美国国家公共电台 NPR--Ukraine made recent battlefield gains. How will Putin retaliate?

Ukraine made recent battlefield gains. How will Putin retaliate¹?

Transcript²

Ukraine's battlefield victories are a reason for celebration. But could it could also usher³ in another dangerous phase — with Russia's President Vladimir Putin lashing⁴ out in other ways.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Ukraine's army has recently recaptured a lot of territory from Russia. They also have analysts⁵ asking a question, not for the first time, what happens if Russian President Vladimir Putin feels cornered? NPR's Michele Kelemen reports.

MICHELE KELEMEN, BYLINE⁶: A former deputy secretary general of NATO, Rose Gottemoeller, has been talking to fellow nuclear experts lately about the war in Ukraine.

ROSE GOTTEMOELLER: Now the feeling is that Putin, when he's cornered, may react by resort. And particularly, the concern is about nuclear weapons.

KELEMEN: Gottemoeller, who lectures at Stanford University, points to a couple of possible scenarios⁷ involving smaller tactical nuclear weapons.

GOTTEMOELLER: For example, detonating a single weapon over the Black Sea with the goal of terrorizing the Ukrainians and the rest of the world and trying to get the Ukrainians to capitulate. Another option might be to use a nuclear weapon against a military facility inside Ukraine.

KELEMEN: Rose Gottemoeller isn't suggesting this is likely. She says there's a long-standing taboo⁸ against the first use of such weapons. And the Russians like to point out that the U.S. is the only country that has used nuclear weapons - in Japan in World War II. But she says the Biden administration has to consider the risks. Mary Glantz, a former State Department official, doubts Putin would resort to such measures.

MARY GLANTZ: I don't think he's that desperate. I don't think his regime is in danger. And that's what he cares most about - is himself and his regime. So I think he's a rational actor. He's not going to go for nuclear weapons or something that would really escalate⁹ this conflict.

KELEMEN: Russia is escalating¹⁰ in other ways. Russian forces have been hitting critical civilian¹¹ infrastructure¹² this week, including a dam in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's hometown. And Glantz, who's with the U.S. Institute of Peace, says Russia could inflict¹³ more pain on the Ukrainian people. As for Russia's battlefield losses, she believes Putin can spin that at home.

GLANTZ: I think he has a lot of room for maneuver¹⁴. Putin has control over the information space in Russia. The majority of Russians don't really seem to care. We saw one poll that said the majority of them think that he should launch a new offensive. And the same poll said that the majority also think that it would be OK if he just gave up and left Ukraine.

KELEMEN: So analysts are wondering what Putin wants now. Stanford's Gottemoeller says the Kremlin leader has already failed in his bid to recreate, as she puts it, a Slavic heartland of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.

GOTTEMOELLER: If Putin is understanding the extent of this failure, he must be in a pretty bad mood. But because of the information bubble he's in, I'm not sure he does recognize the extent of this failure.

KELEMEN: Even Russia's goal of controlling and annexing¹⁵ the Donbas and southern Ukraine seem increasingly in doubt. With the help of Western weapons and training, the Ukrainians are pushing the Russians back. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has said his forces won't stop until they've also reclaimed¹⁶ Crimea, which the Russians captured back in 2014. Neither side seems ready to negotiate. And the U.S. strategy is to keep arming Ukraine. State Department spokesperson Ned Price puts it this way.

NED PRICE: We want our Ukrainian partners to be in the most advantageous¹⁷ position possible if and when a negotiating table emerges.

KELEMEN: He says Ukraine's hand is stronger with, quote, "every inch of territory that is defended or retaken." What's less clear is how Putin will respond. He says so far, Russia has been looking for lifelines, meeting with China's president for diplomatic support and turning to Iran and North Korea for military supplies. Michele Kelemen, NPR News, the State Department.

(SOUNDBITE OF TOMMY GUERRERO'S "THE SAME CONFUSION AND HOPE")

1 retaliate   

v.报复，反击

参考例句：

• He sought every opportunity to retaliate against his enemy.他找机会向他的敌人反击。
• It is strictly forbidden to retaliate against the quality inspectors.严禁对质量检验人员进行打击报复。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 usher   

n.带位员，招待员；vt.引导，护送；vi.做招待，担任引座员

参考例句：

• The usher seated us in the front row.引座员让我们在前排就座。
• They were quickly ushered away.他们被迅速领开。

4 lashing   

n.鞭打；痛斥；大量；许多v.鞭打( lash的现在分词 )；煽动；紧系；怒斥

参考例句：

• The speaker was lashing the crowd. 演讲人正在煽动人群。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The rain was lashing the windows. 雨急打着窗子。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

6 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

7 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

8 taboo   

n.禁忌，禁止接近，禁止使用；adj.禁忌的；v.禁忌，禁制，禁止

参考例句：

• The rude words are taboo in ordinary conversation.这些粗野的字眼在日常谈话中是禁忌的。
• Is there a taboo against sex before marriage in your society?在你们的社会里，婚前的性行为犯禁吗？

9 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

10 escalating   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的现在分词 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• The cost of living is escalating. 生活费用在迅速上涨。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The cost of living is escalating in the country. 这个国家的生活费用在上涨。 来自辞典例句

11 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

12 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

13 inflict   

vt.(on)把…强加给，使遭受，使承担

参考例句：

• Don't inflict your ideas on me.不要把你的想法强加于我。
• Don't inflict damage on any person.不要伤害任何人。

14 maneuver   

n.策略[pl.]演习；v.(巧妙)控制；用策略

参考例句：

• All the fighters landed safely on the airport after the military maneuver.在军事演习后，所有战斗机都安全降落在机场上。
• I did get her attention with this maneuver.我用这个策略确实引起了她的注意。

15 annexing   

并吞( annex的现在分词 )； 兼并； 强占； 并吞（国家、地区等）

参考例句：

• In addition to annexing territory, they exacted huge indemnities. 割地之外，又索去了巨大的赔款。
• He succeeded in annexing all the property of Hindley's and the Linton's. 他成功的占有了亨得利和林顿的所有财产。

16 reclaimed   

adj.再生的；翻造的；收复的；回收的v.开拓( reclaim的过去式和过去分词 )；要求收回；从废料中回收（有用的材料）；挽救

参考例句：

• Many sufferers have been reclaimed from a dependence on alcohol. 许多嗜酒成癖的受害者已经被挽救过来。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They reclaimed him from his evil ways. 他们把他从邪恶中挽救出来。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

17 advantageous   

adj.有利的；有帮助的

参考例句：

• Injections of vitamin C are obviously advantageous.注射维生素C显然是有利的。
• You're in a very advantageous position.你处于非常有利的地位。