美国国家公共电台 NPR--How Russia's invasion of Ukraine is reshaping the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

How Russia's invasion of Ukraine is reshaping the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

Transcript¹

NPR's A Martinez talks to Paul Stronski of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how Russia's war with Ukraine is reshaping the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

New clashes are reported this morning between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. Fighting yesterday left around 100 dead. In recent decades, the two former Soviet² republics have seen numerous confrontations³ and two full-scale wars. Russia brokered⁴ the cease-fire that ended the last conflict in 2020. But Vladimir Putin's Ukraine offensive changes the dynamic, raising concerns as to how much leverage⁵ Russia can bring over the Caucasus region. For more insight, we've called on Paul Stronski of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He joins us now from Brussels. Paul, what led to the latest flare-up between the two countries?

PAUL STRONSKI: Well, we've seen a uptick in fighting all over the summer. We've actually seen an uptick in fighting between the two countries since Russia launched its intervention⁶ and its war in Ukraine. What I think is most interesting is just simply the timing⁷. Russia is Armenia's formal ally. But Russia's stretched. Russia got routed in Ukraine just this week. And the timing of this is interesting because Russia really cannot help Armenia at this very moment. Russia is stretched. Russia has declared that it has launched a cease-fire, but the fighting continues despite this new brokered agreement. So I think the timing, the fact that Russia is preoccupied⁸, certainly led to what looks like an Azerbaijani offensive at this time.

MART?NEZ: Now, historically, the core of the tension has often been the disputed region, Nagorno-Karabakh. Can you remind us why that's contested territory and what's been different about this week's fighting?

STRONSKI: So Nagorno-Karabakh is an ethnically⁹ Armenian enclave that is officially part of Azerbaijan. It tried to break away from Azerbaijan in the late Soviet era. That led to the first war. Armenia won the first war. It had control over the Nagorno-Karabakh and several surrounding regions of Azerbaijan. The renewed war last - in 2020 reversed that scenario¹⁰. Azerbaijan won it. And what we're seeing now is - whereas in the sort of past 30 years, the fighting has been over this disputed territory, now we see the fighting occurring right directly on the state - international state border of Armenia and Azerbaijan. And so the risks of a direct state-to-state conflict are rising. And what we even saw just in the last few days is actually attacks inside and shelling inside cities inside Armenia, not just along the border.

MART?NEZ: You mentioned how, at least for the moment, Russia is stretched thin. But aside from that, how much influence do they still have in the region?

STRONSKI: Well, I think Russia's war in Ukraine has alienated¹¹ both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is seen as trying to align¹² itself more closely with the West. Europe is deeply interested in Azerbaijani energy. So there's sort of been a decoupling of Russia and Azerbaijan. And just like we've seen threats to Ukrainian sovereignty from prominent Russian propagandists, we've seen those similar threats, doubts about Azerbaijani history, about Azerbaijani sovereignty. And then what we see in Armenia is we've seen just a deterioration¹³ of relations. Russia is Armenia's most important ally, but Armenians don't feel that Russia gave it enough support in the last war. And I think also seeing Russia's difficulties in Ukraine, its military difficulties, really raise questions for Armenians about whether Russia is even capable of helping¹⁴ them. And so we've sort of seen that this war has raised threat perceptions for the Armenians and their ability to depend on Russia, and it's also just alienated everyone in the region.

MART?NEZ: Secretary of State Antony Blinken reached out to the leaders of both nations, urging them to reach a peaceful settlement. Are there fears that these clashes could escalate¹⁵ into another war?

STRONSKI: I think there certainly are. We are seeing - Azerbaijan seems to have the upper hand right now. It is wanting to impose a - some sort of a peace deal on Armenia. And I think it's using Russia as distraction¹⁶. It's using the West distraction as well. We are focused on Ukraine to try to change the facts on the ground and get some sort of a longer term deal, including access to a tiny little bit of Azerbaijani territory that is separated from the country by Armenia. And so I think the stakes and the chances for war are rising. And it's also because the rest of the world is very busy and very preoccupied and not spending a whole lot of attention on this area.

MART?NEZ: And one more thing because I know Azerbaijan is a major energy producer, and they've said that they'll increase some much-needed gas exports to Europe by 30%. Considering how much Europe is trying to wean itself off of Russian energy, how does the current situation complicate¹⁷ that?

STRONSKI: The Caucasus region is one of the few areas for energy exports out of the former Soviet space that does not go through Russia, but it is in a very volatile¹⁸ area. Those pipelines¹⁹ and those routes, they run from Azerbaijan into Georgia and then out to Turkey to the rest of the world and Europe. But we see Georgia is not a very stable place either. Russia has troops on the ground in the breakaway regions there. So it's - you know, Russia has a lot of leverage. Russia does still have the ability to sort of impact this area. Russia certainly doesn't want closer relations between Azerbaijan and the West. And it is, you know, in a very difficult location. And the instability there could impact Europe's desire to get new energy.

MART?NEZ: Paul Stronski is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Paul, thanks.

STRONSKI: Thanks.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

3 confrontations   

n.对抗，对抗的事物( confrontation的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• At times, this potential has escalated into actual confrontations. 有时，这一矛盾升级为实际的对抗。 来自英汉非文学 - 行政法
• These confrontations and uncertainties were bing played out for the first time on a global scale. 所有这一切对抗和不稳定，第一次在全球范围内得到充分的表演。 来自辞典例句

4 brokered   

adj.由权力经纪人安排（或控制）的v.做掮客（或中人等）( broker的过去式和过去分词 )；作为权力经纪人进行谈判；以中间人等身份安排…

参考例句：

• a peace plan brokered by the UN 由联合国出面协商的和平计划
• Your husband brokered the deal to go in, transfrer the assets and get our man out. 你丈夫后来插了一脚，把生意都抢了过去，我们的人也被挤了出来。 来自电影对白

5 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

6 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

7 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

8 preoccupied   

adj.全神贯注的，入神的；被抢先占有的；心事重重的v.占据（某人）思想，使对…全神贯注，使专心于( preoccupy的过去式)

参考例句：

• He was too preoccupied with his own thoughts to notice anything wrong. 他只顾想着心事，没注意到有什么不对。
• The question of going to the Mount Tai preoccupied his mind. 去游泰山的问题盘踞在他心头。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 ethnically   

adv.人种上，民族上

参考例句：

• Ethnically, the Yuan Empire comprised most of modern China's ethnic groups. 元朝的民族成分包括现今中国绝大多数民族。 来自汉英非文学 - 白皮书
• Russia is ethnically relatively homogeneous. 俄罗斯是个民族成分相对单一的国家。 来自辞典例句

10 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

11 alienated   

adj.感到孤独的，不合群的v.使疏远( alienate的过去式和过去分词 )；使不友好；转让；让渡（财产等）

参考例句：

• His comments have alienated a lot of young voters. 他的言论使许多年轻选民离他而去。
• The Prime Minister's policy alienated many of her followers. 首相的政策使很多拥护她的人疏远了她。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 align   

vt.使成一线，结盟，调节；vi.成一线，结盟

参考例句：

• Align the ruler and the middle of the paper.使尺子与纸张的中部成一条直线。
• There are signs that the prime minister is aligning himself with the liberals.有迹象表明首相正在与自由党人结盟。

13 deterioration   

n.退化；恶化；变坏

参考例句：

• Mental and physical deterioration both occur naturally with age. 随着年龄的增长，心智和体力自然衰退。
• The car's bodywork was already showing signs of deterioration. 这辆车的车身已经显示出了劣化迹象。

14 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

15 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

16 distraction   

n.精神涣散，精神不集中，消遣，娱乐

参考例句：

• Total concentration is required with no distractions.要全神贯注，不能有丝毫分神。
• Their national distraction is going to the disco.他们的全民消遣就是去蹦迪。

17 complicate   

vt.使复杂化，使混乱，使难懂

参考例句：

• There is no need to complicate matters.没有必要使问题复杂化。
• These events will greatly complicate the situation.这些事件将使局势变得极其复杂。

18 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

19 pipelines   

管道( pipeline的名词复数 )； 输油管道； 在考虑（或规划、准备） 中； 在酿中

参考例句：

• The oil is carried to the oil refinery by pipelines. 石油通过输油管输送到炼油厂。
• The oil carried in pipelines. 石油用管道输送。