美国国家公共电台 NPR--Encore: CEOs are split over the likelihood of a recession in the U.S.

Encore: CEOs are split over the likelihood of a recession in the U.S.

Transcript¹

If the Federal Reserves moves too aggressively to combat inflation, there are fears it could trigger a recession. (Story first aired on Weekend Edition Sunday on June 12, 2022.)

Top CEOs in the U.S. are split over the likelihood of a recession

A MARTINEZ, HOST:

The Federal Reserve meets once again this week, and is likely to raise interest rates for the fourth time this year. It's part of aggressive actions to fight high inflation. But will the Fed's moves be too aggressive and tip the economy into recession? As NPR's David Gura reports, some of America's top CEOs say yes, but not all of them.

DAVID GURA, BYLINE²: In the world of business, Jamie Dimon has a lot of clout³. He's the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, one of the largest banks in the world. And that gives him unique insight. So it caused a stir when Dimon said recently the U.S. economy is about to get hit by a hurricane.

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JAMIE DIMON: That hurricane is right out there, down the road, coming our way. We just don't know if it's a minor⁴ one or Superstorm Sandy or Andrew or something like that. And you better brace⁵ yourself.

GURA: Elon Musk⁶, the CEO of Tesla, is also worried. He's announced plans to reduce the number of salaried workers at the carmaker by 10%.

Predictions by chief executives carry a lot of weight. They're trying to figure out what the future holds for their businesses. And right now, a growing number of them worry this period of high inflation and higher interest rates could have disastrous⁷ consequences. The CEO of Wells Fargo, Charles Scharf, told The Wall Street Journal there's no question there's going to be a downturn.

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CHARLES SCHARF: I think it's going to be hard to avoid, you know, some kind of recession, just given the magnitude of the slowing that has to take place.

GURA: What makes forecasting so tricky⁸ right now is how much the U.S. economy has going for it. Yes, inflation remains⁹ a big problem, but people are spending freely on travel and dinners out. And most importantly, the unemployment rate is at 3.6%, near the pre-pandemic low. That's something Fed policymakers point to when they argue they'll be able to do a very delicate dance that won't end in a deep downturn.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan addressed this last month during an interview in Davos, Switzerland.

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BRIAN MOYNIHAN: The question is, can they slow it down without tipping it over? And that's what the debate's about. People who get up in the morning on one side of the bed say it's going to tip over. People on the other side of the bed say we'll be fine. Our team believes we'll grow this year and next year.

GURA: Airline CEOs are also optimistic. They're seeing strong ticket sales, even with higher prices as the cost of fuel continues to go up. The CEO of Uber also doesn't seem worried. Dara Khosrowshahi told Bloomberg News he's not seeing warning signs in the company's data.

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DARA KHOSROWSHAHI: You know, we get a pretty live pulse of what's happening on the streets every day - right? - and in the cities in which we live. And at this point, we don't see any signal of a recession coming.

GURA: Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins told CNBC his clients are not slowing down or ordering less. And he argues all this talk about a recession could be dangerously self-fulfilling.

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CHUCK ROBBINS: In general, I think there's a wait-and-see attitude. And, you know, I have this fear that we talk so much about recession, we may actually create one on our own.

GURA: It may lead CEOs to cut back on spending preemptively, Robbins said, or cut staff. And people could scale back on their spending. That could lead to a downturn. Overall, a recent poll from the Conference Board shows most CEOs only see the risk of a mild recession, and most Wall Street economists¹¹ don't expect one at all. In fact, JPMorgan's chief economist¹⁰ disagrees with his boss's hurricane forecast. He doesn't see a storm coming.

David Gura, NPR News, New York.

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1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 clout   

n.用手猛击；权力，影响力

参考例句：

• The queen may have privilege but she has no real political clout.女王有特权，但无真正的政治影响力。
• He gave the little boy a clout on the head.他在那小男孩的头部打了一下。

4 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。

5 brace   

n. 支柱,曲柄,大括号; v. 绷紧,顶住,(为困难或坏事)做准备

参考例句：

• My daughter has to wear a brace on her teeth. 我的女儿得戴牙套以矫正牙齿。
• You had better brace yourself for some bad news. 有些坏消息,你最好做好准备。

6 musk   

n.麝香, 能发出麝香的各种各样的植物，香猫

参考例句：

• Musk is used for perfume and stimulant.麝香可以用作香料和兴奋剂。
• She scented her clothes with musk.她用麝香使衣服充满了香味。

7 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

8 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

9 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

10 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

11 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》