美国国家公共电台 NPR--美国大片地区正在经历重大的人口变化

Wide swaths of the U.S. are experiencing a significant demographic shift

Transcript¹

Deaths exceeded births in half of U.S. states last year, marking a big shift. The pandemic and limits on immigration are partly to blame.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Large parts of the U.S. are experiencing a significant demographic shift. In 2020, deaths exceeded births in a record number of states. COVID-19 is partly to blame for this, which could have long-standing economic and political consequences. Sarah Lehr of member station WKAR in Lansing reports.

SARAH LEHR, BYLINE²: Lauren Whitmore and her husband planned to start trying to have their first child in early 2020, but that changed when the pandemic upended Whitmore's wedding photography business in Lansing, Mich.

LAUREN WHITMORE: We decided³ to put everything on pause. We just wanted to make sure we were in a stable place financially.

LEHR: They are expecting a baby in a few weeks. But overall, the pandemic appears to have accelerated a nationwide baby bust⁴. U.S. births were down nearly 8% in December 2020, compared to a year before, following years of declining fertility rates since the mid-2000s. On the other end of the life cycle is the pandemic. More than 300,000 Americans died from the virus in 2020; even more died last year. Alabama's health officer, Dr. Scott Harris, says more people died than were born in 2020 for the first time in that state's known history.

SCOTT HARRIS: In World War II or during the flu pandemic of 1918 or World War I, we've never had a time where deaths exceeded births.

LEHR: University of New Hampshire professor Kenneth Johnson says Alabama's numbers aren't outliers. His analysis shows more people died that were born in half of all states in 2020 - something that has never happened before.

KENNETH JOHNSON: It was pretty surprising that it was as widespread as it was.

LEHR: Kurt Metzger, a demographer⁵ in Michigan, says deaths eclipsed births there as well. And he's concerned about the trend. Michigan has lost six congressional seats since 1970, and Metzger says population equals power.

KURT METZGER: Federal dollars and the resources that come really will continue to go south and southwest if we don't figure out how to start to stabilize⁶ our population and grow it.

LEHR: Shifting population could force more school districts to merge⁷ in certain areas, and the economy could stagnate⁸ with fewer working-age adults. Although COVID was largely behind the recent uptick in deaths, this demographic shift has been decades in the making. Nyesha Black directs demographic research at The University of Alabama and notes the role of baby boomers.

NYESHA BLACK: They're more likely to have a higher median age and thus outside of what we would consider of childbearing years. Naturally, you're going to see fewer births and more deaths.

LEHR: There is one reason why the U.S. has historically been able to grow its population - immigration. But restrictions⁹ in recent years have affected¹⁰ immigration. Even still, with births down and deaths up, it accounts for most of the population growth in 2020 and 2021, even as that growth was at an all-time low of 0.1%.

For NPR News, I'm Sarah Lehr in Lansing, Mich.

(SOUNDBITE OF DAMMA BEATZ'S "WASTED ON YOU")

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

4 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

5 demographer   

n.人口统计学家

参考例句：

• Professor Antonio Golini is a demographer at the University of Rome. 罗马大学安东尼奥教授是位人口统计学家。 来自互联网
• Demographer William Frey says immigrants with young families will help keep the United States competitive. 人口统计学家佛瑞表示这些年轻的家庭会帮助美国保持竞争力。 来自互联网

6 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

7 merge   

v.(使)结合，(使)合并，(使)合为一体

参考例句：

• I can merge my two small businesses into a large one.我可以将我的两家小商店合并为一家大商行。
• The directors have decided to merge the two small firms together.董事们已决定把这两家小商号归并起来。

8 stagnate   

v.停止

参考例句：

• Where the masses are not roused,work will stagnate.哪里不发动群众，哪里的工作就死气沉沉。
• Taiwan's economy is likely to stagnate for a long time to come.台湾经济很可能会停滞很长一段时间。

9 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

10 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。