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美国国家公共电台 NPR--Poll: Biden's standing improves, while Trump slumps with Republican voters

时间:2023-11-17 01:02来源:互联网 提供网友:nan   字体: [ ]
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Poll: Biden's standing1 improves, while Trump2 slumps3 with Republican voters

Transcript4

President Biden is seeing his highest approval ratings in almost a year, while former President Donald Trump, who is hoping to take the job back, is getting his worst scores among potential Republican voters in years, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.

The survey — conducted last week, after the president's State of the Union address — of more than 1,300 adults and about 1,200 registered voters comes as the 2024 Republican presidential primary is heating up. And there are clear pictures emerging of who potential Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis voters are, as a majority of potential Republican voters continue to say they would be better off with someone other than Trump at the top of the ticket.

DeSantis, at this point, is at least a co-front-runner for the nomination5. His support skews more toward Republicans with college degrees, who make more money and live in cities and suburbs, as opposed to Trump's more blue-collar, rural appeal. Their distinct lanes could make for a protracted6 GOP primary if DeSantis ultimately decides to get into the race.

Biden is widely expected to seek reelection despite his age. At 80, he is the oldest person to serve as president. As inflation stretches Americans' wallets and after the chaotic7 withdrawal8 from Afghanistan, he has struggled with middling approval ratings.

He bottomed out at 36% in July of last year, as independents soured on him, and Democrats9 were unenthusiastic about his presidency10. But Biden has made steady improvement since then, and this month, he is up to 46% approval with all respondents and an even higher 49% with registered voters.

That's good news for the president. The 46% is his highest mark since March of last year, and he hasn't been at 49% since the Afghanistan withdrawal in August of 2021. He's benefiting in the survey from a rebound11 with Democrats, and in this hyperpartisan atmosphere, a president needs his base shored up.

One warning sign, however, is that Biden still is lagging with independents — just 36% of them approve of the job he's doing.

Improved confidence in Biden for 2024

For months, Democrats have not been sure that Biden was their best shot at winning in 2024.

Lots of surveys, including Marist's, have shown that members of Biden's own party think he's too old and they'd have a better chance of winning the White House with someone else, although there's been little agreement on who that should be.

Back in November — right before the midterms — 54% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they had a better chance with someone else.

That's changed in this survey. Now, 50% say they have the best chance with Biden, while 45% think the best chance lies with a different candidate.

The biggest shifts are coming from whites without college degrees, those who make less than $50,000 a year, voters under 45 and women who live in small cities or the suburbs. All are key target demographic groups, who helped Biden win in 2020. They're the kinds of voters he peeled away from Trump, who made inroads with these groups in 2016.

Why is this happening?

Let's start with the fact that these are Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, so they're at least open to Biden's message. But three potential reasons:

Democrats had better than expected midterm elections.

Biden's State of the Union address had to give at least some of these potential Democratic voters more confidence in his ability to carry the message forward.

This is likely also part of the normal coalescing12 around a nominee13, as it becomes more and more apparent that Biden will run for reelection.

What about other Democrats?

Biden's favorability rating with Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents stands at 83% favorable, 13% unfavorable, or +70.

That's significantly better than Vice14 President Harris, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who the poll also tested.

Buttigieg: 63%/12% (+51) with 25% unsure. This represents a net 10-point improvement for Buttigieg since September 2019 during his run for president when 36% were unsure. He also gets a 48%/19% score with Democratic-leaning independents, showing he's far-less disliked with the group than Vice President Harris. (Biden gets a 71%/25% rating with them.)

Harris: 63%/21% (+42) with 16% unsure. That's not much different than where she was in September 2019 (56%/17%). While she has a marginally higher positive score with Democrats than Buttigieg (69% vs. 66%), Democratic-leaning independents give her just a 43%/39% score.

Whitmer: 42%/19% (+23) with 49% unsure. A significant portion of the national audience is unfamiliar16 with her.

The mirror images of Trump and DeSantis

Things don't look quite as good for Trump, as he faces what's shaping up to be a serious threat to his quest to be the GOP nominee again next year.

By a 54% to 42%, Republicans and independents who lean their direction said they think they would have a better chance in 2024 with someone other than Trump. That's actually a slight improvement for Trump, considering 35% in November said Trump would give them the best chance at winning.

Still, the percentage saying they would be better off with someone else hasn't budged17. And there are clear cleavages — voters with college degrees, ones who make more than $50,000 a year and parents with children under 18 are far more likely to say they'd be better off with someone else, by 20 points or more in some cases.

That means a majority of Republicans are looking around for someone else, and the very people who think they have less of a chance with Trump seem to have DeSantis in the sights.

Look at how their favorability ratings among Republicans and Republican leaners divide:

Trump: 68% favorable, 25% unfavorable (+43) with just 7% unsure. He does best with white evangelical Christians18, whites without degrees, those who live in small towns or rural areas, and lower-income voters.

DeSantis: 66%/11% (+55) with almost a quarter unsure (23%). So DeSantis has some convincing to do. Depending on how he makes the sale, if he runs, he may have some room to grow. He is best liked by college grads, those who make more than $50,000 a year, people who live in big cities or the suburbs, and Republican-leaning independents. DeSantis is significantly better liked with those Republican leaners with a 63%/11% favorability rating (+52) as compared to Trump's 57%/33% (+24).

Haley: 41%/12% (+23) with almost half (46%) unsure. The former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the United Nations under Trump got into the race officially last week but still has a lot to prove to these voters.

Pence: 51%/30% (+21) with 19% unsure. Pence's base is supposed to be with white evangelical Christians. It's a major reason for why Trump put him on the ticket in 2016. But Pence is far less liked by the group than either Trump or DeSantis.

The live caller telephone survey, using cellphones and landlines, of more than 1,300 adults and about 1,200 registered was conducted last week by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, well after the president's State of the Union address. Where all adults are referred to, the survey has a margin15 of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points, meaning results could be about 3 points lower or higher. Where registered voters are referenced, it has a similar +/- 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

There were 570 Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. Where they're referenced, it's a +/- 5.1 percentage point margin. There were 460 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents interviewed. The margin for this subgroup is +/- 5.7 percentage points.


点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 standing 2hCzgo     
n.持续,地位;adj.永久的,不动的,直立的,不流动的
参考例句:
  • After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
  • They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。
2 trump LU1zK     
n.王牌,法宝;v.打出王牌,吹喇叭
参考例句:
  • He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
  • The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手,作为他的王牌。
3 slumps 1082c8057156c49f6f76483bf4a8f755     
萧条期( slump的名词复数 ); (个人、球队等的)低潮状态; (销售量、价格、价值等的)骤降; 猛跌
参考例句:
  • Deflation could emerge from simultaneous slumps in the world's three major economies. 如果世界经济三大主体同时衰退,通货紧缩就会出现。
  • This is the cycle of economic booms and slumps. 这是经济繁荣和经济萧条的周期变化。
4 transcript JgpzUp     
n.抄本,誊本,副本,肄业证书
参考例句:
  • A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
  • They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。
5 nomination BHMxw     
n.提名,任命,提名权
参考例句:
  • John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
  • Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。
6 protracted 7bbc2aee17180561523728a246b7f16b     
adj.拖延的;延长的v.拖延“protract”的过去式和过去分词
参考例句:
  • The war was protracted for four years. 战争拖延了四年。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • We won victory through protracted struggle. 经过长期的斗争,我们取得了胜利。 来自《简明英汉词典》
7 chaotic rUTyD     
adj.混沌的,一片混乱的,一团糟的
参考例句:
  • Things have been getting chaotic in the office recently.最近办公室的情况越来越乱了。
  • The traffic in the city was chaotic.这城市的交通糟透了。
8 withdrawal Cfhwq     
n.取回,提款;撤退,撤军;收回,撤销
参考例句:
  • The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
  • They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。
9 democrats 655beefefdcaf76097d489a3ff245f76     
n.民主主义者,民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
  • The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》
10 presidency J1HzD     
n.总统(校长,总经理)的职位(任期)
参考例句:
  • Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
  • Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。
11 rebound YAtz1     
v.弹回;n.弹回,跳回
参考例句:
  • The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
  • Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。
12 coalescing b795440b9ade4378fef3486b241378bc     
v.联合,合并( coalesce的现在分词 )
参考例句:
  • A mental model begins coalescing in their minds. 一个意识模型开始结合到他们的脑子里。 来自互联网
  • On the basis of coalescing this kind of element can separate oil from compressed air. 采用凝聚原理,分离压缩空气中的油份。 来自互联网
13 nominee FHLxv     
n.被提名者;被任命者;被推荐者
参考例句:
  • His nominee for vice president was elected only after a second ballot.他提名的副总统在两轮投票后才当选。
  • Mr.Francisco is standing as the official nominee for the post of District Secretary.弗朗西斯科先生是行政书记职位的正式提名人。
14 vice NU0zQ     
n.坏事;恶习;[pl.]台钳,老虎钳;adj.副的
参考例句:
  • He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
  • They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。
15 margin 67Mzp     
n.页边空白;差额;余地,余裕;边,边缘
参考例句:
  • We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
  • The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。
16 unfamiliar uk6w4     
adj.陌生的,不熟悉的
参考例句:
  • I am unfamiliar with the place and the people here.我在这儿人地生疏。
  • The man seemed unfamiliar to me.这人很面生。
17 budged acd2fdcd1af9cf1b3478f896dc0484cf     
v.(使)稍微移动( budge的过去式和过去分词 );(使)改变主意,(使)让步
参考例句:
  • Old Bosc had never budged an inch--he was totally indifferent. 老包斯克一直连动也没有动,他全然无所谓。 来自辞典例句
  • Nobody budged you an inch. 别人一丁点儿都算计不了你。 来自辞典例句
18 Christians 28e6e30f94480962cc721493f76ca6c6     
n.基督教徒( Christian的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • Christians of all denominations attended the conference. 基督教所有教派的人都出席了这次会议。
  • His novel about Jesus caused a furore among Christians. 他关于耶稣的小说激起了基督教徒的公愤。
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