U.S. claims differ from what Russia says is happening along the Ukraine border

U.S. claims differ from what Russia says is happening along the Ukraine border

Transcript¹

Russia says it has withdrawn² some troops on the border with Ukraine, but the U.S. says Russia has added troops. NPR's A Martinez speaks with retired³ Brig. Gen. Peter Zwack about the competing claims.

A MARTINEZ, HOST:

There are competing claims about what is happening along Russia's border with Ukraine, where more than a hundred thousand Russian troops have been posted for the last several weeks. Russia says it has pulled back some of those troops. The U.S. says that is not true. Last night, a senior administration official told reporters that Russia is actually increasing its military presence along the border by as many as 7,000 troops, with some arriving as recently as today. Here to parse⁴ through the claims, we turn now to retired U.S. Army Brigadier General Peter Zwack. He served as the U.S. defense⁵ attache to Russia from 2012 to 2014. Welcome, General.

PETER ZWACK: Yes. Good morning to you and your listeners.

MARTINEZ: Now, OK, conflicting claims from Russia and the U.S. - General, what do you make of this discrepancy⁶?

ZWACK: It's - it makes everything more complicated now. This is not new. There have been aspects of this since Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 were signed in 2014 and 2015. OSCE is out there. It's along the line of contact. And these are reports that go back and forth⁷ over this long period of - you know, thousands have died. So in isolation⁸ and linked to this time when everybody should be taking a breath and slowing down, it is troublesome. And over the years, it has been a back-and-forth rounds here.

MARTINEZ: General, what would you need to see to make you believe that the Russians are really indeed pulling back, as they claim?

ZWACK: Yes. Well, first, in a perfect world, through the OSCE and what they call the Vienna Convention, there should be observers on both sides that are actually, with their eyes - OSCE and - OSCE observers that actually see these forces pulling back. Up-front type of units like short- to medium-range artillery⁹ - if they're in place, they should be packing up and going out. Basic, you know, stockpiles right up near the front should be picked up and pulled out.

MARTINEZ: General, does it matter where they would be packed up to? From the - for the equipment and the troops that have come from a longer distance, would it matter if those were the ones that went back?

ZWACK: Yes. From the - those forces from the Central Military District and Siberia, the Eastern Military District that we've heard of - that would be significant if they're loaded on trains and start to go. I think that there are a lot of smart analysts¹⁰ that are watching it. And if they're saying that this is just in dribs and drabs and added forces are coming in, obviously we're very, very skeptical¹¹. The forces - one other point to watch closely - 20 February is a witching hour. That is when, ostensibly, the union resolved - the Russian-Belarusian exercise ends in Belarus. At that point, do the Russians withdraw? And we should watch that very closely. If not, we should be very troubled by that. And then, of course, the fleet activities in the Black Sea - the Russians brought in, just recently, a number of landing craft - big landing craft from the Baltics. How those go - what they go - so there's a lot to be watching for.

MARTINEZ: And these exercises that you mention, why does the U.S. - why have they been saying for months that this seems different? I mean, aren't exercises just military exercises?

ZWACK: Well, very simply, we had in April, you know, a big, big demonstration¹² that the Russians then called exercises - got everybody nervous. Then, if we remember - and you reported on it - you had the Zapad, the quadrennial, the big, the huge Russian and Belarus exercise in the Western Military District last September. Now, that was the big one. This one, the Russians are saying, is - are exercises. These weren't announced. These were massive and linked directly, many believe, to the statements from Vladimir Putin out of the Kremlin about the demands regarding NATO, regarding 1997, regarding Ukraine itself. So seeing them come out of Belarus would be important, but there was no big - something on this scale was never reported to the OSCE or anybody else. It is highly dangerous and highly irregular at this time. Last thing, the Russians have a time hassle now. They are a month away - three weeks away from what they call Rasputitsa, the time without roads, when anything off-road is a sea of mud in these regions, which plagued the Germans in '41 and both the Soviets¹³ and the Germans in 1943, '44.

MARTINEZ: General, one last thing. I just got back from Ukraine - I'm sorry - and everyone I spoke¹⁴ to there told me that if Russia, indeed, decided¹⁵ to invade, that they would face a much different group of Ukrainian soldiers and Ukrainian people - much different than in 2014. How much does that mean in this situation against Russia's military might, to have a group of people with a bigger sense of resolve and a bigger sense of national identity?

ZWACK: Yes, great question. You will have hundreds of thousands of people that would be active in a defense, whether in formed units or in irregular militias¹⁶. It will be tough to fight the Russian formations out in the open, but you've got many, many towns, cities, that can be fortified¹⁷ and that will be hell on Russian formations trying to take, let alone hold, it. And then there are millions of Ukrainian citizens that may not be fighters that would be passively resisting, that would be just fundamentally against such an invasion. It would be really hard, especially in that entire region where all these nations are looking - and very, very troubled with what's going on.

MARTINEZ: General Peter Zwack is a global fellow at the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute. General, thank you.

ZWACK: Take care. All best.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 withdrawn   

vt.收回；使退出；vi.撤退，退出

参考例句：

• Our force has been withdrawn from the danger area.我们的军队已从危险地区撤出。
• All foreign troops should be withdrawn to their own countries.一切外国军队都应撤回本国去。

3 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

4 parse   

v.从语法上分析；n.从语法上分析

参考例句：

• I simply couldn't parse what you just said.我完全无法对你刚说的话作语法分析。
• It causes the parser to parse an NP.它调用分析程序分析一个名词短语。

5 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

6 discrepancy   

n.不同；不符；差异；矛盾

参考例句：

• The discrepancy in their ages seemed not to matter.他们之间年龄的差异似乎没有多大关系。
• There was a discrepancy in the two reports of the accident.关于那次事故的两则报道有不一致之处。

7 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

8 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

9 artillery   

n.(军)火炮，大炮；炮兵(部队)

参考例句：

• This is a heavy artillery piece.这是一门重炮。
• The artillery has more firepower than the infantry.炮兵火力比步兵大。

10 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

11 skeptical   

adj.怀疑的，多疑的

参考例句：

• Others here are more skeptical about the chances for justice being done.这里的其他人更为怀疑正义能否得到伸张。
• Her look was skeptical and resigned.她的表情是将信将疑而又无可奈何。

12 demonstration   

n.表明，示范，论证，示威

参考例句：

• His new book is a demonstration of his patriotism.他写的新书是他的爱国精神的证明。
• He gave a demonstration of the new technique then and there.他当场表演了这种新的操作方法。

13 soviets   

苏维埃（Soviet的复数形式）

参考例句：

• A public challenge could provoke the Soviets to dig in. 公开挑战会促使苏联人一意孤行。
• The Soviets proposed the withdrawal of American ballistic-missile submarines from forward bases. 苏联人建议把美国的弹道导弹潜艇从前沿基地撤走。

14 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

15 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

16 militias   

n.民兵组织，民兵( militia的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The troops will not attempt to disarm the warring militias. 部队并不打算解除战斗中的民兵武装。 来自辞典例句
• The neighborhood was a battleground for Shiite and Sunni militias. 那里曾是什叶派和逊尼派武装分子的战场。 来自互联网

17 fortified   

adj. 加强的

参考例句：

• He fortified himself against the cold with a hot drink. 他喝了一杯热饮御寒。
• The enemy drew back into a few fortified points. 敌人收缩到几个据点里。