美国国家公共电台 NPR--What's on Biden's agenda for his first Middle East trip as president

What's on Biden's agenda for his first Middle East trip as president

Transcript¹

NPR'S Steve Inskeep speaks with Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf² State Analytics, about the president's goals on his upcoming trip to the Middle East.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Over the next few days, President Biden visits Israel, then goes to the West Bank and then Saudi Arabia. He will meet the crown prince, Mohammed bin³ Salman. The president once referred to the kingdom as a global pariah⁴. But when a country is a major oil producer and one of the world's twenty largest economies and a big actor in this region and an old U.S. ally and even kind of a quiet friend to Israel, the United States pays attention. So let's talk about this visit with Giorgio Cafiero, who's CEO of Gulf State Analytics. Welcome back to the program.

GIORGIO CAFIERO: Good to be with you. Thank you.

INSKEEP: What caused the president to change his view of Saudi Arabia or maybe, I should say, his approach to Saudi Arabia?

CAFIERO: I think there are a host of issues on the international stage that have been taking place this year in a rapidly evolving environment, which has led to the Biden administration determining that any moral costs of Biden making this trip to the kingdom would not outweigh⁵ the perceived benefits of doing so. And in general, the Biden administration understands that Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, is set to be the next king of Saudi Arabia. And they think this meeting between Biden and the leadership in Saudi Arabia has a lot to do with the White House simply coming to terms with reality and preparing for a future in which Mohammed bin Salman is on the throne.

INSKEEP: I'm thinking of one particular incident when you talk about practical needs that might outweigh the moral costs of reengaging with Saudi Arabia. When the U.S. was trying to rally the world to isolate⁶ Russia, the Saudis seemed less helpful than the U.S. might have wished. And it immediately became apparent that's one of a host of reasons that the U.S. might need the Saudis.

CAFIERO: Well, yes. And intensifying⁷ great power competition is a very important part of the picture here. One of the reasons why Joe Biden is going to be going to Saudi Arabia is to try to bring Riyadh a little closer to the U.S. and other Western countries, geopolitical orbits. And this comes at a time in which the U.S. has been very concerned about Saudi Arabia, as well as other Arab states moving closer and closer to China and Russia. So I think this trip is very important from the standpoint of the Biden administration's efforts to really assert U.S. influence in the Gulf region.

INSKEEP: Has the U.S., then, had to just drop its questions about the murder of a journalist, Jamal Khashoggi?

CAFIERO: Well, I'm not sure we could go as far as saying that the U.S. is going to entirely⁸ drop this issue. But it is clear that the Biden administration is not making this the sort of centerpiece of its approach to the crown prince. For all intents and purposes, we can say that Mohammed bin Salman, for the most part, basically, got away with that murder. And the fact that Joe Biden is going to be going to Saudi Arabia this week and meeting with the crown prince really underscores that point. This really marks the end of any idea of the Biden administration making good on Biden's pledge from 2019 to treat Saudi Arabia as a global pariah.

INSKEEP: I wonder if the itinerary⁹ of this visit illustrates¹⁰ another way that the Saudis would like to make themselves useful to the U.S. and to its allies. What does it say when the president goes from Israel and the West Bank to Saudi Arabia?

CAFIERO: Well, this is an important factor, too, has to do with the Saudi-Israeli relations and also Arab-Israeli relations in general. One of the ways in which the Biden administration is really selling this trip to the American media and the American public is by emphasizing that Biden going to Jeddah is going to be good from the standpoint of Israeli interests. While he's in Saudi Arabia and also when he's in Israel, before he gets to the kingdom, this topic of the Abraham Accords will be very central to discussions.

While Saudi Arabia has not ever had formalized relations with Israel - and I don't think we can expect Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords - there's no doubt that Riyadh has been important to the Arab region's trend toward normalization¹¹. And Saudi Arabia has been taking many steps toward sort of an unofficial normalization with Israel. And on this trip, I think Biden is going to definitely be talking to the Saudis about some more incremental¹² steps toward a de facto normalization. If Saudi Arabia can be supportive of other Arab or Muslim countries entering the Abraham Accords, it makes it a lot easier for those countries to establish full-fledged...

INSKEEP: Sure.

CAFIERO: ...Diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv.

INSKEEP: The Abraham Accords, of course, brought some Arab nations into relations with Israel. And you're saying that the Saudis may not go quite that far, but they have certainly been informally friendly to the Israelis. So the United States now comes to the Saudis. There's a price for this. We mentioned overlooking, to some extent, human rights abuses. But what else, if anything, do the Saudis need or want from the United States?

CAFIERO: Well, the Saudi leadership, obviously, is having to contend with the fact that the Iranian nuclear talks could collapse¹³ in acrimony. And this creates a lot of uncertainty¹⁴ in the Gulf, as well as the wider Middle East. So I think the Saudis are going to want the Biden administration to demonstrate strong U.S. commitment to the protection of the kingdom in the face of what could be some rising levels of Iranian aggression¹⁵. I personally don't think the Biden administration will earn the confidence of the Saudis in this regard. But I think a lot of Iran-related issues are important to what Saudi Arabia is going to want from this meeting. We're talking also about larger arms - new arms sales down the line and also with an uncertain future in Yemen.

INSKEEP: Giorgio Cafiero is CEO of Gulf State Analytics. Appreciate your analysis.

CAFIERO: Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。

3 bin   

n.箱柜；vt.放入箱内；[计算机] DOS文件名:二进制目标文件

参考例句：

• He emptied several bags of rice into a bin.他把几袋米倒进大箱里。
• He threw the empty bottles in the bin.他把空瓶子扔进垃圾箱。

4 pariah   

n.被社会抛弃者

参考例句：

• Shortly Tom came upon the juvenile pariah of the village.不一会儿，汤姆碰上了村里的少年弃儿。
• His landlady had treated him like a dangerous criminal,a pariah.房东太太对待他就像对待危险的罪犯、对待社会弃儿一样。

5 outweigh   

vt.比...更重，...更重要

参考例句：

• The merits of your plan outweigh the defects.你制定的计划其优点胜过缺点。
• One's merits outweigh one's short-comings.功大于过。

6 isolate   

vt.使孤立，隔离

参考例句：

• Do not isolate yourself from others.不要把自己孤立起来。
• We should never isolate ourselves from the masses.我们永远不能脱离群众。

7 intensifying   

v.（使）增强， （使）加剧( intensify的现在分词 )；增辉

参考例句：

• The allies are intensifying their air campaign. 联军部队正加大他们的空战强度。 来自辞典例句
• The rest of the European powers were in a state of intensifying congestion. 其余的欧洲强国则处于越来越拥挤的状态。 来自英汉非文学 - 历史

8 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

9 itinerary   

n.行程表，旅行路线；旅行计划

参考例句：

• The two sides have agreed on the itinerary of the visit.双方商定了访问日程。
• The next place on our itinerary was Silistra.我们行程的下一站是锡利斯特拉。

10 illustrates   

给…加插图( illustrate的第三人称单数 )； 说明； 表明； （用示例、图画等）说明

参考例句：

• This historical novel illustrates the breaking up of feudal society in microcosm. 这部历史小说是走向崩溃的封建社会的缩影。
• Alfred Adler, a famous doctor, had an experience which illustrates this. 阿尔弗莱德 - 阿德勒是一位著名的医生，他有过可以说明这点的经历。 来自中级百科部分

11 normalization   

n.（normalisation）正常化，标准化

参考例句：

• The visit signalled the normalization of relations between the two countries.这次访问显示两国关系已经正常化。
• He was pleased to the normalization of relationship between the police and the people.他很高兴警方和人民之间关系的正常化。

12 incremental   

adj.增加的

参考例句：

• For logic devices, the incremental current gain is very important. 对于逻辑器件来说，提高电流增益是非常重要的。 来自辞典例句
• By using an incremental approach, the problems involving material or geometric nonlinearity have been solved. 借应用一种增量方法，已经解决了包括材料的或几何的非线性问题。 来自辞典例句

13 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

14 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

15 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。