美国国家公共电台 NPR--The latest data on inflation may reveal a confusing story

The latest data on inflation may reveal a confusing story

Transcript¹

The Labor² Department reports Tuesday on consumer prices for January. Inflation looks better when compared to prices from a year ago. But looking at prices from a month ago, it is less encouraging.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

We got a new report on inflation this morning, and the story it tells is somewhat confusing. Inflation looks modestly better when we compare prices from a year ago, but looking at prices from a month ago is less encouraging. That suggests there's still a long way to go to get back to stable prices. NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now. Good morning, Scott.

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE³: Good morning, Leila.

FADEL: Scott, inflation's been coming down steadily⁴ since hitting a four-decade high last summer. What happened last month?

HORSLEY: It's kind of a mixed bag. The annual inflation rate is still cooling off. It was 6.4% in January, down slightly from 6.5% in December and well down from the 9-plus percent inflation rate we saw last summer. But when you zoom⁵ in and you look at month-to-month price changes, it's not really a straight-line picture. Gasoline prices, for example, which helped to keep a lid on inflation in December, bounced back up in January. Pump prices have come down again in the first couple weeks of February. But Devin Gladden of AAA says we can't necessarily count on falling gasoline prices to limit inflation in the months to come.

DEVIN GLADDEN: We are entering the higher-priced spring and summer driving season, and so drivers should brace⁶ for that. It will likely be a volatile⁷ year given how much uncertainty⁸ remains⁹ around the economy.

HORSLEY: And of course, gas prices are the most visible sign of that volatility¹⁰. But there are others. Natural gas prices were significantly higher in January, and food and housing costs were up, too. So the road back to price stability looks like it's going to be longer and bumpier¹¹ than most of us would like.

FADEL: How much longer?

HORSLEY: You know, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week he does think we will see a significant drop in inflation this year, but he warned it'll likely be sometime next year before we get back down to the Fed's inflation target of just 2%. You know, housing costs are expected to start falling before too long, but the Fed is keeping a close eye on the cost of other services, things like haircuts and auto¹² repair, which tend to be stickier than goods prices. And Powell doesn't think inflation is just going to magically fade away on its own.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

JEROME POWELL: There's been an expectation that it'll go away quickly and painlessly, and I don't think that's at all guaranteed. That's not the base case. The base case for me is that it will take some time, and we'll have to do more rate increases, and then we'll have to look around and see whether we've done enough.

HORSLEY: The Fed has already raised interest rates by 4 1/2 percentage points since last March, and Fed policies hinted in December that they expect a couple more quarter-point rate hikes before they're done.

FADEL: So we're coming up on the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has had ripple¹³ effects throughout the global economy. How has that affected¹⁴ inflation, and what does it mean going forward?

HORSLEY: Yeah, both the invasion itself and then the sanctions that were leveled against Russia in response to the invasion have been big drivers of inflation. Food and energy costs both soared last year. That's a reminder¹⁵ that, as Powell says, it's a risky¹⁶ world out there, and even the best laid economic plans can be upended by geopolitical shocks or natural disasters. In terms of inflation math, though, that one-year anniversary does mean that there's a new higher benchmark in prices. So when we look at prices in, say, March and April and May, we're going to be comparing them to those post-invasion peaks of a year ago. That's going to make inflation look less severe, even though, in some cases, we might still be talking about prices that are painfully high.

FADEL: NPR's Scott Horsley, thank you so much.

HORSLEY: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

3 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

4 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

5 zoom   

n.急速上升；v.突然扩大，急速上升

参考例句：

• The airplane's zoom carried it above the clouds.飞机的陡直上升使它飞到云层之上。
• I live near an airport and the zoom of passing planes can be heard night and day.我住在一个飞机场附近，昼夜都能听到飞机飞过的嗡嗡声。

6 brace   

n. 支柱,曲柄,大括号; v. 绷紧,顶住,(为困难或坏事)做准备

参考例句：

• My daughter has to wear a brace on her teeth. 我的女儿得戴牙套以矫正牙齿。
• You had better brace yourself for some bad news. 有些坏消息,你最好做好准备。

7 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

8 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

9 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

10 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

11 bumpier   

adj.困难重重的( bumpy的比较级 )；崎岖的；（使） 处境艰难；气流不稳的

参考例句：

12 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

13 ripple   

n.涟波，涟漪，波纹，粗钢梳；vt.使...起涟漪，使起波纹； vi.呈波浪状，起伏前进

参考例句：

• The pebble made a ripple on the surface of the lake.石子在湖面上激起一个涟漪。
• The small ripple split upon the beach.小小的涟漪卷来，碎在沙滩上。

14 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

15 reminder   

n.提醒物，纪念品；暗示，提示

参考例句：

• I have had another reminder from the library.我又收到图书馆的催还单。
• It always took a final reminder to get her to pay her share of the rent.总是得发给她一份最后催缴通知，她才付应该交的房租。

16 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。