 50-50 split, which means if Republicans take just one seat, they take control. What are the key races to watch?

MONTANARO: Well, the two Democratic targets are Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Republicans look to be in better shape in Wisconsin with Senator Ron Johnson, who's not very well-liked in the state. But he's running a pretty gritty campaign in what's a politically polarized state. So getting out your base is really important. Republicans are laser focused on Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. So we're talking about five races that really are what are expected to decide the Senate. And they're expected to be super close. Pennsylvania really is so important to Democrats' chances to holding the Senate because if the Democratic candidate there, Lieutenant¹⁴ Governor John Fetterman, is able to pull it out there against a celebrity¹⁵ TV doctor, Mehmet Oz, then even if Johnson holds on in Wisconsin, Republicans would have to win two of three of Georgia, Nevada and Arizona to take control.

Now, that's possible. But it's just a little bit harder if Pennsylvania is suddenly off the board. But no one I've talked to on either side is confident that they know what's going to happen here. And we really have to stress, you know, for our audience that it's very possible, if not likely, we won't know control of the Senate for days, if not weeks. I mean, not only are these elections expected to be close, but in Georgia, for example, it might not even be decided¹⁶ until December 6 because, you know, if no one gets above 50%, it will go to a runoff.

MART?NEZ: All right, different story in the House, though. Republicans need five seats to flip¹⁷ that. And it's widely expected to happen. But could we see another red wave like in 2010? That was President Obama's first midterm, when Republicans won 63 seats.

MONTANARO: Well, 63 seats is probably unlikely. First of all, after redistricting, the field is much narrower than it was then. Only about 60 seats are even in play now as compared to over a hundred back then. So what we're talking about here, possibly - the Cook Political Report, for example, does forecasting estimates of these races. And they're looking at about 12 to 25 seats for Republicans. And they've upped that projection¹⁸ in the past week or so. There are about seven races already where Republicans are already thought to be heavy favorites. So that would be enough to know on election night.

But we likely won't know the full height of any Republican wave if there is one for days or more because some of these races are expected to be super close across the country. You know, and in California, for example, on election night, likely very tight races. That'll mean we won't have exact numbers that day. And remember, certified¹⁹ results won't happen for weeks in many cases. That's exactly what's supposed to happen and happens in every election.

MART?NEZ: All right. We will check back with you. That's NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thanks a lot.

MONTANARO: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 ballots   

n.投票表决( ballot的名词复数 )；选举；选票；投票总数v.（使）投票表决( ballot的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• They're counting the ballots. 他们正在计算选票。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The news of rigged ballots has rubbed off much of the shine of their election victory. 他们操纵选票的消息使他们在选举中获得的胜利大为减色。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 pickup   

n.拾起，获得

参考例句：

• I would love to trade this car for a pickup truck.我愿意用这辆汽车换一辆小型轻便卡车。||The luck guy is a choice pickup for the girls.那位幸运的男孩是女孩子们想勾搭上的人。

5 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

6 roe   

n.鱼卵；獐鹿

参考例句：

• We will serve smoked cod's roe at the dinner.宴会上我们将上一道熏鳕鱼子。
• I'll scramble some eggs with roe?我用鱼籽炒几个鸡蛋好吗？

7 wade   

v.跋涉，涉水；n.跋涉

参考例句：

• We had to wade through the river to the opposite bank.我们只好涉水过河到对岸。
• We cannot but wade across the river.我们只好趟水过去。

8 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

9 undoubtedly   

adv.确实地，无疑地

参考例句：

• It is undoubtedly she who has said that.这话明明是她说的。
• He is undoubtedly the pride of China.毫无疑问他是中国的骄傲。

10 partially   

adv.部分地，从某些方面讲

参考例句：

• The door was partially concealed by the drapes.门有一部分被门帘遮住了。
• The police managed to restore calm and the curfew was partially lifted.警方设法恢复了平静，宵禁部分解除。

11 ebb   

vi.衰退，减退；n.处于低潮，处于衰退状态

参考例句：

• The flood and ebb tides alternates with each other.涨潮和落潮交替更迭。
• They swam till the tide began to ebb.他们一直游到开始退潮。

12 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

13 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

14 lieutenant   

n.陆军中尉，海军上尉；代理官员，副职官员

参考例句：

• He was promoted to be a lieutenant in the army.他被提升为陆军中尉。
• He prevailed on the lieutenant to send in a short note.他说动那个副官，递上了一张简短的便条进去。

15 celebrity   

n.名人，名流；著名，名声，名望

参考例句：

• Tom found himself something of a celebrity. 汤姆意识到自己已小有名气了。
• He haunted famous men, hoping to get celebrity for himself. 他常和名人在一起, 希望借此使自己获得名气。

16 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

17 flip   

vt.快速翻动；轻抛；轻拍；n.轻抛；adj.轻浮的

参考例句：

• I had a quick flip through the book and it looked very interesting.我很快翻阅了一下那本书，看来似乎很有趣。
• Let's flip a coin to see who pays the bill.咱们来抛硬币决定谁付钱。

18 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。

19 certified   

a.经证明合格的；具有证明文件的

参考例句：

• Doctors certified him as insane. 医生证明他精神失常。
• The planes were certified airworthy. 飞机被证明适于航行。