美国国家公共电台 NPR--What Turkey's presidential election could mean for the U.S. and Europe

What Turkey's presidential election could mean for the U.S. and Europe

Transcript¹

Turkish voters will return to the polls on May 28 for a runoff election after longtime leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu both failed to win more than 50% of the vote on Sunday.

The presidential contest comes at a pivotal moment for the country, which is grappling with issues from high inflation to the aftermath of the deadly February earthquakes that left more than 50,000 dead and millions homeless. Many in Turkey have criticized the government's slow response and see the election as a referendum on it.

There are also implications on the world stage: Turkey, which straddles Europe and the Middle East, is a key member of NATO.

It has maintained relations with Russia since the invasion of Ukraine and played a major role in pushing for peace talks and brokering² a Ukrainian grain export deal aimed at easing global food shortages. Turkey recently cleared the way for Finland to join NATO, but is blocking Sweden from joining the alliance (over concerns that Stockholm is harboring groups, including Kurdish militants³, that it considers terrorist organizations).

Kilicdaroglu — a former bureaucrat⁴ who leads Turkey's main secular⁵ opposition⁶ party — has spoken about restoring Turkey's relationships with the U.S. and Europe (while maintaining its relations with Moscow).

Erdogan has taken steps to consolidate⁷ presidential power during his 20 years in charge, raising concerns about democracy and human rights.

Turkey has been fulfilling its commitments within NATO despite Erdogan's rhetoric⁸ — while also creating some difficulties for it, notes Alper Co?kun, a retired⁹ Turkish diplomat¹⁰ who is now a senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

He says the outcome of the election could potentially mean big changes for NATO and the region as a whole.

"A lot is at stake not only for Turkey but also for beyond," says Co?kun.

What an Erdogan victory would mean

Despite concerns about Turkish democracy and human rights under Erdogan's tenure¹¹, he remains¹² popular with his conservative base and defied pre-election forecasts by taking 49.4% of the vote on Sunday.

Erdogan seems to have been able to "tap into the public sentiments" better than his opponent, Co?kun tells Morning Edition's A Martínez. But he adds that it wasn't exactly a level playing field, since Erdogan had the "full force" of state media behind him and could promote a certain narrative¹³.

Erdogan's reputation has evolved in the years since he came to power, Co?kun explains.

The leader who once advocated for Turkey's accession to the European Union is "no longer seen very much as a like-minded person among Turkey's Western allies."

Co?kun attributes that to democratic backsliding, multiple forms of misconduct and the government's earthquake response, which many see as underscoring the problems with the centralized form of government and executive presidential system to which Erdogan had transitioned the country.

"Initially¹⁴ he's had a good relationship and good standing¹⁵, including with the U.S. But with a changing trajectory¹⁶ and more disruptive actions on his part I think — though the U.S. or Europe doesn't say it in so many words — they wouldn't have minded a change in political guard in Turkey," Co?kun adds.

What a Kilicdaroglu victory would mean

Erdogan faces his strongest challenge so far in Kilicdaroglu, a former accountant with a reputation as a clean politician and champion of secular values. Kilicdaroglu is backed by six opposition parties and won nearly 45% of the vote in the first round.

Kilicdaroglu has campaigned on reversing Turkey into a parliamentary form of government, as well as restoring trust with the U.S. and Europe.

"The opposition has put forward a foreign policy agenda that seems to imply that they would reorient Turkey — not forfeiting¹⁷ its relations and the significance of its engagement with countries like Russia or even with China — but making Turkey's position in the Western security architecture more central, Co?kun says.

Analysts¹⁸ believe a Kilicdaroglu victory would mean a return to democratic norms, pro-NATO foreign policy (at least in some respects) and more cooperation with the U.S.

"The problems that Turkey has with its European allies, even with the U.S., I think, would become more manageable," Co?kun says. "So the relationship would become more predictable and easier to handle, despite many challenges that would probably continue to exist."

What the U.S. is saying

The Biden administration has so far avoided picking sides.

"I just hope ... whoever wins wins," Biden said on Sunday. "There's enough problems in that part of the world right now."

That hasn't always been his stance. In 2020, when Biden was still a candidate, video surfaced of him calling Erdogan an autocrat¹⁹ and suggesting the U.S. should support the opposition — comments that Turkey condemned²⁰ as "interventionist" at the time.

Erdogan has actually been capitalizing on that criticism, Co?kun says.

"He has been referring to that, suggesting that the opposition is working in tandem²¹ with foreign forces against him," he says. "And that galvanizes his public support and consolidates²² his base, and he's done that during this campaign as well."

Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu are expected to meet with Nationalist third-party candidate Sinan Ogan, who has suggested his endorsement²³ could secure someone the presidency²⁴. Analysts say a deal between Erdogan and Ogan could win him another term, NPR's Peter Kenyon reports.

If that happens, Co?kun expects Turkey to continue down its current foreign policy trajectory.

"Turkey and its Western allies and the United States have settled into a transactional relationship," he adds. "And that's really not a resilience form of relationship. It's more unpredictable and I presume that should Erdogan remain in power that would not change much."

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 brokering   

v.做掮客（或中人等）( broker的现在分词 )；作为权力经纪人进行谈判；以中间人等身份安排…

参考例句：

• Intertwined with these were rivalry, power brokering, and patronage. 然而也不乏有抗争、强权操纵与任命特权交织其中。 来自互联网
• Kingston Quest Can Assist Your Company In Negotiations, Brokering, Agency Services, Sourcing Factories Or Property. 金士顿追求，可帮助您的公司在谈判中，经纪，代理服务，货源工厂或财产。 来自互联网

3 militants   

激进分子，好斗分子( militant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The militants have been sporadically fighting the government for years. 几年来，反叛分子一直对政府实施零星的战斗。
• Despite the onslaught, Palestinian militants managed to fire off rockets. 尽管如此，巴勒斯坦的激进分子仍然发射导弹。

4 bureaucrat   

n. 官僚作风的人，官僚，官僚政治论者

参考例句：

• He was just another faceless bureaucrat.他只不过是一个典型呆板的官员。
• The economy is still controlled by bureaucrats.经济依然被官僚们所掌控。

5 secular   

n.牧师，凡人；adj.世俗的，现世的，不朽的

参考例句：

• We live in an increasingly secular society.我们生活在一个日益非宗教的社会。
• Britain is a plural society in which the secular predominates.英国是个世俗主导的多元社会。

6 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

7 consolidate   

v.使加固，使加强；(把...)联为一体，合并

参考例句：

• The two banks will consolidate in July next year. 这两家银行明年7月将合并。
• The government hoped to consolidate ten states to form three new ones.政府希望把十个州合并成三个新的州。

8 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

9 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

10 diplomat   

n.外交官，外交家；能交际的人，圆滑的人

参考例句：

• The diplomat threw in a joke, and the tension was instantly relieved.那位外交官插进一个笑话，紧张的气氛顿时缓和下来。
• He served as a diplomat in Russia before the war.战前他在俄罗斯当外交官。

11 tenure   

n.终身职位；任期；(土地)保有权，保有期

参考例句：

• He remained popular throughout his tenure of the office of mayor.他在担任市长的整个任期内都深得民心。
• Land tenure is a leading political issue in many parts of the world.土地的保有权在世界很多地区是主要的政治问题。

12 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

13 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

14 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

15 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

16 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

17 forfeiting   

（因违反协议、犯规、受罚等）丧失，失去( forfeit的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• In his eyes, giving up his job and forfeiting his wages amounted practically to suicide. 辞事，让工钱，在祥子看就差不多等于自杀。 来自汉英文学 - 骆驼祥子
• That would be acknowledging the Railroad's ownership right away-forfeiting their rights for good. 这一来不是就等于干脆承认铁路公司的所有权-永久放弃他们自己的主权吗？

18 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

19 autocrat   

n.独裁者；专横的人

参考例句：

• He was an accomplished politician and a crafty autocrat.他是个有造诣的政治家，也是个狡黠的独裁者。
• The nobles tried to limit the powers of the autocrat without success.贵族企图限制专制君主的权力,但没有成功。

20 condemned   

adj. 被责难的, 被宣告有罪的 动词condemn的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• He condemned the hypocrisy of those politicians who do one thing and say another. 他谴责了那些说一套做一套的政客的虚伪。
• The policy has been condemned as a regressive step. 这项政策被认为是一种倒退而受到谴责。

21 tandem   

n.同时发生；配合；adv.一个跟着一个地；纵排地；adj.（两匹马）前后纵列的

参考例句：

• Malcolm's contract will run in tandem with his existing one.马尔科姆的合同将与他手头的合同同时生效。
• He is working in tandem with officials of the Serious Fraud Office.他正配合欺诈重案办公室的官员工作。

22 consolidates   

巩固

参考例句：

• We've made a good start, now it's time to consolidate. 我们有了一个良好的开端，现在应该加以巩固。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Yuan Shih-k'ai, a would-be Oriental Bonaparte, now attempted to consolidate his power. 当时，一度可能成为东方波拿巴的袁世凯试图巩固他的权力。 来自英汉非文学 - 新闻报道

23 endorsement   

n.背书；赞成，认可，担保；签(注)，批注

参考例句：

• We are happy to give the product our full endorsement.我们很高兴给予该产品完全的认可。
• His presidential campaign won endorsement from several celebrities.他参加总统竞选得到一些社会名流的支持。

24 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。