美国国家公共电台 NPR--Economic signs are monitored for indications the U.S. may be headed for a recession

Economic signs are monitored for indications the U.S. may be headed for a recession

Transcript¹

NPR's A Martinez speaks with David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution, about economic indicators² and the likelihood of a recession in the U.S.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

Inflation is at its highest level in decades. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is choking off food and energy supplies, and the stock market is shedding value. Does all of this mean a recession is inevitable³? David Wessel heads the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution. David, one definition of recession is two quarters in which the economy, measured by the GNP, shrinks. So is it possible we're already in one?

DAVID WESSEL: Good morning, A. It's possible, yes, but it's unlikely. The U.S. economy, the GDP - the value of all the goods and services we produce in the U.S. - did contract in the first three months of this year. And though we don't have the official numbers yet, some economic forecasters think the GDP shrank in the second three months of the year as well. But the official arbiters⁴ of recession, a committee of academic economists⁶, doesn't use that definition. They define a recession as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread throughout the economy. And they usually pay particular attention to the job market. And what's interesting now is the job market continues to be very strong. The unemployment rate, 3.6%, is the lowest it's been in decades. The U.S. is adding 400,000 jobs a month for the past few months. And there are two vacant jobs posted for each person unemployed⁷ and looking for work. So that doesn't feel like we're in recession now.

MART?NEZ: So we should be focusing on the job market then?

WESSEL: Well, yes, that's one important place to look. Claudia Sahm, an economist⁵, finds that over recent history, a recession almost always follows when the three-month moving average of unemployment rises by half a percentage point. That hasn't happened yet. And also to watch is what happens to the claims for new unemployment insurance, people who are newly filing, because we get that data every week. But outside of the job market, I think one place to look is what's happening to consumer spending. Americans have been spending a lot, in part because so many of them have jobs, some of them are getting raises, and in part because they saved a lot of money during the pandemic. But that may be beginning to wane⁸. For instance, Target, that big retailer⁹, recently warned that profits are going to fall because it needs to cancel orders and offer discounts 'cause it has so many unsold goods on its shelves, a sign that maybe consumer demand is waning¹⁰.

MART?NEZ: But, David, I always hear that, you know, if you've got inflation, that means recession is coming. So what's the connection?

WESSEL: Well, what - why do we have inflation? Well, the major reason we have inflation is that demand in the economy is rising faster than the economy's capacity to supply goods and services and workers. And the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates now to make borrowing more costly¹¹ to discourage spending. It wants to slow demand. Jay Powell, the Fed chair, says he doesn't want a recession, but he's made clear that he's willing to take one if that's what's necessary to bring inflation back down towards his 2% target. So here's the thing. The quicker inflation comes down, for whatever reason - oil prices falling or supply chains resolving or whatever - the sooner the Fed will stop raising interest rates. So one thing to watch is the pace of price increases. If inflation comes down significantly in the next several months, then the Fed may relax, take a break from raising interest rates, and that will reduce the risk that we're going to have a recession in 2023 or 2024.

MART?NEZ: Another thing, though - to what extent does what happens outside of the U.S. determine whether we are in a recession?

WESSEL: Well, quite a bit. We still consume most of what we produce in the U.S., and we still make most of what we consume. But we do export a lot. So demand from abroad matters, and demand for Europe in particular is weakening sharply, partly because of rising energy costs there. And, of course, Americans have less money to spend on other things because the price of oil and food has gone up so much recently because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And then there's what's going on in China. China's an ever-bigger part of the global economy, so the COVID lockdowns there - shuttered factories, consumers who don't go shopping and buy iPhones or whatever - is affecting the U.S. economy. So if the U.S. economy begins to weaken because the Fed is raising interest rates and consumers are spending less, then foreign - falloff in foreign demand can make that even worse.

MART?NEZ: That's David Wessel at the Brookings Institution. David, thanks for the info.

WESSEL: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

3 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

4 arbiters   

仲裁人，裁决者( arbiter的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• In the forensicfield, the final arbiters of quality are the courts. 在法医学领域，质量的最后仲裁者是法庭。
• They are, increasingly, arbiters of which types of borrowers get credit. 它们正越来越多地充当决定哪几种借款人可获得信贷的裁决人角色。

5 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

6 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

8 wane   

n.衰微，亏缺，变弱；v.变小，亏缺，呈下弦

参考例句：

• The moon is on the wane.月亮渐亏。
• Her enthusiasm for him was beginning to wane.她对他的热情在开始减退。

9 retailer   

n.零售商(人)

参考例句：

• What are the retailer requirements?零售商会有哪些要求呢？
• The retailer has assembled a team in Shanghai to examine the question.这家零售商在上海组建了一支团队研究这个问题。

10 waning   

adj.（月亮）渐亏的，逐渐减弱或变小的n.月亏v.衰落( wane的现在分词 )；（月）亏；变小；变暗淡

参考例句：

• Her enthusiasm for the whole idea was waning rapidly. 她对整个想法的热情迅速冷淡了下来。
• The day is waning and the road is ending. 日暮途穷。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

11 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。