美国国家公共电台 NPR--Goldman Sachs CEO sees recession risk as more likely than his own economists do

Goldman Sachs CEO sees recession risk as more likely than his own economists¹ do

Transcript²

For college grads who want to make money and live in New York City, landing a job at Goldman Sachs is a golden ticket. And it is still harder to get hired by Goldman than it is to get into Harvard University.

"This week, we have about 3,500 undergraduates who are starting their careers here," says CEO David Solomon, in an interview with NPR. "That's 3,500 out of over 300,000 people that applied³ for those jobs."

Something those new hires are sure to notice is that many of their colleagues are also young.

"Half our organization is in its 20s," says Solomon, who moonlights as DJ D-Sol. Next week, he will perform at Lollapalooza, alongside Dua Lipa, Doja Cat and Metallica. (Solomon notes he will donate his performance fee to charity, and he also plans to meet with clients in Chicago.)

Since he became Goldman's CEO in 2018, Solomon has implemented⁴ some changes to the bank's culture, including a relaxed dress code and more flexibility⁵ when it comes to taking vacation days.

But early in the pandemic, Solomon drew a line in the sand, and he hasn't budged⁶: Solomon does not want his employees to work from home, in their pajamas⁷, in perpetuity. He believes they need to be in the office.

"They come to work at Goldman Sachs so they can be trained, they can be mentored⁸, they can learn, they can grow," says Solomon. "And that just doesn't happen at the same velocity⁹ if they're not present, sharing the experience with others."

Banking¹⁰ analysts¹² who watch the bank's performance closely say that, as the business environment sours, Goldman's emphasis on in-person work is going to be an advantage, or at least a differentiator¹³.

"The culture of Goldman is very important," says Gerard Cassidy, managing director of bank equity¹⁴ research at RBC Capital Markets. "It's an esprit de corps¹⁵. It's eat what you kill. And it works very effectively. But it really has worked because of everybody being in the office."

It certainly ensures Goldman employees, especially the newer ones, get a deep understanding of business broadly. A wide range of clients from around the world, from governments and corporations, to institutions and individuals, seek the bank's advice.

As the bank's CEO, Solomon has a bird's eye view of the global economy, and right now, he sees a lot of uncertainty¹⁶.

The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates aggressively to fight high inflation, and while Goldman's in-house economists are betting there is a 50% chance of a recession in the next two years, Solomon fears the odds¹⁷ are worse.

"It doesn't preoccupy¹⁸ me, but I think the chance of a recession some time in the next 24 months is high," he says.

Goldman Sachs is taking steps to prepare for a deeper economic downturn. When it reported earnings¹⁹ for the second quarter on Monday, it said it has set aside $667 million to cover potential losses, and the company's CFO announced the bank plans to "slow hiring."

Mike Mayo, a banking analyst¹¹ at Wells Fargo Securities, says the current market environment is especially difficult for Wall Street banks. This year, he notes, "we are experiencing the biggest decline in stocks and bonds in over 50 years."

But according to Mayo, Goldman is able to move nimbly when circumstances change. "Goldman Sachs is the antithesis²⁰ of the oil tanker²¹ analogy," he says.

This week, Solomon is headlining the 10,000 Small Businesses Summit in Washington. In response to a recent survey conducted by Goldman Sachs, 93% of small business owners who responded said they are worried about a recession in the next year.

Solomon says that being nimble and flexible is going to be the key for all businesses in the coming months, including his own.

He says what he admires most about the small business owners he will address is their optimism in the face of economic uncertainty.

"They are optimistic. They work hard. They are ambitious," he says. "They are fiercely independent in what they do."

1 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

4 implemented   

v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• This agreement, if not implemented, is a mere scrap of paper. 这个协定如不执行只不过是一纸空文。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The economy is in danger of collapse unless far-reaching reforms are implemented. 如果不实施影响深远的改革，经济就面临崩溃的危险。 来自辞典例句

5 flexibility   

n.柔韧性，弹性，（光的）折射性，灵活性

参考例句：

• Her great strength lies in her flexibility.她的优势在于她灵活变通。
• The flexibility of a man's muscles will lessen as he becomes old.人老了肌肉的柔韧性将降低。

6 budged   

v.（使）稍微移动( budge的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）改变主意，（使）让步

参考例句：

• Old Bosc had never budged an inch--he was totally indifferent. 老包斯克一直连动也没有动，他全然无所谓。 来自辞典例句
• Nobody budged you an inch. 别人一丁点儿都算计不了你。 来自辞典例句

7 pajamas   

n.睡衣裤

参考例句：

• At bedtime,I take off my clothes and put on my pajamas.睡觉时，我脱去衣服，换上睡衣。
• He was wearing striped pajamas.他穿着带条纹的睡衣裤。

8 mentored   

v.（无经验之人的）有经验可信赖的顾问( mentor的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They had a fantastic dean who really mentored a lot of people. 那儿的教务长非常出色，的确为许多人提供了指导。 来自互联网
• The famous professor mentored him during his years in graduate school. 那位著名的教授在他读研究生期间指导他。 来自互联网

9 velocity   

n.速度，速率

参考例句：

• Einstein's theory links energy with mass and velocity of light.爱因斯坦的理论把能量同质量和光速联系起来。
• The velocity of light is about 300000 kilometres per second.光速约为每秒300000公里。

10 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

11 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

12 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

13 differentiator   

区分者，微分器

参考例句：

• The jam fault of the differentiator is dangerous to steam turbine. 微分器卡涩对汽轮机正常运行有较大的危害。
• By using differentiator series method, the formula of partial integration is obtained. 用微分算子级数法得到分部积分公式，使一类积分计算变得十分简单。

14 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

15 corps   

n.(通信等兵种的)部队；(同类作的)一组

参考例句：

• The medical corps were cited for bravery in combat.医疗队由于在战场上的英勇表现而受嘉奖。
• When the war broke out,he volunteered for the Marine Corps.战争爆发时，他自愿参加了海军陆战队。

16 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

17 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

18 preoccupy   

vt.使全神贯注，使入神

参考例句：

• But at the moment he had other things to preoccupy him.不过当时有另外的事情分了他的心。
• An intelligent man considers the prospect of failure,but he doesn't preoccupy himself with pointless worry.一个聪明的男人可以预见到失败，但他绝不会去无谓地担心。

19 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

20 antithesis   

n.对立；相对

参考例句：

• The style of his speech was in complete antithesis to mine.他和我的讲话方式完全相反。
• His creation was an antithesis to academic dogmatism of the time.他的创作与当时学院派的教条相对立。

21 tanker   

n.油轮

参考例句：

• The tanker took on 200,000 barrels of crude oil.油轮装载了二十万桶原油。
• Heavy seas had pounded the tanker into three parts.汹涌的巨浪把油轮撞成三载。