美国国家公共电台 NPR--Given all the threats to the U.S., how significant a threat is ISIS right now?

Given all the threats to the U.S., how significant a threat is ISIS right now?

Transcript¹

NPR's Leila Fadel talks to Seth Jones at the Center for Strategic and International Studies about the threat from ISIS, and U.S. military operations that killed or captured some of its leaders.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

The U.S. military confirmed the death of an ISIS leader in Syria last week. A drone strike killed Maher al-Agal. U.S. Central Command called him one of the top five ISIS leaders worldwide. This mission was the third U.S. counterterrorism operation in Syria in about a month. So how significant a threat is ISIS right now? I asked Seth Jones. He's a senior vice² president and director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. His team keeps a database of groups that pose active threats to the U.S. Right now, they've got white supremacists and anti-government militias³ at the top and groups like ISIS at the bottom.

SETH JONES: I think, last year, there were three or 4% of the terrorist plots or attacks were coming from Salafi jihadist-inspired organizations like the Islamic State. So that threat has significantly declined in the last few years.

FADEL: You know, a statement from the White House said the latest in a series of U.S. military operations significantly degraded the ability of ISIS to operate. And I just want to ask you if that's true. Did it?

JONES: I don't think I could count on my hand - on both hands how many times U.S. officials have said that kind of a statement since 2001. I think what we've seen is the either death or capture of a range of individuals. The challenge is, though, without continuing efforts to operate against these groups and to try to deal with some of the problems, economic and others, that allow them to operate, I think these are short-term tactical and operational rather than strategic solutions.

FADEL: Now, the U.S. government has leaned on these drone strikes. But they've also faced a lot of criticism about either missing their targets or killing⁴ civilians⁶. And in some cases, those killings⁷ were covered up until investigative reporting publicized them. So how has the use of drone strikes under Biden changed as a result?

JONES: Well, first of all, the - I think the criticism was certainly apt in 2021 when the administration did orchestrate a drone strike in response to the killing of U.S. Marines. And actually, that highlights some of the limitations of drones. In that case, the U.S. military was involved in pulling out, had very little intelligence infrastructure⁸ on the ground. The drones were flying from the Middle East, which is a very long way for those drones to go and to come back. So I think what the Biden administration has done is actually decreased, significantly decreased, the number of drone strikes, not just in Afghanistan. I don't think there have been any reported since that failed strike in 2021 - but decrease them in every other theater, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, as well as Syria and Iraq. Doesn't mean there's zero, but it means decreased the numbers and try to be very careful on limiting civilian⁵ casualties.

FADEL: All places where drone strikes have also killed civilians - right? - I mean, pre-2021. I do want to ask about the strategy, then, of drone strikes. Are they effective when it's also possible to make more people angry at the U.S. and vulnerable to the propaganda of groups like ISIS?

JONES: Drones can be extremely important in the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance of terrorists, their organizations and infrastructure on the ground. That's how drones are predominantly used, really, for collection of what is going on. There is a limited use of drones, my experience, having been involved directly in some of these activities, limited in the strike component⁹. And I would say, strikes have occasionally significantly disrupted ongoing¹⁰ plots and taken out leaders that are involved in conducting external operations plots, including in the West. But they really should be limited in their use of strikes and as part of a much broader strategy that includes development, improved government in these areas. So they really should be kind of a backup rather than the front in any counterterrorism strategy.

FADEL: You mentioned that ISIS - groups like ISIS are kind of at the bottom when it comes to extremist and terrorist threats. Why is it important to continue preventative efforts with a group like ISIS? And how much of a threat do they pose right now?

JONES: Yeah. I think it's important to put pressure on organizations like ISIS. What groups need to be a serious threat is both the intent and the capability¹¹ to strike, not just in areas where they operate, but externally. So what ISIS has right now is the intent to conduct attacks overseas, but not really the capabilities¹². So that's the dilemma¹³, I think, that the U.S. and other governments have in dealing¹⁴ with them right now.

FADEL: Seth Jones directs the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Thank you so much for being on the program.

JONES: Thanks for having me.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

3 militias   

n.民兵组织，民兵( militia的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The troops will not attempt to disarm the warring militias. 部队并不打算解除战斗中的民兵武装。 来自辞典例句
• The neighborhood was a battleground for Shiite and Sunni militias. 那里曾是什叶派和逊尼派武装分子的战场。 来自互联网

4 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

5 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

6 civilians   

平民，百姓( civilian的名词复数 )； 老百姓

参考例句：

• the bloody massacre of innocent civilians 对无辜平民的血腥屠杀
• At least 300 civilians are unaccounted for after the bombing raids. 遭轰炸袭击之后，至少有300名平民下落不明。

7 killings   

谋杀( killing的名词复数 )； 突然发大财，暴发

参考例句：

• His statement was seen as an allusion to the recent drug-related killings. 他的声明被视为暗指最近与毒品有关的多起凶杀案。
• The government issued a statement condemning the killings. 政府发表声明谴责这些凶杀事件。

8 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

9 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

10 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

11 capability   

n.能力；才能；(pl)可发展的能力或特性等

参考例句：

• She has the capability to become a very fine actress.她有潜力成为杰出演员。
• Organizing a whole department is beyond his capability.组织整个部门是他能力以外的事。

12 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

13 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

14 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。