The war will go on until Russia essentially cannibalizes Ukraine, professor says

The war will go on until Russia essentially¹ cannibalizes Ukraine, professor says

Transcript²

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to Sergey Radchenko, a Russian history professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, on what's behind Putin's shift in the focus in the war on Ukraine.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Let's turn next to Sergey Radchenko. He's a Russian academic with Ukrainian heritage who works in the West. He's at Johns Hopkins and currently actually in London. Welcome to the program.

SERGEY RADCHENKO: Oh, thank you for having me on the program.

INSKEEP: So Russia's military for the first time is spelling out its goals in this so-called second phase of the war. There's a general who says Russia plans to seize full control over the Donbas region - That's the eastern part of the country - and also full control over southern Ukraine to connect it with Crimea. Do you feel you understand Russia's strategy?

RADCHENKO: Well, the Russian strategy has been shifting throughout this conflict. They counted, obviously, on a short victory within a few days. That failed. They failed to topple the government in Kyiv. So they've shifted now to trying to capture control over Donbas and also capture - according to these latest statements, capture southern Ukraine so as to deny Ukraine access to scene - potentially access Transnistria, which is another frozen conflict in Moldova, where there are also pro-Russian separatists.

INSKEEP: And I'll just note Brian Mann was describing reports of military activity in southern Ukraine, which suggests there could be some truth to the Russian desire, at least, to grab that part of the country.

RADCHENKO: Well, absolutely. That - you know, I don't think we should underestimate Russian firepower. And although they've found this war very difficult, tough going so far, the ability to inflict³ considerable damage remains⁴. And I think - you know, I think the Russians are determined⁵ to continue this war until they essentially cannibalize Ukraine. I think that's the game plan for now.

INSKEEP: We had a glimpse through an open door again in Russia. There was a pro-Kremlin Telegram channel that posted a report of thousands of casualties and then took it back down again. We don't really know how many Russian dead there are, but we know there are a lot of them. At what point, if at all, do Russia's military losses influence Russia's strategic actions?

RADCHENKO: Well, we've had that - this is the second time this sort of leak happens. It's not clear whether it's a hack⁶ or a leak. It's not exactly clear how many Russians have been lost, how many Russian troops have been lost in this war. But, of course, a considerable number has been lost. And that actually bounces back against the public opinion in Russia as the Russians take in for the first time the real costs of this war in terms of their, you know, cost for their own troops, their own soldiers. Does the government worry about this? I think so. I think that's one of the reasons why Putin actually publicly called off the storm of remaining holdout in Azovstal plant in Mariupol because he worried...

INSKEEP: Oh, this is very - you're saying that when Putin said the casualties there are pointless, that he meant it, at least in terms of reassuring⁷ public opinion that they're not senselessly sending people into their deaths.

RADCHENKO: Well, it's not a total war for Putin yet. He's still trying to do it on the cheap, as it were. He's not - he has not committed the full extent of Russian resources to this war. Obviously, he's trying to keep the losses as low as possible because he understands that military losses and economic problems, which Russia is now facing, increasingly serious economic problems, will translate long term into a decrease of support for this war on the part of the broader population.

INSKEEP: How much anxiety do you perceive about the longer and longer term effect of sanctions on Russia?

RADCHENKO: Well, there - obviously, they will face serious economic problems. I mean, Russia is already having massive inflation. On the other hand, the immediate⁸ effect of sanctions was, of course - you know, there was a considerable horror in Russia itself. We've seen some of that horror dissipating now over the weeks because, you know, the ruble has seemingly stabilized⁹, and the economy continues. So over the long term, it's conceivable that Russia will adjust to economic sanctions, much as it has adjusted to much weaker economic sanctions back in 2014. But obviously, over the long, long term, those sanctions will have their effect in decreasing Russia's economic growth.

INSKEEP: In a few seconds, are the sanctions most hurting the people who are most sympathetic to the West because they were the people who had connections to the outside?

RADCHENKO: Well, some of them certainly do. So, for example, Russian dissidents who have been forced to flee Russia cannot access their money in Russia because their bank cards do not work. But, you know, it's - the sanctions this time have been very extensive and. A lot of people in Russia, as well, are facing problems, You know, just in terms of unemployment, etc.

INSKEEP: Sergey Radchenko is a professor of Russian history at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Thanks so much.

RADCHENKO: Thank you for having me.

1 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 inflict   

vt.(on)把…强加给，使遭受，使承担

参考例句：

• Don't inflict your ideas on me.不要把你的想法强加于我。
• Don't inflict damage on any person.不要伤害任何人。

4 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

5 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

6 hack   

n.劈，砍，出租马车；v.劈，砍，干咳

参考例句：

• He made a hack at the log.他朝圆木上砍了一下。
• Early settlers had to hack out a clearing in the forest where they could grow crops.早期移民不得不在森林里劈出空地种庄稼。

7 reassuring   

a.使人消除恐惧和疑虑的，使人放心的

参考例句：

• He gave her a reassuring pat on the shoulder. 他轻拍了一下她的肩膀让她放心。
• With a reassuring pat on her arm, he left. 他鼓励地拍了拍她的手臂就离开了。

8 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

9 stabilized   

v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The patient's condition stabilized. 患者的病情稳定下来。
• His blood pressure has stabilized. 他的血压已经稳定下来了。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》