美国国家公共电台 NPR--With 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, is the U.S. in a recession?

With 2 consecutive¹ quarters of negative growth, is the U.S. in a recession?

Transcript²

NPR's Leila Fadel talks to Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, about whether the U.S. is in a recession, and how people are being affected³ by inflation.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

Is a recession coming? Is it already here? This week, there's been a lot of back and forth⁴ about that between politicians and economists⁵. In a nutshell, it's not clear whether the U.S. is experiencing the formal definition of a recession. What is clear, people are feeling the pain of rising costs. Bret Heilig is a solar contractor⁶ in New York. He says getting parts for his business now costs four times its previous price.

BRET HEILIG: We're trying to buy this breaker for six months and ordinary channels just kept saying it'll be in in two weeks. And, you know, finally we went around looking for second-hand⁷ dealers⁸, and we found people who anticipated this and stocked up on these breakers knowing that they were going to go for what turned out to be four times the normal asking price.

FADEL: And Chris Morrison is a firefighter in Napa Valley. He says he's been working overtime⁹ just to make ends meet. He also had to sell his truck and buy a new car because of fuel prices.

CHRIS MORRISON: It's not uncommon¹⁰ for me to work 96 hours straight or 72 hours straight. I don't feel like I could keep going at this rate.

FADEL: Joining me to talk about what's going on with the economy is Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Thank you for being on the program. Good morning.

RAPHAEL BOSTIC: Good morning, Leila. Good to be here.

FADEL: So let's start off with that central question that everyone's arguing over. We've now seen two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Is this country in a recession?

BOSTIC: Well, I don't think the country is in a recession. But on some level, that's not the right question. I think the right question is whether current economic conditions are creating hardship.

FADEL: Yeah.

BOSTIC: And here, I mean, you know, I think the two spots you just ran make the answer clear that there are a lot of people hurting. And because of that, we really need to address the high levels of inflation and get this economy back into a more stable and sustainable situation.

FADEL: And how is that done? I mean, the Fed hiked interest rates again this week to try to get inflation in line. Is - in your view, is that the right move?

BOSTIC: Well, you know, inflation is really driven by an imbalance between demand and supply. When we increase interest rates, we reduce the demand, and that will bring it closer to the levels of supply that are being met. But we're - there's still more work to be done. And so while what we're doing is, I think, appropriate, we're going to be watching the supply dynamics¹¹ and - to see whether they ease up. And we'll hopefully start to get that balance, which will help bring inflation down.

FADEL: When you say there's more work to be done, what does that look like?

BOSTIC: Well, you know, it's hard to say. The - you know, the pandemic has been very unpredictable in terms of how the economy has responded. So we're going to have to - I'm convinced we're going to have to do more in terms of interest rate moves. But exactly how much and in what trajectory¹² will depend on how the economy evolves over the next several weeks and months. We're going to get a lot of data in the next two months before our next meeting, and that will give us a good indication of what the right course of action is likely to be.

FADEL: Like you said, people are struggling, but there's a lot that's unique about this money. I mean, right now there's job growth. Could these rate hikes hurt that growth?

BOSTIC: They could. You know, one of the things that I've been encouraged by is actually how strong the job growth has been, which suggests to me there's a lot of momentum¹³ in the economy. And so we can still continue to see people get jobs, get good incomes, stay employed as we try to reduce the imbalance between demand and supply. If that goes well, I think we can get inflation under control while at the same time minimizing the number of families that have really bad outcomes in terms of losing their jobs and coming closer to precariousness¹⁴.

FADEL: Right. Right now, obviously, the White House doesn't like the word recession, especially with the midterms coming up. Meanwhile, administration opponents, critics have a vested interest in capitalizing and blaming the White House for the weakening economy. But let's get away from the noise of Washington. When - with all this talk about recession, do you worry at all that it could cause recessionary behavior, less consumer confidence, people spending less? I mean, could it just bring about what everybody's talking about?

BOSTIC: You know, we talk about that a lot in my building, and my team and I are not seeing that in the field right now. We hear people asking, so are we in a recession? And there's a lot of concern there. But the individual experiences of business leaders and families - or many families has been, you know, we're still able to find jobs. I'm still able to sell goods. There's a lot of demand out there. And so I think we're a ways from a recession, and there is this reality. I do share the same concern, though, and we're going to be watching very closely through our surveys and other connections to make sure that we understand if the concerns about a recession start to translate into behavioral changes. But we're not seeing that right now.

FADEL: Raphael Bostic is president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Thank you so much for being on the program.

BOSTIC: It's been a pleasure - look forward to next time.

1 consecutive   

adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的

参考例句：

• It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
• The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

4 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 contractor   

n.订约人，承包人，收缩肌

参考例句：

• The Tokyo contractor was asked to kick $ 6000 back as commission.那个东京的承包商被要求退还6000美元作为佣金。
• The style of house the contractor builds depends partly on the lay of the land.承包商所建房屋的式样，有几分要看地势而定。

7 second-hand   

adj.用过的，旧的，二手的

参考例句：

• I got this book by chance at a second-hand bookshop.我赶巧在一家旧书店里买到这本书。
• They will put all these second-hand goods up for sale.他们将把这些旧货全部公开出售。

8 dealers   

n.商人( dealer的名词复数 )；贩毒者；毒品贩子；发牌者

参考例句：

• There was fast bidding between private collectors and dealers. 私人收藏家和交易商急速竞相喊价。
• The police were corrupt and were operating in collusion with the drug dealers. 警察腐败，与那伙毒品贩子内外勾结。

9 overtime   

adj.超时的，加班的；adv.加班地

参考例句：

• They are working overtime to finish the work.为了完成任务他们正在加班加点地工作。
• He was paid for the overtime he worked.他领到了加班费。

10 uncommon   

adj.罕见的，非凡的，不平常的

参考例句：

• Such attitudes were not at all uncommon thirty years ago.这些看法在30年前很常见。
• Phil has uncommon intelligence.菲尔智力超群。

11 dynamics   

n.力学，动力学，动力，原动力；动态

参考例句：

• In order to succeed,you must master complicated knowledge of dynamics.要取得胜利，你必须掌握很复杂的动力学知识。
• Dynamics is a discipline that cannot be mastered without extensive practice.动力学是一门不做大量习题就不能掌握的学科。

12 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

13 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

14 precariousness   

参考例句：

• The precariousness is further increased by self-experiences in the aforementioned marginal situation. 在上述边际情况下自身经验会更进一步增加这种不确定感。 来自互联网
• These reports have revealed to the insurgents the precariousness of their position. 这些报导使叛乱士兵知道了他们的危险境地。 来自互联网