美国国家公共电台 NPR--The Fed must decide whether to press ahead with raising interest rates

The Fed must decide whether to press ahead with raising interest rates

Transcript¹

NPR's Leila Fadel talks to Peter Conti-Brown of The Wharton School about whether the Fed keeps raising interest rates. The increases so far have eased inflation, but also put stress on some banks.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

This afternoon, the Federal Reserve will announce whether it will continue to raise interest rates. The Fed has been trying to get inflation under control without wrecking² the economy. And now there's the turmoil³ in the U.S. banking⁴ sector⁵, and raising interest rates could cause more instability. So what does the Fed do? To discuss that, we have Peter Conti-Brown. He's a financial historian and legal scholar who teaches at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, and he joins us this morning from Ambler⁶, Pa.

Good morning, Peter, and thanks for being on the program.

PETER CONTI-BROWN: Good morning. Glad to be here.

FADEL: So what should the Fed do? Should they raise interest rates to cool inflation or pause to help banks facing instability?

CONTI-BROWN: The Fed faces two bad options. You know, three weeks ago, they were signaling that they were eager to gallop⁷ toward breaking inflation's back with a 50-basis-point hike. And then a week and a half ago, we have a banking crisis that the Fed's actions may have exacerbated⁸. And so now we have to understand how the two sides of the Fed's house - the crisis fighters and the inflation fighters - are going to talk to each other, if they talk to each other at all.

FADEL: Well, first, what did the Fed do to contribute to that banking crisis? And then let's get into those two sides.

CONTI-BROWN: It was a profound failure of regulation and supervision⁹. Banks exist in a kind of public-private partnership¹⁰ managing risk in the financial system. The public side of that is the bank supervisors¹¹. They work for the Fed, among other agencies. But for Silicon¹² Valley Bank, this was all the Federal Reserve. And the Fed spotted¹³ these very poor risk mismanagement practices and did not stop them. And so that's the first big problem.

The second is they rushed to declare that this was a financial crisis, like 2008, like in 2020, by invoking¹⁴ their emergency authorities, telling the markets, telling everyone simultaneously¹⁵, hey, the crisis fighters - they're here. But also this is, in fact, a financial crisis. And this is related to the Fed's interest rate policy because this bank's - the risks they mismanaged were, in fact, that we are in an aggressive rate-hiking cycle, a cycle that the Federal Reserve on the monetary¹⁶ policy side has been pushing.

FADEL: What do you think of the Fed's approach to inflation so far? Has it been too aggressive?

CONTI-BROWN: The problem is that monetary policy acts on a lag. Inflation is a very serious problem. There's no doubt about it. Monetary policy is one of the policy responses. But the problem is that we've been moving so fast so far that some banks haven't been able to keep up. And so I think it's appropriate that the Fed has been raising interest rates. They've been trying to telegraph their intent loud and proud about how far they're willing to go to break inflation. What they didn't do is monitor well how that interest rate policy is destabilizing some of the least well-managed banks.

FADEL: Now, you talked about how the Fed's - are facing two bad options, but they are facing that decision today. If you were advising the Fed today, what would you tell them to do?

CONTI-BROWN: As a Fed historian, I would say if you look back at Federal Open Market Committee decisions in periods of financial distress¹⁷, it's almost always been a pause or a cut. I'm not saying the Fed should cut its interest rates. We also rarely see the case where we have acute financial distress while we have growing inflation. But I would recommend a pause. It's not great.

The Fed wants to maintain its credibility as an inflation fighter, and whipsawing between 50-basis-point hikes and a pause doesn't do a lot to bolster¹⁸ that credibility. At the same time, we are in the midst of not knowing how bad this financial crisis could become. And every time you raise interest rates, you're creating more stress on poorly managed banks and tipping us, perhaps, into something that could truly be a systemic crisis.

FADEL: Now, you used the term crisis several times in this conversation. That's how you would describe this moment - as a financial crisis?

CONTI-BROWN: I would call it a banking crisis almost as a legal term. When the Federal Reserve and the Treasury¹⁹ invoked²⁰ their authorities, they had to declare that it is a crisis. It's the only way they could do the big guarantees and the big provisions of liquidity²¹ that they have done. So in that sense, I'm just following the Fed's lead.

FADEL: Peter Conti-Brown of the Wharton School, thank you so much for your time.

CONTI-BROWN: I was glad to be here. Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 wrecking   

破坏

参考例句：

• He teed off on his son for wrecking the car. 他严厉训斥他儿子毁坏了汽车。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Instead of wrecking the valley, the waters are put to use making electricity. 现在河水不但不在流域内肆疟，反而被人们用来生产电力。 来自辞典例句

3 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

4 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

5 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

6 ambler   

n.以溜步法走的马，慢慢走的人

参考例句：

• Moving its six crab like legs was the easiest part for Ambler. 动动六条蟹爪似的腿对“漫步者”而言还算最轻松的事。 来自互联网
• A robot cannot have a remotely linked head, as Ambler did. 一个宇航机器人不能象“漫步者”那样，身在太空，头在地球。 来自互联网

7 gallop   

v./n.(马或骑马等)飞奔；飞速发展

参考例句：

• They are coming at a gallop towards us.他们正朝着我们飞跑过来。
• The horse slowed to a walk after its long gallop.那匹马跑了一大阵后慢下来缓步而行。

8 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 supervision   

n.监督，管理

参考例句：

• The work was done under my supervision.这项工作是在我的监督之下完成的。
• The old man's will was executed under the personal supervision of the lawyer.老人的遗嘱是在律师的亲自监督下执行的。

10 partnership   

n.合作关系，伙伴关系

参考例句：

• The company has gone into partnership with Swiss Bank Corporation.这家公司已经和瑞士银行公司建立合作关系。
• Martin has taken him into general partnership in his company.马丁已让他成为公司的普通合伙人。

11 supervisors   

n.监督者，管理者( supervisor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• I think the best technical people make the best supervisors. 我认为最好的技术人员可以成为最好的管理人员。 来自辞典例句
• Even the foremen or first-level supervisors have a staffing responsibility. 甚至领班或第一线的监督人员也有任用的责任。 来自辞典例句

12 silicon   

n.硅(旧名矽)

参考例句：

• This company pioneered the use of silicon chip.这家公司开创了使用硅片的方法。
• A chip is a piece of silicon about the size of a postage stamp.芯片就是一枚邮票大小的硅片。

13 spotted   

adj.有斑点的，斑纹的，弄污了的

参考例句：

• The milkman selected the spotted cows,from among a herd of two hundred.牛奶商从一群200头牛中选出有斑点的牛。
• Sam's shop stocks short spotted socks.山姆的商店屯积了有斑点的短袜。

14 invoking   

v.援引( invoke的现在分词 )；行使（权利等）；祈求救助；恳求

参考例句：

• You can customise the behavior of the Asynchronous Server and hence re-brand it by defining your own command set for invoking services. 通过定义自己调用服务的命令集，您可以定制自定义异步服务器的行为，通过为调用服务定义自己的命令集从而对它重新标记。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• You can customize the behavior of the Asynchronous Server and hence re-brand it by defining your own command set for invoking services. 通过定义自己调用服务的命令集，您可以定制自定义异步服务器的行为，通过为调用服务定义自己的命令集从而对它重新标记。 来自辞典例句

15 simultaneously   

adv.同时发生地，同时进行地

参考例句：

• The radar beam can track a number of targets almost simultaneously.雷达波几乎可以同时追着多个目标。
• The Windows allow a computer user to execute multiple programs simultaneously.Windows允许计算机用户同时运行多个程序。

16 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

17 distress   

n.苦恼，痛苦，不舒适；不幸；vt.使悲痛

参考例句：

• Nothing could alleviate his distress.什么都不能减轻他的痛苦。
• Please don't distress yourself.请你不要忧愁了。

18 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

19 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

20 invoked   

v.援引( invoke的过去式和过去分词 )；行使（权利等）；祈求救助；恳求

参考例句：

• It is unlikely that libel laws will be invoked. 不大可能诉诸诽谤法。
• She had invoked the law in her own defence. 她援引法律为自己辩护。 来自《简明英汉词典》

21 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。