Russia's national energy company cuts off natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria

Russia's national energy company cuts off natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria

Transcript¹

European leaders say Russia's decision to cut off natural gas supplies amounts to blackmail². NPR's Leila Fadel talks to Henning Gloystein, energy director at the Eurasia group, about Russia's move.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

European leaders say Russia's decision to cut off natural gas supplies amounts to blackmail. Russia's national energy company announced it was turning off the tap to Poland and Bulgaria because they refused to pay for supplies in rubles. The move shows Moscow's leverage³ over Europe. It's the biggest supplier of natural gas to the union, and it comes as European nations step up military support to Ukraine and more European nations join the U.S. in its mounting sanctions on Russia.

Joining us now to discuss all this is Henning Gloystein. He's the director of energy, climate and resources at the Eurasia Group, based in London. Good morning.

HENNING GLOYSTEIN: Good morning. Thank you for having me.

FADEL: So this seems like a big move, cutting off gas supplies. How significant is it in terms of possible impact here?

GLOYSTEIN: It is indeed a big move. It's a further escalation⁴ of the conflict between Russia and the EU as well. Russia is essentially⁵ signaling all its customers in the EU that it is willing to cut off its supply if these clients in Europe are not willing to switch their payment currency from euros or dollars into ruble, as Gazprom is demanding. So there is a significant risk of further cut-offs because there are dozens of supply contracts that Russia still has in the EU and which will all be under review right now.

FADEL: Is this really about rubles and dollars, or is it about - is this Russia's answer to sanctions, their form of sanctions?

GLOYSTEIN: Yeah, it's probably a bit of both. I mean, Poland earlier this week has announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, so there is the possibility that it's in response to that. But Russia does also need to support the ruble, its currency. And, you know, if it manages to switch all its payments for the natural gas it sends to Europe, which is a lot, that would give the ruble some significant support. So it's probably mostly to support the currency, but also a convenient tool to punish the EU for sanctions. It's economic warfare⁶, effectively.

FADEL: Yeah. As you mentioned, President Vladimir Putin said, quote, "unfriendly foreign buyers would have to pay in rubles instead of dollars and euros." But no country except Hungary has actually agreed to this. And you mentioned Poland has announced sanctions, but why are Poland and Bulgaria specifically being singled out maybe beyond that?

GLOYSTEIN: Well, I mean, there is, of course, the slight notion that they are weaker links within the EU. It is - and they are not overall massive customers for Gazprom, so cutting them off - it's 10 billion cubic meters from Poland and three from Bulgaria. It's not huge for Gazprom. It's not a big loss of revenue for them, whereas if it, say, cut off Italy or Germany, it would be a massive loss of revenue for Gazprom. So it is a gradual escalation, showing all the big customers in Europe that Russia is willing to act if they don't, you know, bow to the blackmail that essentially is happening here.

FADEL: Do you expect Russia to escalate⁷, to go after bigger countries? Is this a tit for tat at this point?

GLOYSTEIN: It's possible. I mean, it's mostly actually with companies rather than governments, but it's the big importers, of course. And in Germany and Italy and elsewhere in the Netherlands, they will be looking at their supply contracts. They will be talking to their national governments to see whether they are allowed to pay in ruble or whether they're even willing to give in to this form of blackmail because it is a breach⁸ of existing contracts or whether they can find alternative supply sources. So it's very hard to say, I mean, whether Russia is willing to further cut off bigger supply deals because it would be incredibly painful for Russia as well. But it's a bad sign. I mean, it's not a good situation Europe is in here because it is entirely⁹ possible that Russia cuts supply. This isn't as bad as now in May and as we're heading into summer, where gas demand and heating demand is really low. But it is a risk for next winter, when things get cold again, and people might freeze at home if there is no gas.

FADEL: Now, Germany says it's already preparing for the fallout. A gas lobby group there says it needs to immediately start stockpiling for next winter and reduce consumptions. Will other European countries, you think, start to do the same?

GLOYSTEIN: Oh, yeah, absolutely. Actually, I'm in Berlin right now. And we've been speaking to the energy industry for the last day or two. Everyone in Europe who has Russian supply contracts - so Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Austria, Czech Republic - they're all looking at any form of alternatives they can access just to ensure that the inventories¹⁰ are filled up ahead of next winter and in case of a major Russian supply disruption. They're all in emergency mode now.

FADEL: And this decision - what is the larger economic impact across Europe? What might it look like beyond Poland and Bulgaria?

GLOYSTEIN: I mean, it's another flame in a fire to the inflationary pressure that's happening across Europe. I mean, gas prices are really high. Gas is needed not just for heating. It's an industrial feedstock for fertilizer. There's a fertilizer shortage in the world already. It's needed to make additives¹¹ for diesel¹² in trucks as a fuel. So it adds inflationary pressure that is already high, I mean, in the EU and around the world. EU inflation levels have hit multi-decade highs, and this is just going to add to that problem. And of course, if there is massive supply cuts from Russia later this year, we might even have to see energy rationing¹³ in some parts of Europe. And energy rationing means demand curtailments of industry, and that would then, you know, be a massive blow to the EU's economic growth and maybe even cause a recession.

FADEL: So it sounds like it could have larger implications even beyond Europe.

GLOYSTEIN: Absolutely. I mean, the EU will now try and access any form of gas that it can, that is not Russian, and that means mostly liquefied natural gas or LNG tankers¹⁴. And they will bid the price for those up really significantly, as they have in the past. They did this already last December, when they were first fearing an interruption of Russian gas. And this, of course, means that gas buyers across the world, as far away as Japan and China and South Korea, will have to pay more for gas because the Europeans are entering this global market and driving up the price.

FADEL: Henning Gloystein with the Eurasia Group, thank you so much.

GLOYSTEIN: Thank you very much.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 blackmail   

n.讹诈，敲诈，勒索，胁迫，恫吓

参考例句：

• She demanded ＄1000 blackmail from him.她向他敲诈了1000美元。
• The journalist used blackmail to make the lawyer give him the documents.记者讹诈那名律师交给他文件。

3 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

4 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

5 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

6 warfare   

n.战争(状态)；斗争；冲突

参考例句：

• He addressed the audience on the subject of atomic warfare.他向听众演讲有关原子战争的问题。
• Their struggle consists mainly in peasant guerrilla warfare.他们的斗争主要是农民游击战。

7 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

8 breach   

n.违反，不履行；破裂；vt.冲破，攻破

参考例句：

• We won't have any breach of discipline.我们不允许任何破坏纪律的现象。
• He was sued for breach of contract.他因不履行合同而被起诉。

9 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

10 inventories   

n.总结( inventory的名词复数 )；细账；存货清单（或财产目录）的编制

参考例句：

• In other cases, such as inventories, inputs and outputs are both continuous. 在另一些情况下，比如存货，其投入和产出都是持续不断的。
• The store must clear its winter inventories by April 1st. 该店必须在4月1日前售清冬季存货。

11 additives   

n.添加剂( additive的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• chemical additives in petrol 汽油中的化学添加剂
• It'says on the packet that these crisps contain no additives. 包装上说这些炸薯片不含添加剂。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 diesel   

n.柴油发动机，内燃机

参考例句：

• We experimented with diesel engines to drive the pumps.我们试着用柴油机来带动水泵。
• My tractor operates on diesel oil.我的那台拖拉机用柴油开动。

13 rationing   

n.定量供应

参考例句：

• Wartime austerities included food rationing and shortage of fuel. 战时的艰苦包括食物配给和燃料短缺。
• Food rationing was abolished in that country long ago. 那个国家早就取消了粮食配给制。

14 tankers   

运送大量液体或气体的轮船[卡车]( tanker的名词复数 )； 油轮； 罐车； 油槽车

参考例句：

• They should stop offloading waste from oil tankers into the sea. 他们应当停止从油轮上往海里倾倒废弃物。
• The harbour admits large tankers and freighters. 这个港口容得下巨型油船和货轮。