Politicians and strategists consider soaring inflation's effects on midterms

Politicians and strategists consider soaring inflation's effects on midterms

Transcript¹

NPR's A Martinez speaks with political analyst² Charlie Cook about the highest inflation in 40 years, and how it's likely to impact this year's midterm election campaigns.

A MARTINEZ, HOST:

More than 8%, inflation's the worst it's been in more than 40 years, and some economists³ predict a global recession before the end of the year. But how will the spike⁴ in consumer prices affect mid-term elections? Charlie Cook is a political analyst who founded and contributes to The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

Charlie, all right, let's jump right into it. How do you think this inflation experience is going to shape political futures⁵ for both parties?

CHARLIE COOK: Well, inflation has an enormous, enormous impact on people that - you know, Democrats⁶ tend to point to and focus on unemployment and - which is certainly important to the people that are unemployed⁷ and their families and communities and things. But that's usually - you know, the difference between low unemployment and high unemployment is maybe four percentage points. But the difference - but 100% of people are affected⁸ by inflation, and so you could actually argue that it's like 25 times more. So Republicans will be trying to argue that - will be pointing out, you know, the administration said there would - not going to be inflation, it would just be transitory, and now we have it. And Democrats are going to be arguing, we hear you, we see you, we're doing everything we possibly can. And hopefully - you know, hopefully for them, inflation will get blamed on somebody else.

MARTINEZ: So, Charlie, I'm imagining someone waking up on November 8 with a checklist of things to do. They're going to go to the supermarket in the morning, they're going to gas up the SUV, and then they're going to go hit a voting center. I mean, how might that affect what they do in that voting center, once they get gouged⁹ at the supermarket and then at the gas station?

COOK: Well, it's - people tend to - if they are - if voters are mad about one thing or mad at a president about one thing, it tends to contaminate everything else. And so no matter what a president's doing that might be good, it doesn't mean as much if voters are really mad at you about whatever it is that they're most interested in - most involved in. And as I said, inflation is something that just cuts through like a knife and has an enormous, enormous impact. So this is - in midterm elections, it's about, you know, how big a turnout can a president's party get, knowing that they're - usually you're a little bit disillusioned¹⁰, disappointed or complacent¹¹ come midterm election time, and the party out of power is usually hypermotivated. They're angry. They want revenge. And then there's the little 10% in the middle that's the truly independents. And, you know, they tend to get buyer's remorse¹² in these elections.

MARTINEZ: When a political party, though, Charlie, controls the White House, the House and the Senate, how often does that contamination that you mentioned filter down to the other two?

COOK: A lot. Well, the contamination - people will vote on - they'll sort of rifle-shot their vote on that, so that, you know, it doesn't - wouldn't matter how great a job President Biden is doing on handling Ukraine or the coronavirus. If voters are mad about the economy in general and inflation in particular, then that's the rifle-shot vote, and that's what Democrats have to really worry about.

MARTINEZ: Midterms, historically, have almost been like a progress report for the governing party, forecasting what the presidential election year report card may be. So, Charlie, given how polarized the country is, is there any chance for a reversal in the short and the long term?

COOK: Well, we learned in 2016 - you know, you never can say no chance of anything, but I don't see much on the horizon that could reverse the course. I mean, this thing may get - it could get worse for Democrats. It could get a little less worse, but it's not likely to reverse course. Perhaps, maybe, if Roe¹³ v. Wade¹⁴ is just completely overturned, that - you know, that could galvanize Democratic voters. But this is - you know, this is likely to be a pretty ugly election, and the only question is - for Democrats, the only question is, like, how ugly will it be?

MARTINEZ: And how much - and you mentioned, you know, how it doesn't matter, you know, if a president is doing well, say, in foreign policy matters as, you know, if things at home aren't going the way that Americans want them to. But when it comes to, say, something like Ukraine - if there is significant progress, and it looks like Biden undeniably can be credited for turning things around there, I mean, could that be something that he uses, even if inflation is still at the rate that it's at?

COOK: Well, the president and Democrats can try, but, generally speaking, foreign policy in general - and unless - you know, unless we're having heavy casualties, it just doesn't weigh into voting decisions. It just never has, and that would be hard to imagine - that if they think you're doing a good job on one thing, then they start focusing on something else. But, you know, it's not likely that the economy is going to turn around enough or that the inflation is going to come down enough, I think, by November for this not to be a headwind for Democrats. And the question is just how - you know, how strong of a headwind will it be?

MARTINEZ: And with predictions servicing of a recession, maybe, in the next couple of years, I mean, what does the Biden administration need to do right now to respond?

COOK: Well, and a recession could string over or start coming out of 2022, going into the 2024 election. So it's just paddle like - you know, just paddle, like, as fast as you can. We're doing everything. We're focusing. We're doing everything humanly possible. We're not ignoring this. We hear you.

MARTINEZ: Political analyst Charlie Cook, thanks a lot.

COOK: Thank you, A.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

5 futures   

n.期货，期货交易

参考例句：

• He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
• Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。

6 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

8 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

9 gouged   

v.凿( gouge的过去式和过去分词 )；乱要价；（在…中）抠出…；挖出…

参考例句：

• The lion's claws had gouged a wound in the horse's side. 狮爪在马身一侧抓了一道深口。
• The lovers gouged out their names on the tree. 情人们把他们的名字刻在树上。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

10 disillusioned   

a.不再抱幻想的，大失所望的，幻想破灭的

参考例句：

• I soon became disillusioned with the job. 我不久便对这个工作不再抱幻想了。
• Many people who are disillusioned in reality assimilate life to a dream. 许多对现实失望的人把人生比作一场梦。

11 complacent   

adj.自满的；自鸣得意的

参考例句：

• We must not become complacent the moment we have some success.我们决不能一见成绩就自满起来。
• She was complacent about her achievements.她对自己的成绩沾沾自喜。

12 remorse   

n.痛恨，悔恨，自责

参考例句：

• She had no remorse about what she had said.她对所说的话不后悔。
• He has shown no remorse for his actions.他对自己的行为没有任何悔恨之意。

13 roe   

n.鱼卵；獐鹿

参考例句：

• We will serve smoked cod's roe at the dinner.宴会上我们将上一道熏鳕鱼子。
• I'll scramble some eggs with roe?我用鱼籽炒几个鸡蛋好吗？

14 wade   

v.跋涉，涉水；n.跋涉

参考例句：

• We had to wade through the river to the opposite bank.我们只好涉水过河到对岸。
• We cannot but wade across the river.我们只好趟水过去。