美国国家公共电台 NPR--Inflation is coming down but the Fed isn't about to declare victory just yet

Inflation is coming down but the Fed isn't about to declare victory just yet

Transcript¹

The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its crackdown on inflation by raising interest rates, but only by a quarter percentage point. That would be the smallest rate hike since last March.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

Inflation is coming down, but the watchdogs at the Federal Reserve aren't ready to declare a victory just yet.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Instead, the Fed is expected to order another boost in interest rates today. The central bank is trying to hold down inflation. Today's rate hike is expected to be smaller than the last six.

MART?NEZ: NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now. Scott, there's been some encouraging inflation news lately. So what's the Fed looking at as it makes its decision today?

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE²: That's right. Most of the recent data has been encouraging. After hitting a four-decade high last summer, inflation has come down a good bit. It's still higher than the Fed would like, but it's moving in the right direction. Wage gains have also cooled off despite the tight job market. And that's reassuring³ to the Fed, which worries that if wages go up too fast, that could put more upward pressure on prices. Economist⁴ Aaron Sojourner⁵, who's with the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, says this gradual slowdown in both price increases and wage increases is pretty much exactly what the Fed wants to see.

AARON SOJOURNER: If you were writing the description of what a good resolution to the crises we've been in looks like, this is what it looks like.

HORSLEY: But the Fed is not celebrating just yet. Officials say they are encouraged by what they're seeing, but warn we're not yet out of the inflationary woods.

MART?NEZ: All right. So what does that mean for interest rates?

HORSLEY: The Fed is almost sure to raise rates by a quarter percentage point today. That would be the smallest increase since last March. After raising rates really aggressively last year, Fed policymakers are now shifting to more of a go-slow approach so they can take the temperature of the economy and see where they want to go from here. Now, financial markets are betting the Fed is going to pivot⁶ pretty soon and actually start cutting interest rates. That's one reason the stock markets enjoyed a big rally in recent weeks. But Fed officials have said repeatedly that's not going to happen. Here's Fed Governor Chris Waller speaking a couple of weeks ago.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

CHRISTOPHER WALLER: The market has a very optimistic view that inflation is just going to melt away. We have a different view. Inflation is not going to just miraculously⁷ melt away. It's going to be a slower, harder slog to get inflation down. And therefore, we have to keep rates higher for longer.

HORSLEY: Remember, just a couple of years ago, it was the Fed that thought inflation would melt away on its own once the pandemic eased and supply chains came untangled. Of course, those price hikes proved to be larger and longer lasting⁸ than the central bank expected. And Waller says they don't want to make that mistake and get head faked again.

MART?NEZ: But is there a chance that they're making a different mistake, the opposite mistake, by being too conservative?

HORSLEY: Yes. And that's why the Fed is being cautious now and gradually downsizing these rate hikes. The challenge that Fed policymakers are wrestling with is that monetary⁹ policy works kind of like the shower in my creaky, old house. You know, you turn the knobs, but the water temperature does change right away. And if you're not careful, you can overcorrect. And then suddenly, whew, you get hit with this icy blast. You know, the Fed has been turning the cold water tap on the economy with these rate hikes now for the better part of a year. And we're only now starting to feel the effects. Consumer spending is slowing. Job growth has cooled a little bit. Ideally, inflation will settle gently back down to the Fed's 2% target. Turn the knobs too far, though, and we wind up shivering through a painful recession.

MART?NEZ: Cold showers are not bad, Scott. They wake me up. That's NPR's Scott Horsley. Scott, thanks.

HORSLEY: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 reassuring   

a.使人消除恐惧和疑虑的，使人放心的

参考例句：

• He gave her a reassuring pat on the shoulder. 他轻拍了一下她的肩膀让她放心。
• With a reassuring pat on her arm, he left. 他鼓励地拍了拍她的手臂就离开了。

4 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

5 sojourner   

n.旅居者，寄居者

参考例句：

• The sojourner has been in Wales for two weeks. 那个寄居者在威尔士已经逗留了两个星期。 来自互联网
• A sojourner or a hired servant shall not eat of it. 出12:45寄居的、和雇工人、都不可吃。 来自互联网

6 pivot   

v.在枢轴上转动；装枢轴，枢轴；adj.枢轴的

参考例句：

• She is the central pivot of creation and represents the feminine aspect in all things.她是创造的中心枢轴，表现出万物的女性面貌。
• If a spring is present,the hand wheel will pivot on the spring.如果有弹簧，手轮的枢轴会装在弹簧上。

7 miraculously   

ad.奇迹般地

参考例句：

• He had been miraculously saved from almost certain death. 他奇迹般地从死亡线上获救。
• A schoolboy miraculously survived a 25 000-volt electric shock. 一名男学生在遭受2.5 万伏的电击后奇迹般地活了下来。

8 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

9 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。