美国国家公共电台 NPR--Experts blame COVID lockdowns for China's economic stumbled in the 2nd quarter

Experts blame COVID lockdowns for China's economic stumbled in the 2nd quarter

Transcript¹

China's economy stumbled in the second quarter, and economists³ say the government's "dynamic zero COVID" policy is to blame — hurting confidence and exacerbating⁴ other pent up economic challenges.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

For most of the pandemic, China's economy has been a star performer. In fact, it's been a star performer for most of the past 40 years. But earlier this month, the government reported that the economy was weaker than many had expected. To help us understand what's going on with China's economy and why it matters, we're joined by NPR's John Ruwitch in Beijing. Hi, John.

JOHN RUWITCH, BYLINE⁵: Hey, Leila.

FADEL: So in a nutshell, how bad are things right now with China's economy?

RUWITCH: Yeah. Well, the latest quarter we have data for is Q2, which is the April, May, June period. The economy grew but barely, 0.4% year on year. And compared with Q1, it actually shrunk. And this is bad, right? This is an economy that's used to 6%, 7%, 8% growth. There's a big difference. The big picture is that, you know, growth has been slowing in recent years, and that's partly intentional⁶. The government's trying to create a more balanced economy. But here's the thing - this year, the country's economic and business challenges, which are real, have been exacerbated⁷ by one sort of big, overriding⁸ political priority.

FADEL: So what's that political priority?

RUWITCH: Yeah, that's dynamic zero - right? - zero-COVID. The authorities in China have pretty much decided⁹ that they're not going to live with COVID. They want to eradicate¹⁰ it. And the problem has been that omicron is really hard to contain. This has led to painful lockdowns, like what happened to Shanghai in April and May, as well as many other cities. The borders are very tight. It's hard to get in and out of China. And this all casts uncertainty¹¹ over pretty much everything. Dan Wang is the Shanghai-based chief economist² at Hang Seng Bank. She's been watching China's economy for a decade and says she hasn't really seen anything like this.

DAN WANG: When it comes to economic policies, right now, basically, all the economists have stopped giving predictions because of the unpredictable COVID situation.

RUWITCH: Yeah, that unpredictable situation is suppressing economic activity and compounding the effects of other challenges to the economy.

FADEL: What are those other challenges?

RUWITCH: One key area that's been bubbling up is real estate. By some estimates, it's giant. It's a quarter of the entire economy. Before omicron, the government had started to crack down on excessive debt in the property sector¹². It was bitter medicine. Economists were in favor of it, many of them were. But zero-COVID has just complicated things. It's driven down economic growth. That has pushed down confidence in the economy. People who aren't confident aren't buying property, right? So that means less income for developers that are already feeling a squeeze from the policy side. And it's exacerbating this downward spiral. So in the past few weeks, we've seen this sort of snowballing threat to add to this of nervous home buyers who are planning to boycott¹³ mortgage payments on incomplete construction projects. In China, you can - you start paying a mortgage basically in most cases while your apartment is still being built, and many are threatening to pull the plug.

FADEL: OK. So a slowing real estate sector; what about the other sectors¹⁴ of the economy?

RUWITCH: Well, in places that have been locked down, like Shanghai, like many other cities, you know, they're suffering. Anecdotally, you know, you hear about restaurants, barbershops, these type of things, small businesses that are being hammered and that have gone under. For multinationals¹⁵, AmCham, the American Chamber¹⁶ of Commerce, has done some polls that suggest people aren't exiting so much as they are just holding off on making new investments in China. You know, on top of that, we've got these dicey global conditions - right? - inflation in the U.S. and in Europe. There's the Ukraine war. There are still shipping¹⁷ woes¹⁸ around the world. A few weeks ago, I was in this town called Huizhou, which is in southern China - it's a manufacturing hub - and met Hu Yuting who owns a factory that makes light fixtures¹⁹ and chandeliers for export to the U.S.

HU YUTING: (Speaking Mandarin).

RUWITCH: So he's saying that he estimates that his business is down about 70% this year. And it's for all the reasons I just mentioned - inflation, lockdowns, shipping hassles, those type of things. He's cut his workforce²⁰ nearly in half.

FADEL: So what does this all mean for China, for the global economy?

RUWITCH: The big question is, you know, how long zero-COVID is going to last. As long as it's in place, average Chinese people are going to face disruptions. They're not going to know when their apartment's going to be open or their neighborhood. The global economy, you know, second - world's second-biggest economy, if it's growing slowly, it's not good for the global economy. And, you know, inflation is at risk.

FADEL: NPR's John Ruwitch in Beijing. Thanks, John.

RUWITCH: Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 exacerbating   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• This pedagogical understretch is exacerbating social inequalities. 这种教学张力不足加重了社会不平等。 来自互联网
• High fertilizer prices are exacerbating the problem. 高涨的肥料价格更加加剧了问题的恶化。 来自互联网

5 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

6 intentional   

adj.故意的，有意（识）的

参考例句：

• Let me assure you that it was not intentional.我向你保证那不是故意的。
• His insult was intentional.他的侮辱是有意的。

7 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 overriding   

a.最主要的

参考例句：

• Development is of overriding importance. 发展是硬道理
• My overriding concern is to raise the standards of state education. 我最关心的是提高国民教育水平。

9 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

10 eradicate   

v.根除，消灭，杜绝

参考例句：

• These insects are very difficult to eradicate.这些昆虫很难根除。
• They are already battling to eradicate illnesses such as malaria and tetanus.他们已经在努力消灭疟疾、破伤风等疾病。

11 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

12 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

13 boycott   

n./v.(联合)抵制，拒绝参与

参考例句：

• We put the production under a boycott.我们联合抵制该商品。
• The boycott lasts a year until the Victoria board permitsreturn.这个抗争持续了一年直到维多利亚教育局妥协为止。

14 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

15 multinationals   

跨国公司( multinational的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• These local companies are only small fry compared with the huge multinationals. 同那些跨国公司比，这些当地的公司不过是小鱼小虾。
• Some people believe that the multinationals have too much power. 有人认为跨国公司的权力太大了。

16 chamber   

n.房间，寝室；会议厅；议院；会所

参考例句：

• For many,the dentist's surgery remains a torture chamber.对许多人来说，牙医的治疗室一直是间受刑室。
• The chamber was ablaze with light.会议厅里灯火辉煌。

17 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

18 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

19 fixtures   

（房屋等的）固定装置( fixture的名词复数 )； 如（浴盆、抽水马桶）； 固定在某位置的人或物； （定期定点举行的）体育活动

参考例句：

• The insurance policy covers the building and any fixtures contained therein. 保险单为这座大楼及其中所有的设施保了险。
• The fixtures had already been sold and the sum divided. 固定设备已经卖了，钱也分了。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

20 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。