美国国家公共电台 NPR--Between July and September, U.S. could run out of cash to pay its bills

Between July and September, U.S. could run out of cash to pay its bills

Transcript¹

Congressional Budget Office says if the debt ceiling isn't raised, the U.S. may run out of cash to pay its bills within months. NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to David Wessel of the Brookings Institution.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

There's this old saying that there are three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies and statistics. Possibly with this warning in mind, Congress staffs a nonpartisan budget office whose job is to come up with budget numbers that are credible². And the CBO has some thoughts about the federal debt and borrowing in years to come. First, this country is on track to borrow a lot more than it already has. And second, we're growing closer to default because House Republicans have so far declined to pay the bills. David Wessel joins us next. He directs the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution. Welcome back, sir.

DAVID WESSEL: Good morning.

INSKEEP: OK. So first, if present trends continue, if we keep taxing and spending at the amount that we are, how much is the country on track to borrow?

WESSEL: So the Congressional Budget Office says over the next decade, the government will spend $20 trillion more than it takes in in taxes. And the thing that's a little bit frightening is that that's 20% more borrowing than they predicted last May, when they did their last report. And there are two reasons for this. One is Congress passed a lot of big-ticket spending bills last year. And second, CBO expects the overall economy to do worse than it had anticipated and interest rates to be higher, and those interest rates are a big factor. The interest tab on the federal debt soars as the government borrows more and interest rates go up.

INSKEEP: I guess we should underline the danger here. We have found out in the last few years that the federal government can borrow a lot more than anybody maybe thought they could, without any particular damage to the economy, but there's some point at which it becomes hard to make the monthly payments. Is that the deal?

WESSEL: Yeah. The thing is, we don't know how much the government can borrow before it runs into trouble. The debt has risen from about 35% of the GDP, the overall size of the economy, which - before the global financial crisis. It was 80% of GDP before the COVID pandemic. And because of all the pandemic spending, it's about 100% of GDP today. And that's levels we haven't seen since World War II. Now, there are some people who predicted, at this level, we would surely have had a financial crisis or an economic calamity³, but we haven't. The U.S. Treasury⁴ hasn't had any significant trouble borrowing that money. And interest rates on 10-year Treasury debt, though higher than they were a year ago, are still low by historical standards.

So there's no sign now that government borrowing is causing a problem. But CBO projects that we're on track to raise the federal debt to 195% of GDP over the next 30 years. That's really a lot. And although there's a lot of uncertainty⁵ about the numbers, the government clearly is on an unsustainable course. The debt can't grow faster than the economy forever. So at some point, Congress is going to have to do something about taxes and spending.

INSKEEP: Well, let's talk that through because we're in the middle of this debt ceiling debate once again, where House Republicans are saying they will not pay the country's bills unless they get a negotiation⁶ over spending. And there's a limited amount of time, according to the CBO. We've got a few months to straighten this out, or the United States is not going to be able to pay its bills. But in the meantime, this is what seems to be on the table. Republicans are saying, we want to drastically bring down the deficit⁷, but also saying, we don't want to touch popular programs like Social Security and Medicare. Is it possible to do both of those things?

WESSEL: I don't think so, not without a lot of tax increases. What the CBO report says that outlays⁸ for Social Security and Medicare are going to grow a lot over the next decade because we have a lot more old people, and health care spending is rising rapidly. Everything else is going to be a smaller share of the budget. So it's really hard to reach budget nirvana without doing something on the tax or spending side on Social Security or Medicare.

INSKEEP: Budget nirvana - that's what you guys study over there at the Hutchins Center, is that it?

WESSEL: Absolutely. We're in favor of it.

INSKEEP: (Laughter) That's good. David, it's a pleasure talking with you. Thank you so much.

WESSEL: You're welcome.

INSKEEP: David Wessel at the Brookings Institution.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

3 calamity   

n.灾害，祸患，不幸事件

参考例句：

• Even a greater natural calamity cannot daunt us. 再大的自然灾害也压不垮我们。
• The attack on Pearl Harbor was a crushing calamity.偷袭珍珠港(对美军来说)是一场毁灭性的灾难。

4 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

5 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

6 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

7 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

8 outlays   

v.支出，费用( outlay的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• They report substantial slashes in this year's defense outlays. 他们报道今年度国防经费的大量削减。 来自辞典例句
• For MU, there were no upfront risks or cash outlays. 对摩托罗拉大学而言，没有风险或现金费用。 来自互联网