How have Russia's mixed signals about Ukraine complicated peace talks?

How have Russia's mixed signals about Ukraine complicated peace talks?

　　Transcript¹

　　NPR's A Martinez speaks to Bill Taylor, a former ambassador to Ukraine, about the status of Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

　　A MARTINEZ, HOST:

　　A Kremlin spokesman is throwing cold water on any optimism over peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. He says there were no breakthroughs, even though Russia's foreign minister claimed significant progress. Around the negotiations³ in Turkey this week, Russia also said it would scale back some military operations. Some ground forces pulled back from the outside of the capital and in one other city, but Ukrainian officials said Russian shells and missiles kept falling. So why the mixed signals? Joining me by way of Skype is former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor. He's now vice⁴ president of Russia and Europe at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Welcome back to the program, Ambassador.

　　WILLIAM TAYLOR: Thank you, A. It's great to be here.

　　MARTINEZ: Now, you've been in touch with Ukraine's top negotiators. How do they assess this latest round of talks?

　　TAYLOR: Well, A, they're serious. The Ukrainians are serious. They've given a lot of thought to this, as you would expect. They've been in close touch with their president, President Zelenskyy, so they are linked up with the political. The fact is, part one of the main negotiators is the top person in President Zelenskyy's political party in the Rada, so he is tuned⁵ in to the politics, which are going to be important. And the other is the minister of defense⁶, and the minister of defense obviously knows the issues on the ground with the military. So they're a serious delegation⁷, and they've given thought. They've even put together some proposals - some ideas - which are very interesting to - and what it says about where the Ukrainians are. So they're serious. It's not clear, A, where the Russians are. Their delegation is headed up by a former minister of culture. And, as you've been reporting, there seems to be a real disconnect or confusion or uncertainty⁸ or mixed messages coming out of Moscow about both the military side and the negotiating side, so...

　　MARTINEZ: Right. I was going to ask you about that because you said Ukrainian negotiators are in close communication with their president, Zelenskyy. It's unclear, as as some have reported, that Russian negotiators might not be as close in communication with their president.

　　TAYLOR: You're exactly right - exactly right. It's not clear anyone is in close communication or understands exactly what President Putin is after. As we know, A, we remember, when this whole thing began - that is, on, like, the 23 of February - there were a lot of people in the Russian government who did not know, or at least they were saying that there was going to be no invasion. So President Putin kept it very close, he kept a very small number of people around him, and I imagine that's still happening with regard to these negotiations. So it's just not clear from the Russian side.

　　MARTINEZ: Could all of this be - as a delegation of Ukrainian lawmakers said - a smokescreen to let, maybe, Russian troops regroup? Any evidence to back that up?

　　TAYLOR: Well, as you've reported, this comment coming out of the Turkish - the Turkey delegation - the Russian delegation down in Turkey last - this past week indicated that there would be a pullback - there would be somewhat of a reduction in the military activity. Well, there wasn't. There may have been a reduction on the ground, but the shells kept falling - not just in Kyiv, but in other cities as well, so it is not clear that they're serious about this reduction in violence. It's not clear that they were, again, connected into what's going on in Moscow. And you do have to worry that these negotiations are just to kind of deflect⁹ or defer¹⁰ or maybe try to say, well, we're - this is actually going to work out, so you don't have to send more than weapons in. You, the West, don't have to send more weapons into Ukraine, and maybe you can relax the sanctions a little bit. Well, that's not going to happen. We're not going to take that bait.

　　MARTINEZ: Does diplomacy¹¹ at gunpoint ever work? I mean, what's - what would be the negotiation² logic¹² of that?

　　TAYLOR: No logic - you're exactly right, and we've got some very clear evidence of that. So negotiations at gunpoint happened in 2014 and 2015 in Donbas. This resulted in the so-called Minsk agreements, where then-President Poroshenko in Ukraine had to sign a lopsided agreement. The Minsk agreements are very disadvantageous to the Ukrainians, very advantageous¹³ to the Russians, and he had to do that because he was negotiating at gunpoint - almost literally¹⁴, A - almost literally. There were Ukrainian troops that were surrounded by Russian troops, and so President Poroshenko had to sign this. It was not good, and it didn't work. So there is evidence that this is not a good tactic¹⁵.

　　MARTINEZ: So at this point, then, Ambassador, what more can the U.S. and the West do to strengthen Ukraine's hand?

　　TAYLOR: Two things - and we're doing these. We just need to do more. That is, I've already mentioned we need to provide the Ukrainians the weapons that they need to continue this fight. They need the - they've - the Ukrainians have done an amazing job, heroic job, of stopping the Russians coming down towards Kyiv, and in other places as well, and even counterattacking. And so they put the Russians, to some degree, on the defensive¹⁶ in certain places. That needs to continue. They need more weapons. They need more ammunition¹⁷. They need more missiles that go after tanks. They need more missiles that go after aircraft. They need more armored vehicles, A. They are - and they need that - and they need it soon. They need it now. It's not just soon...

　　MARTINEZ: Yeah.

　　TAYLOR: ...They need it today. So that's important. But the second thing is we need to continue to squeeze the Russians on sanctions. There are sanctions that there have not - that we - that the West has not put on the Russians yet, and we need to do that to reduce their ability to pursue this war.

　　MARTINEZ: Which ones? What sanctions do you think need to be added?

　　TAYLOR: I'm thinking that there's a great big Russian bank called Sberbank that is still connected into the SWIFT system.

　　MARTINEZ: Mmm. OK.

　　TAYLOR: That's just an obvious one they can do right away.

　　MARTINEZ: You know, back in January, when Russia was doing their military buildup near the Ukrainian border, when there was hope that maybe there could be cooperation between the U.S. and Russia, you said that you didn't see conversations that lead to a better understanding of each other's concerns about each other as a concession¹⁸ - that you felt that's valuable. Ambassador, considering what Russia has done to Ukraine since, is it still worth doing? Is it still worth trying to find out what Russia's concerned about?

　　TAYLOR: Of course. We should try to figure out what Russia's concerned about. The problem, of course, A, is that the leader of Russia, President Putin, is not a credible¹⁹ interlocutor. I mean, there is no reason to be talking to him. He has lied to President Biden. He has lied to his people. He's lied to his military. So there's no merit. There's no benefit to having that conversation. But, that said, sure, we should try to figure out what they're really after, and that's why the Ukrainians are sitting down with the Russians to have this conversation. And, actually, the Ukrainians are making some proposals to see what the - at least those Russian delegates, negotiators, would say about these. So that's sort of - it's important to continue that process.

　　MARTINEZ: Former Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor. Thank you very much.

　　TAYLOR: Thanks, A.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

3 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

4 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

5 tuned   

adj.调谐的，已调谐的v.调音( tune的过去式和过去分词 )；调整；（给收音机、电视等）调谐；使协调

参考例句：

• The resort is tuned in to the tastes of young and old alike. 这个度假胜地适合各种口味，老少皆宜。
• The instruments should be tuned up before each performance. 每次演出开始前都应将乐器调好音。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

7 delegation   

n.代表团；派遣

参考例句：

• The statement of our delegation was singularly appropriate to the occasion.我们代表团的声明非常适合时宜。
• We shall inform you of the date of the delegation's arrival.我们将把代表团到达的日期通知你。

8 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

9 deflect   

v.(使)偏斜，(使)偏离，(使)转向

参考例句：

• Never let a little problem deflect you.决不要因一点小问题就半途而废。
• They decided to deflect from the original plan.他们决定改变原计划。

10 defer   

vt.推迟，拖延；vi.(to)遵从，听从，服从

参考例句：

• We wish to defer our decision until next week.我们希望推迟到下星期再作出决定。
• We will defer to whatever the committee decides.我们遵从委员会作出的任何决定。

11 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

12 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

13 advantageous   

adj.有利的；有帮助的

参考例句：

• Injections of vitamin C are obviously advantageous.注射维生素C显然是有利的。
• You're in a very advantageous position.你处于非常有利的地位。

14 literally   

adv.照字面意义，逐字地；确实

参考例句：

• He translated the passage literally.他逐字逐句地翻译这段文字。
• Sometimes she would not sit down till she was literally faint.有时候，她不走到真正要昏厥了，决不肯坐下来。

15 tactic   

n.战略，策略；adj.战术的，有策略的

参考例句：

• Reducing prices is a common sales tactic.降价是常用的销售策略。
• She had often used the tactic of threatening to resign.她惯用以辞职相威胁的手法。

16 defensive   

adj.防御的；防卫的；防守的

参考例句：

• Their questions about the money put her on the defensive.他们问到钱的问题，使她警觉起来。
• The Government hastily organized defensive measures against the raids.政府急忙布置了防卫措施抵御空袭。

17 ammunition   

n.军火，弹药

参考例句：

• A few of the jeeps had run out of ammunition.几辆吉普车上的弹药已经用光了。
• They have expended all their ammunition.他们把弹药用光。

18 concession   

n.让步，妥协；特许(权)

参考例句：

• We can not make heavy concession to the matter.我们在这个问题上不能过于让步。
• That is a great concession.这是很大的让步。

19 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？