EU proposes a ban on Russian oil imports

EU proposes a ban on Russian oil imports

Transcript¹

NPR's Leila Fadel speaks with Ben Cahill at the Center for Strategic and International Studies about a European Union proposal to phase out imports of Russian oil and refined products.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

The U.S. has already banned oil imports from Russia. Now Europe is thinking about doing the same. The EU's president, Ursula von der Leyen, is proposing phasing out Russian crude oil imports within six months and refined oil products from Russia by the end of the year.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

URSULA VON DER LEYEN: And let's be clear - it will not be easy because some member states are strongly dependent on Russian oil, but we simply have to do it.

FADEL: The ban would only go into effect if all 27 member nations approve, but oil markets are already responding with a sharp rise in prices. Here to talk about this is Ben Cahill. He's a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies here in Washington, D.C. Good morning.

BEN CAHILL: Hi, Leila.

FADEL: So, Ben, as the head of the EU noted² in her speech to the European Parliament, this is not an easy thing for Europe to undertake. So how hard would this be for member nations?

CAHILL: It would be really difficult. I mean, Russia is not your run-of-the-mill oil producer. It's one of the three big oil producers in the world, along with Saudi Arabia and the United States. It's the world's largest oil exporter, if you combine crude and products, and Europe relies on Russia for more than a quarter of its oil. You know, if you combine crude oil and petroleum³ products, Russia supplies about 8% of global demand, so it's really hard to dismiss that.

FADEL: Yeah.

CAHILL: You know, even six months to a year is a pretty aggressive timeline to do something like this.

FADEL: I mean, is it even possible for Europe to survive without Russia's supplies?

CAHILL: Well, we're about to find out.

FADEL: Yeah.

CAHILL: I think what's going to happen is that, eventually, there'll be a reordering of crude flows around the world. So less will flow - or perhaps not at all - from Russia to Europe. Europe will have to look to other suppliers, like the Middle East, North Africa, the United States, and try to find crude and products wherever it can. But it takes time to do something like this, and, you know, frankly⁴, the scale of this kind of disruption is something that we haven't seen on this timeline.

FADEL: Wow.

CAHILL: It's going to be tough.

FADEL: Do we have an idea of how broad the support is for this kind of ban?

CAHILL: I think one of the challenges is that the decision within the EU has to be unanimous. And if you look across the EU, there's a pretty big variation in dependence⁵ on oil from Russia.

FADEL: Right.

CAHILL: So some countries, like Hungary and Slovakia, are heavily dependent on Russia. So I think that the EU proposal is going to allow, you know, a longer time to phase in full sanctions on Russian imports - maybe until the end of '23. But still, I think it's going to be pretty difficult to get everyone to go on board. And the reality is that, you know, some countries are much more economically exposed and more at risk.

FADEL: And what kind of impact can the wider international community expect if this ban goes into place?

CAHILL: We're really in uncharted territory, and I think that we have to expect that Russia is going to respond and lash⁶ out in different ways. You know, it's possible they'll make a preemptive strike by trying to cut off oil pipeline⁷ flows. Maybe they'll decide to shut off gas supplies to some countries in Europe, as they've already done with Poland and Bulgaria.

FADEL: Right.

CAHILL: And I think that Russia's also going to go to the OPEC+ countries and a lot of developing countries around the world, and a lot of them will be sympathetic to Russia, to be honest. I think the perception of much of the world is that, you know, the U.S. and the EU are going to drive up energy costs for the developing world, and it's going to create a lot of economic pressure right across the world. It's not just a European issue. This is a global oil market, and it's going to affect everyone.

FADEL: Now, if approved - excuse me - this ban, as proposed, as you mentioned, would be phased in. And what would that look like, and what might happen in the interim⁸?

CAHILL: I think what will happen is that we're going to see a much bigger disruption, but it's going to take some time for countries to find alternative supplies. What we've seen in recent months, since, you know, the initial round of sanctions, is that Russia has tried to find alternative buyers for its crude and products, and it's been forced to sell those at a pretty deep discount. So you do have some countries, like India and China, that are taking advantage and buying cheaper volumes. You know, but, ultimately, it's really hard to replace a buyer on the scale of Europe. I mean, Russia's just not going to be able to do it. So, again, it will take time for this to happen. I think it's possible that, you know, in a couple months, you're going to have shortages, and it's really a recipe for much higher prices. You know, I think the market has actually been pretty quiet over the last month, but the scale of these sanctions - the import ban - is really going to shake up the market, and I think we're going to look at high prices for quite a long time to come.

FADEL: In the few seconds we have left, this would be part of a sixth wave of sanctions on Moscow imposed by the UA - EU, excuse me. How would you assess the impact of energy sanctions so far?

CAHILL: I think policymakers have concluded so far that the sanctions are creating enough economic pressure on Russia. They really want to ratchet it up. This is the most powerful way to do that. I do think that we are placing a little bit too much confidence in the impact of sanctions, and the big question to me is - what if they don't work?

FADEL: Ben Cahill...

CAHILL: Or what if they're in place for a long time and they don't have the economic impact we want them to?

FADEL: Thank you.

Ben Cahill is a senior fellow with the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Thank you.

CAHILL: Thanks.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

3 petroleum   

n.原油，石油

参考例句：

• The Government of Iran advanced the price of petroleum last week.上星期伊朗政府提高了石油价格。
• The purpose of oil refinery is to refine crude petroleum.炼油厂的主要工作是提炼原油。

4 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

5 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

6 lash   

v.系牢；鞭打；猛烈抨击；n.鞭打；眼睫毛

参考例句：

• He received a lash of her hand on his cheek.他突然被她打了一记耳光。
• With a lash of its tail the tiger leaped at her.老虎把尾巴一甩朝她扑过来。

7 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

8 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。