美国国家公共电台 NPR--Economists warn if debt standoff isn't solved, it would kick-start a recession

Economists² warn if debt standoff isn't solved, it would kick-start a recession

Transcript³

NPR's Leila Fadel speaks with Mark Zandi, chief economist¹ of Moody's Analytics, about how investors⁴ should be thinking about the debt ceiling standoff.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

For a look at how financial markets and investors are being affected⁵ by the debt ceiling impasse⁶, we turn now to Mark Zandi. He's a chief - he's chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

Good morning, Mark.

MARK ZANDI: Good morning, Leila.

FADEL: So, Mark, this country is less than two weeks away from the day the U.S. may not be able to pay its debt. How is the standoff over the debt ceiling impacting people with an investment portfolio⁷ right now?

ZANDI: Well, Leila, so far, investors are very nonchalant. There's some evidence that they're a bit nervous. You can see that yields on one-year - excuse me - one-month treasury⁸ securities have jumped. And that's because investors are worried about what happens on the other side of the X Date, the date when the Treasury doesn't have enough cash to pay everyone, and they're worried that they might not get their money on time.

There's some evidence in the so-called credit default swap⁹ market of some concern. That's the market where investors can go buy insurance if there's a default on the Treasury debt. They have to pay a premium¹⁰ for that insurance. And that premium has jumped in price. But other than that, no big deal. I mean, nothing's going on in the stock market, nothing going on in the broader corporate¹¹ bond market. So so far, I think investors are taking this all in stride, thinking that they've seen this movie before.

FADEL: What advice do you have right now to regular people with investments? That includes many people's retirements¹².

ZANDI: Well, do nothing. I mean, you, I, most Americans are in this for the long haul. We should be saving regularly, putting cash away, investing in stocks and other assets consistent with how much savings¹³ we have and what our risk tolerance¹⁴ is. And we - this is for the long run. We shouldn't be focused on the here and now. So I'd say do nothing. You know, psychologically, you might want to buckle¹⁵ in because I suspect we are going to see some bad days in the stock market here dead ahead. It may, in fact, be necessary to get lawmakers to sign on the dotted line and increase the debt limit. We might need to see that turmoil¹⁶. But don't do anything. Just buckle in. And if you don't need to look at it, don't look at it.

FADEL: What happens, though, if - I mean, as you say, people are saying we've seen this movie before, an expectation that even though there's all this brinksmanship, there will be a deal. But what happens if there is no deal by June 1?

ZANDI: It's going to be a mess for sure. You know, if we breach¹⁷, then the Treasury has to make some tough decisions about who gets paid, who doesn't get paid. I suspect they're going to pay bondholders, and everyone else that the government owes money to will get their money late. So it will be chaotic¹⁸. The economy is going to likely go into recession, and the longer it drags on, the more damage it will do, the more severe. And then words like catastrophic, you know, come to mind. And, of course, we'll be paying a price forever because investors are going to demand a higher interest rate to compensate¹⁹ for the risk that this will happen again.

So it'll be a complete mess. So in that scenario²⁰, yeah, we're going to be a lot less wealthy. But again, I don't know that there's anything that you and I, as individual investors, can do here. We just have to buckle in and hope these lawmakers get it together in time.

FADEL: And if they do get it together in time and they don't default, are there still long-term impacts on the markets? And how does that affect the average person?

ZANDI: Yeah, absolutely, because, you know, investors are looking at this and saying, look, this is pretty dysfunctional, and why do I - why would I think this is going to get any better? You know, the next time we come down this this road, we're going to see the same kind of turmoil and maybe even worse, because each time we go down this road, we get closer and closer to breaching²¹ and defaulting. So I think investors are going to say, hey, you know, you guys aren't money good. You're not the triple-A credit on the planet. You've got to pay me more in interest. And, you know, even a little bit higher interest rate on a lot of debt is very expensive to us as taxpayers²². So, yeah, we're going to pay for this.

FADEL: Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Thank you.

ZANDI: Thank you.

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

6 impasse   

n.僵局；死路

参考例句：

• The government had reached an impasse.政府陷入绝境。
• Negotiations seemed to have reached an impasse.谈判似乎已经陷入僵局。

7 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

8 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

9 swap   

n.交换；vt.交换，用...作交易

参考例句：

• I will swap you my bicycle for your radio.我想拿我的自行车换你的收音机。
• This comic was a swap that I got from Nick.这本漫画书是我从尼克那里换来的。

10 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

11 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

12 retirements   

退休( retirement的名词复数 )； 退职； 退役； 退休的实例

参考例句：

• We've had two retirements in our office this year. 今年我们办公室已有二人退休。
• Those may take the form of sackings redundancies, temporary layoffs or retirements. 这些形式有开除，作为编余人员，暂时解雇或退休。

13 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

14 tolerance   

n.宽容；容忍，忍受；耐药力；公差

参考例句：

• Tolerance is one of his strengths.宽容是他的一个优点。
• Human beings have limited tolerance of noise.人类对噪音的忍耐力有限。

15 buckle   

n.扣子，带扣；v.把...扣住，由于压力而弯曲

参考例句：

• The two ends buckle at the back.带子两端在背后扣起来。
• She found it hard to buckle down.她很难专心做一件事情。

16 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

17 breach   

n.违反，不履行；破裂；vt.冲破，攻破

参考例句：

• We won't have any breach of discipline.我们不允许任何破坏纪律的现象。
• He was sued for breach of contract.他因不履行合同而被起诉。

18 chaotic   

adj.混沌的，一片混乱的，一团糟的

参考例句：

• Things have been getting chaotic in the office recently.最近办公室的情况越来越乱了。
• The traffic in the city was chaotic.这城市的交通糟透了。

19 compensate   

vt.补偿，赔偿；酬报 vi.弥补；补偿；抵消

参考例句：

• She used her good looks to compensate her lack of intelligence. 她利用她漂亮的外表来弥补智力的不足。
• Nothing can compensate for the loss of one's health. 一个人失去了键康是不可弥补的。

20 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

21 breaching   

攻破( breach的过去式 )； 破坏，违反

参考例句：

• The company was prosecuted for breaching the Health and Safety Act. 这家公司被控违反《卫生安全条例》。
• Third, an agency can abuse its discretion by breaching certain principles of judge-made law. 第三，行政机关会因违反某些法官制定的法律原则而构成滥用自由裁量权。

22 taxpayers   

纳税人，纳税的机构( taxpayer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Finance for education comes from taxpayers. 教育经费来自纳税人。
• She was declaiming against the waste of the taxpayers' money. 她慷慨陈词猛烈抨击对纳税人金钱的浪费。