How does the Russia-Ukraine crisis look from Moscow?

How does the Russia-Ukraine crisis look from Moscow?

Transcript¹

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, about Russia's options as world powers try to deter² President Putin from an invasion of Ukraine.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

And we go next to Moscow, where we found Dmitri Trenin. He is the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and a frequent guest on this program. Welcome back, sir.

DMITRI TRENIN: Hey. Hi. Hi, Steve.

INSKEEP: I want to listen again to Vladimir Putin's fascinating remark where he says invading Ukraine is not something he wants to do, but it's actually an American trap. Let's listen.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN: (Through interpreter) You can drag us into some kind of military conflict, armed conflict - and by using their allies in Europe to impose these hard-line sanctions against us that the United States is talking about.

INSKEEP: Mr. Trenin, I hear that, and I understand him to be saying that maybe the United States wants to make me invade Ukraine. What do you hear in that comment?

TRENIN: Well, I don't hear it exactly that same way. Listen, for a very long time, Russians were concerned - at least they were expressing their concerns - over a potential Ukrainian move to regain³ control of Donbas on the model of the former Georgian president, Saakashvili...

INSKEEP: Right.

TRENIN: ...In 2008 in South Ossetia. So that's been a perennial⁴ concern, if you like, or suspicion on the Russian side. There's nothing new that I've heard in Putin's words here.

INSKEEP: I think when you're - we should just explain for people, you're talking about this region that Russia has assisted in trying to break away from Ukraine. And the Russians are concerned about some Ukrainian move to take it back, which they don't want. Is that right?

TRENIN: Yes. And I would add that recently, about 700,000 residents of that region, Donbas, have gained Russian citizenship⁵. So Russia has an obligation, if you like, to protect its citizens in case of a military conflict.

INSKEEP: Isn't this the very same region where the United States has been warning that Russia would create some kind of pretext⁶, which would give them an excuse to invade?

TRENIN: Well, I think this has been, again, a perennial suspicion on the Western side. So we have suspicions that mirror each other, and we have a situation in which the fog is pretty thick at times. And both sides actually are preparing for the worst.

INSKEEP: Let's turn back to Putin's words yesterday. As you watched and listened to that news conference, did you see any sign that President Putin is looking for a way out, short of war?

TRENIN: Well, first of all, I never thought that Vladimir Putin was preparing for war or preparing to invade, let's put it that way. I think he was using the massing of Russian forces, both in the spring of last year - and that's the - and the end of fall of last year, as diplomatic leverage⁷ to engage the United States to talk about Russian security concerns. And I would say he has succeeded in that. The talk has begun.

INSKEEP: Well, that is a very interesting point. Yesterday on this program, Leila Fadel spoke⁸ with Linda Thomas-Greenfield. She's the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. And she sounded optimistic about those talks. Let's listen.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED NPR BROADCAST)

LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD: We're still pursuing a diplomatic solution to give the Russians an offramp. Our hope is that this will work and that Putin will understand that war and confrontation⁹ is not the path that he wants to follow.

INSKEEP: She went on to say that we will give Russia an opportunity to discuss their security concerns, the very thing that you said Putin has wanted all along.

TRENIN: Exactly. And invasion or the threat of an invasion, I think, was the instrument that Vladimir Putin used to jolt¹⁰ the Western leadership - first of all, the U.S. leadership - out of its complacency about European security. That's - that seems clear to me.

INSKEEP: Well, the United States has said there's no way we can promise to never admit Ukraine to NATO, even though NATO seems to have no plans to admit Ukraine to NATO. But they don't want a promise never, ever to do it. But is there room for the U.S. to make some promise short of that, like saying, for example, we're not going to ever put troops in Ukraine or we're not going to put short-range missiles or intermediate-range missiles in Ukraine that could target Moscow? Could the U.S. say something like that and potentially satisfy Putin's concerns?

TRENIN: Well, first of all, I think that both those concerns can be satisfied. The United States will not - and I would repeat, not - admit Ukraine to NATO. Because admitting Ukraine to NATO raises the prospect¹¹ of a military collision with the other nuclear superpowers. The United States will never - and I would stress, never - do that. And the president of the United States said during this current crisis that no American forces will be sent to Ukraine. That is important. So they will never say that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. But still, Ukraine will not become a member of NATO as long as Russia would treat that membership or path to that membership as a (unintelligible). The second thing, again, the United States would be foolish, if not worse, to deploy¹² strike weapons in Ukraine because Russia has now the capacity to deploy similar systems...

INSKEEP: About 10 seconds.

TRENIN: ...A short distance from U.S. shores. And that would be something that the United States would want to avoid.

INSKEEP: It sounds like...

TRENIN: So I'm optimistic on both counts.

INSKEEP: You're optimistic on both counts that they can find a way to work that out. Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Center, thank you so much. I really appreciate it.

TRENIN: Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。

3 regain   

vt.重新获得，收复，恢复

参考例句：

• He is making a bid to regain his World No.1 ranking.他正为重登世界排名第一位而努力。
• The government is desperate to regain credibility with the public.政府急于重新获取公众的信任。

4 perennial   

adj.终年的；长久的

参考例句：

• I wonder at her perennial youthfulness.我对她青春常驻感到惊讶。
• There's a perennial shortage of teachers with science qualifications.有理科教学资格的老师一直都很短缺。

5 citizenship   

n.市民权，公民权，国民的义务(身份)

参考例句：

• He was born in Sweden,but he doesn't have Swedish citizenship.他在瑞典出生，但没有瑞典公民身分。
• Ten years later,she chose to take Australian citizenship.十年后，她选择了澳大利亚国籍。

6 pretext   

n.借口，托词

参考例句：

• He used his headache as a pretext for not going to school.他借口头疼而不去上学。
• He didn't attend that meeting under the pretext of sickness.他以生病为借口，没参加那个会议。

7 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

8 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

9 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

10 jolt   

v.（使）摇动，（使）震动，（使）颠簸

参考例句：

• We were worried that one tiny jolt could worsen her injuries.我们担心稍微颠簸一下就可能会使她的伤势恶化。
• They were working frantically in the fear that an aftershock would jolt the house again.他们拼命地干着，担心余震可能会使房子再次受到震动。

11 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

12 deploy   

v.（军）散开成战斗队形，布置，展开

参考例句：

• The infantry began to deploy at dawn.步兵黎明时开始进入战斗位置。
• The president said he had no intention of deploying ground troops.总统称并不打算部署地面部队。